Union v NYCFC: Match Preview & Betting Notes

Photo Credit: MLSSoccer.com

Killer Mentality

The Philadelphia Union travelled to the nation's capital last weekend and earned their most eye-opening victory to date. Although D.C. looked competitive early on, Philly would go on to score 6 goals and secure the 6-0 clean sheet. We haven't seen that type of performance this season, at least not to that extent. The 2022 squad was special because they had that killer mentality, and it's something that the Union lost during Curtin's last two seasons. Kudos to Bradley Carnell for having his team focused and ready to play, even after the frustrations against Nashville and Vancouver.

Unfortunately, the victory did not come without a price. Quinn Sullivan left Saturday's match after injuring his knee in the early minutes of the game. Sullivan went to social media and shared that he had torn his ACL and would be out for the season. This is a major blow for a team that thrived with Quinn and Iloski together in the midfield, and his absence will be felt for the rest of the season. Indy Vassilev will have large shoes to fill as he tries to replace Quinn's production.

Pre-Match Press Conference with Bradley Carnell

Carnell started his press conference by discussing injuries. Jeremy Rafanello (who left the D.C. match) will be out for Saturday's game with a hamstring injury. Indy Vassilev, who also suffered a knock in D.C., and Mikael Uhre are currently dealing with injuries. As of now, they are limited in training and it seems they could be game-time decisions for Coach. Towards the end of the presser, Carnell also mentioned that Kai is fine, even though he appeared hurt during the D.C. match.

Regarding Quinn's injury, Carnell highlighted Sullivan's positivity and energy since his injury, and that has helped the club with overcoming the unfortunate news. Bradley seems optimistic with Quinn's recovery and looks forward to his return.

On the other Sullivan, Carnell says that Cavan will be with the team for the next few days and will then depart next week for his international call-up. When discussing the team's midfield depth, Coach praised Ben Bender and how he's improved in his versatility. With Rafanello and Quinn out, and Indy Vassilev on the mend, Ben Bender could see some considerable minutes over these next two matches. Lastly, Carnell mentioned that Danley can play in the attacking midfield position, and he showed some of that against D.C.

Finally, when discussing the Shield opportunity this weekend, Carnell mentioned that the team is keeping themselves humble and focused for this weekend's contest.

If you'd like to watch Bradley's presser, I've included it here.

NYCFC Preview

Let's start this preview with some significant news for NYC. Matt Freese, who was on the last Shield team for the Union, suffered a head injury against the Red Bulls on Saturday. As of Friday morning, it seems like Matt has cleared any concussion concerns and should be available for Saturday's game. We'll have a better idea of his status on Saturday afternoon.

NYC also has three players on yellow card accumulation warnings: Julian Fernandez, Maxi Moralez, and Andres Perea. Westfield is on the list for Philly, but he is away with the U-20 U.S. squad.

NYC is entering this match in good form. They've won 4 of the last 5 games, with victories against NYRB, Charlotte, Columbus, and Chicago. That's 4 wins against teams in the playoffs or fighting for a playoff spot, and their only loss was a 4-0 defeat to Miami. NYC has been scoring in bunches too. They scored three goals against Chicago, Columbus, and NYRB, and two goals against Charlotte.

NYC has moved toward the top of the Eastern Conference standings. They are currently in third place with 56 points and a 17W-5D-10L record, and there is a very real chance that they finish the MLS season in 3rd or 4th place. Similar to Chicago and New England, NYC isn't a bad road squad. They're 6W-5D-5L away from their home arena, and they've scored 49 goals so far this season, with 9 coming from set pieces.

NYC's goal scoring is led by Alonso Martinez who has 17 scores this season, while Hannes Wolf has 11. Wolf also has 5 assists this year, and he's 2 assists behind Maxi Moralez who has 7. Even at 38 years old, Maxi continues to show that he can be a dangerous playmaker in MLS.

Unfortunately for NYC, Alonso Martinez suffered a quad injury in September, and he saw limited time against Miami on September 24th. New York may have clinched a playoff spot, but they could potentially fall to 5th place if Charlotte and Miami earn points in these last two weeks. I'll be curious to see if Coach Pascal Jansen gives Alonso any minutes this weekend considering this lingering injury. In Alonso's place, Nicolas and Julian Fernandez will look to find the back of the net. Nicolas scored an early goal against the Red Bulls last weekend, while Julian scored the game winner against Columbus on September 17th.

It's been a while since the Union played NYC, which ended in a 1-0 loss in the Big Apple. Alonso Martinez scored in the 55th minute when Andrew Rick came out too far and misplayed a ball outside the box. It was one of Rick's few mistakes this season, but Andre Blake should be in goal this weekend when New York comes to town.

Overall, the Union and New York have developed a competitive rivalry, and they've had high scoring affairs prior to the most recent match. Last year, the Union beat NYC 5-1, while New York beat us earlier in the season 2-1. In 2023, Philly earned 2-1 and 3-1 victories over NYC. I fully expect this to be another tight match, and both teams should be finding the back of the net.

Betting Notes

The Union enter Saturday's contest as home favorites. Draftkings has Philly ML at -115, Draw at +270, and NYCFC Moneyline at +270. As I mentioned above, these teams have typically scored on each other, and Both Teams to Score is -170. Draftkings also provides a 2-leg parlay of Both Teams to Score and over 2.5 total goals at -110. For reference, over 2.5 total goals is -150.

I am optimistic that the Union will score on Saturday, but a big "if" is the availability of Indiana Vassilev. He and Rafanello could be out Saturday, so Coach has a tough decision to make. Ben Bender and Cavan Sullivan are options, but they're inexperienced and may not be able to rise to the occasion. Alejandro Bedoya is another option at attacking mid, and he would certainly bring a high IQ and ball security as a 10. Lastly, Coach did mention the option of Danley Jean Jacques. If Bueno is slotted next to Lukic, Danley and Milan would start together behind the forwards. You could lose some value on your plays if you wait until the lineups come out, but Vassilev's injury, along with Carnell's rotation, are legitimate concerns to keep in mind.

Speaking of Bender, his name is near the top of the Player Assists totals on Draftkings. 1+ Assist for Union players is: Kai +310, Bender +320, Vassilev +400, and Iloski +650. We saw Iloski's Assist number at +700 last week, and he has a very real opportunity to hit that again against New York City. Again, see how Carnell approaches the lineup and Danley's position. DJJ's 1+ Assist total is +800, which is a great play if he does end up playing the 10.

I'm focusing again on Danley for Goals and Shots. 1+ Shot on Target for Danley is +160, while his Anytime goalscorer number is +800. Next, Bruno and Tai are expected to start against NY, but they hold much different Player Shots numbers. 2+ Shots for Bruno is -140, while Tai is +145 for 2+ shots. Baribo missed last week because of yellow card accumulation, and with Uhre possibly injured, Baribo could see a full 90 minutes. For Anytime Goalscorer, Baribo is +110, Damiani is +205, and Iloski is +260. Honestly, I think that Bruno Damiani number should be closer to Tai's price. Bruno is entering this match in good form, and I'm surprised that the books do not reflect that.

Lastly, an interesting play is Players Shots on Target - Outside of the Box. Milan Iloski has been unafraid to test the keeper from deep, and he's made that a staple of his attack since joining the Union. His 1+ Shot from outside the box is -260 on Draftkings. If you pair that with Union moneyline, you get a +142 price. Honestly, that's pretty good if you ask me.

Final Thought

I've always said that the 2020 Supporters' Shield win had an asterisk on it. Philadelphia played the Revolution multiple times during that Covid year and earned several points from beating up on them. This year feels different though. The Union have been a top MLS team throughout the season, and this Shield victory would cement this squad as one of the best teams in this club's short history. Now, it's time for Carnell's team to step up and give this home crowd some silverware.

AAT Sports Network will be doing Pre and Post Game Coverage, so please tune in on Facebook and Youtube as we discuss the Union v NYCFC. Doop!