Philadelphia Union v Inter Miami CF - Match Preview and Betting Notes

Photograph Credit: Philadelphia Union

The Boys in Blue return to action on Sunday evening and take on the MLS Villains, Inter Miami. In this preview, we will discuss the Union's 1-1 draw to Columbus and prep for a daunting task against Messi and Friends. As a reminder, this week's matchup is Sunday night at 7pm!

Subpar at Subaru Park

The Union left the Orlando match with some momentum. Despite conceding late, the offense finally woke up and showed signs of promise. Unfortunately, that offensive production wasn't brought back to Chester, PA. Columbus scored a 10th minute goal and kept Philly out of their net until Anello took it upon himself to generate offense. The Florida native slotted a well-struck pass into the box, and Milan Iloski cleanly finished it for his 5th goal in all competitions. All of the sudden there were signs of hope and energy at Subaru Park, which had been fairly quiet for most of the match. However, that electric feeling disappeared again when the final whistle blew.

Sure, Philly didn't lose, but this was another match that felt like a loss. The Boys in Blue have now completed 14 MLS matches and still sit in dead last with a 1W-4D-9L record. We are the only MLS team with less than 10 points, and even Sporting Kansas City has turned it around with two consecutive wins. Now, Subaru Park will remain quiet for two months, as the Union do not return to Chester until their home match against New York Red Bulls on Wednesday, July 22nd. This will be the first game of a three-game homestand that includes a visit from Seattle and Atlanta. I don't know how this team will look after the World Cup break, but a successful three-game home stand would certainly rejuvenate the fanbase.

Miami Preview

I know we are all looking forward to the World Cup break, but the Union still have one more match during the "first half" of their 2026 campaign. On Sunday, we visit Nu Stadium and take on a Miami team that is, once again, expected to compete for MLS Cup. The Herons are currently 8W-4D-2L and sit in second place of the Eastern Conference. Despite a dominant 7W-1D-1L record on the road, it hasn't been as smooth at home. Inter Miami is currently 1W-3D-1L in their own arena, with their first win at Nu Stadium coming last weekend against the Timbers. If you're looking for a silver lining, at least the Union won't be Miami's first win in their new confines.

The Florida squad is winning games and scoring goals at a consistent clip as well. Miami has 33 goals in MLS, with 22 coming in open play, 7 off set pieces, and 2 from a free kick. They also have a +9 goal differential and have conceded 24 scores in 14 matches. As expected, all eyes will be on Lionel Messi. The Argentinian superstar has 12 goals and 5 assists in 13 matches, with an average FotMob rating of 8.43. Additionally, Messi has been in World Cup form over the last month. Lionel has scored and earned an assist in 4 consecutive matches with a total of 5 goals and 5 assists since May 2nd. Say what you want about Messi, but he's an incredible talent and I expect him to continue his scoring streak on Sunday.

Of course, there are other players to discuss besides Messi. For example, German Berterame (who played with Monterrey the last four seasons) has 5 goals this year, while Telasco Segovia already has 6 assists. On the other side of the pitch, the Herons have a reliable keeper in between the posts. Dayne St. Clair spent six seasons with Minnesota United before signing with the Florida team this offseason. The Canadian keeper has 2 clean sheets in 13 matches and came up with 4 saves in Miami's win against the Timbers.

Finally, the hosts are coming into Sunday's match in good form. They have won 5 of their last 7 matches and are currently on a three-game winning streak where they've scored a total of 11 goals. These three wins come after Miami coughed up a three-goal lead to Orlando City SC on May 2nd. Needless to say, this team is a scoring juggernaut that should continue to flex their muscles against a weak Philly side.

Player Availability and Betting Notes

For injuries, Inter Miami is missing Tadeo Allende (knee) and Santi Morales (adductor). For Philly, their list is a long one. Bueno (ankle), Korzeniowski (knee), Sery (shoulder), and Q. Sullivan (knee) are out. Frankie (hip) and Indiana (head) are both questionable.

Unfortunately, we do have one player suspended too. Olwethu Makhanya was on yellow card accumulation warning last week, but he earned a yellow and will miss Sunday night's match. Miami is not missing anyone due to suspension, but they do have Yannick Bright. Micael, and Rodrigo De Paul on accumulation warning. Philly only has Sery carrying a warning, but he's injured.

There is absolutely zero surprise with who I think will win on Sunday, and DraftKings supports my thinking. Inter Miami is -235 on the moneyline, +400 for the draw, and a whopping +450 for Philly to earn a W. Typically, the match goal totals are displayed at 2.5. Instead, the 3.5 is listed and total match goals is -115 over 3.5. Additionally, Miami's team total over is -116 over 2.5 So, the books think that Miami is going to score and score 3+ goals. I can't say I blame them there, I'm expecting that too.

In a situation where one team is so heavily favored in multiple categories, it can be useful to find a two-leg parlay to bring down the price a bit. For example, Total Match Goals over 2.5 (-290) + Miami ML (-235) is a reasonable -150. Unless Miami's coach (Guillermo Hoyos) decides to sit several players, I am fully expecting the Herons to win and score 3 or more goals against this inefficient Union side. Also, with the Union's backline on life support, this is a play worth taking.

I don't typically jump to Anytime Goalscorer right away, but I needed to address the Messi situation. Considering who he is, along with his dominant form of late, his props are all expensive. Lionel Anytime Goalscorer is -200, 4+ Shots on Target is +155, and 1+ Assist is +120. Again, similar to the previous bets, I understand why you'd take a chance on a Messi goal contribution or Shot on Target. However, play around with other bets to help lower the price. For now, 1+ Assist is probably the only Messi prop I'm taking without placing it in a parlay.

Again, I don't like most of the lines for this game, but I was intrigued by Dayne St. Clair 3+ Saves at -105. Miami may be scoring a bunch, but they're not exactly a stout defense. I looked back at the last few matches and found the following numbers for St. Clair: Portland: 4 Saves, Cincinnati: 0 Saves, Toronto: 3 Saves, Orlando: 5 saves, New England: 6 saves, RSL: 4 saves. I think you get my point, but St. Clair has earned 3 or more saves in 5 of the last 6 matches. Again, if you want to create a 2-leg parlay to improve your chances, you could do St. Clair 2+ Saves (-320) and Inter Miami Moneyline (-235) for a -150 payout. Maybe not the best price, but with the disparity between these two clubs, you take what you can.

Final Thought

I'm not trying to be negative, but a win in Miami seems like an impossible task for the Boys in Blue. However, stranger things have happened in MLS, and maybe this is the perfect trap game for Messi and company. Win, lose, or draw, we will be live on AAT Sports Network after the final whistle for our Union post game show. You can watch and comment on Facebook and YouTube. Doop!