Philadelphia Union v Chicago Fire: Match Preview and Betting Notes

Photograph Credit: Philadelphia Union

Once again, the Boys in Blue will be juggling a congested schedule with their 3rd game in 7 days. Let's review a frustrating week and preview the first 2026 matchup against the Chicago Fire.

Can It Get Any Worse?

It can always get worse, but right now the vibes are incredibly low for the Philadelphia Union. There was some hope that we would walk into Atlanta and find our offensive footing against a team that had given up 2 or more goals in each of their 3 games. Instead, we were unable to generate a goal until the final minutes of the match when Anello scored the first open play goal of the MLS season. Additionally, our defense had their worst performance of the year when Almiron and company netted 3 goals by the 70th minute.

Despite the 0-0-4 start for the Union, fans tried to rally for the CONCACAF Champions Cup game on Wednesday evening. The Union were only down 0-1 on aggregate goals, and Club America has looked beatable this season. Unfortunately, the Boys in Blue fell flat...again. A questionable starting lineup from Bradley Carnell gave up a goal in the 6th minute, and the Union were lucky not to be down by 2 or more goals by the half time whistle.

However, there were some positives to take away from Wednesday's 1-1 result in Mexico City. Jesus Bueno had himself a rememberable performance, including a clutch penalty kick goal to level the match. Next, Frankie Westfield and Cavan Sullivan continued to shine when called upon. Sullivan was incredibly close to earning two assists, but the chances he gave Stas and Nate couldn't find the back of the net. For Francis, he was again the Union's best player. The Philly native brought energy and quality to the club when he was put in at left back in the second half. We know Westfield isn't a left-footed player, but neither is Ndinga. Considering how comfortable Frankie looks on the left, I'm curious if Carnell will let Westfield take the left back spot and slot Ndinga on the right.

As I've said on our Union post game show, the CONCACAF Champions Cup is an important tournament that all teams should take seriously. However, getting knocked out of this competition should be a blessing in disguise for Philly. The schedule congestion, rotating lineups, and injuries have contributed to the Union's poor start. I imagine that a normal training and travel schedule will be a relief for Carnell and his group.

Chicago Fire Preview

The Chicago Fire have also gotten off to a slow start, as they are currently 1W-1D-2L and just lost to DC United in Chicago. However, don't let that record fool you. This team will still be a dangerous opponent when Philly welcomes them to Chester.

Berhalter's squad started their season with a 2-1 loss against the Houston Dynamo, but it should be mentioned that Jack Elliott, Jonathan Bamba, Andrew Gutman, and Jonathan Dean were all absent from this contest.

Next, after shutting out Montreal 3-0, the Fire earned a 0-0 draw against Columbus without Dean (red card suspension), Gutman (lower body injury), and Cuypers (lower body injury).

After two consecutive shutouts, the Fire were minutes away from earning their third clean sheet last Saturday. Cuypers and Dean returned to the rotation, and they took a 1-0 lead into the final ten minutes of the match. Unfortunately for Chicago, an awkward deflection beat Brady for DC's first goal, and a questionable handball in the Fire box gave Baribo the chance to make it 2-1. From watching the match, Chicago had the more dangerous chances, especially during the first half. However, they failed to score early and were struck with some bad luck in the dying minutes.

Similar to Carnell, Berhalter has juggled a rotating staff, injuries, and a suspension. Also, the Fire front office has bolstered this squad with several key additions. Specifically, the Fire added Mbekezeli Mbokazi, Anton Saletros, Robin Lod, and Puso Dithejane. Dithejane and Mbokazi are South African players who will reinforce Chicago's attack and defense, respectively. Mbokazi in particular is an impressive player who will be representing his country in the 2026 World Cup.

Robin Lod is someone MLS fans should be familiar with. He spent several years with Minnesota United and will bring experience and quality to Gregg's midfield. Lastly, Anton Saletros will be a key part of the Fire attack and adds a dangerous facilitator in the midfield and on set pieces.

As I've said a few times this season, the Fire could easily contend for a top spot in the Eastern Conference. We'll see if Gregg can live up to expectations when his squad is fully available.

Player Availability and Betting Notes

First, neither club will be missing players for suspension, nor is anyone on yellow card accumulation. However, we have a significant absence for Chicago. Jack Elliott posted on his Instagram story on Thursday night and shared that he's been battling sepsis. I've shared his story below, and we are all wishing Jack a speedy recovery. Unfortunately, that means Union fans won't be seeing one of their former players this weekend.

For Philly, Agustin Anello (Grade 2 hamstring) joins Eddy Davis (quad) and Quinn Sullivan (knee) on the injury report. He will be out for Saturday's match. Also, Coach Carnell discussed the unusual absence of Alladoh from the lineup on Wednesday. Bradley stated that Ezekiel is dealing with personal matters and they hope to "welcome him back to the group soon". I won't speculate on what that could mean, but Philly may be without their new signing for some time.

For Chicago, Gutman is no longer on the injury report and will be a dangerous addition to Berhalter's squad. Andre Franco (lower body), Jack Elliott (not due to injury), Chris Mueller (not due to injury), and Sam Rogers (lower body) are all out for Saturday's contest.

Before we get into the betting notes, I think it's worth resharing and adding to the Shots on Target stat I shared last week before Atlanta. I added in the Atlanta and Club America numbers below, and as you can see, some key names are still missing. Damiani has been unable to get a shot on target in these six competitions, while Iloski hasn't hit the target since DC. Don't even get me started on how poor his set pieces have been too.

Additionally, we should highlight that Alladoh is absent from this list too. The Union's expensive offseason addition didn't see time on Wednesday evening, nor was he on the bench. Considering what Bradley mentoned in his presser, we may not see Alladoh making an impact any time soon.

Union v Club America - Second Leg: 7 shot attempts, 2 shots on goal (1 Korzeniowski, 1 Bueno)

Union v Atlanta United: 14 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (1 Ndinga, 1 Westfield, 1 Anello)

Union v Club America - First Leg: 12 shot attempts, 1 shot on goal (1 Westfield).

Union v San Jose: 13 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (2 Vassilev, 1 Harriel).

Union v NYC: 16 shot attempts, 5 shots on goal (2 Harriel, 1 Vassilev, 1 Korzeniowski, 1 Anello)

Union at DC United: 12 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (2 Iloski, 1 Anello)

Ok, let's get into a few bets. Again, I use Draftkings Sportsbook for my plays, but shop around if you want different lines or props.

So far, we've had some success from our plays across three MLS matches, especially last week against Atlanta. I did not have any plays prior to the DC match, and most of our success has come from fading the Philadelphia Union. Some of the plays that have hit are Hannes Wolf 1+ Shot on Target, Timo Werner Score or Assist, Atlanta United Tie No Bet, and Miranchuk 1+ Shot on Target & over 1.5 total goals parlay.

I'm not ready to back the Union, especially without having a guaranteed starting lineup after a mid-week game in Mexico. So, here are some numbers to focus on, but expect my plays to back the opposition again.

First, the moneyline numbers jumped out to me right away. The Union are home favorites at +120, the draw is +215, and the Chicago ML is +220. I'm surprised about the Chicago number in particular. Last year, Berhalter's squad was very efficient on the road and earned 9 wins away from Chicago. Also, they've earned two clean sheets already this season, and their additions have clearly improved their defense. I expected the Fire number to be closer to Philly, but I'm going to do what I did against Atlanta for this play. Chicago Fire Tie No Bet: +135 makes the most sense to me. The Union showed some signs of progress in the second half on Wednesday, and maybe that carries over to Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see a home draw for Philly, so I'm ok with settling for a Tie No Bet play for the Fire. In case you're wondering, Philly Tie No Bet is -170, which is too expensive for my liking.

Next, one Chicago player that stood out to me against DC United was Robin Lod. His passing generated 3 chances, and he almost had a hockey assist early in the game when Zinckernagel's cross into the box was whiffed by Bamba. The Union have been beat multiple times down their left side, which is where Miranchuk, Bouda, and Wolf earned their goals. I am leaning toward placing bets on Zinckernagel 1+ Assist +320 and/or Lod 1+ Assist +500. In the betting world, you go with what's working until it doesn't. Right now, the opposing playmakers are having a field day against the Union backline. Just ask Almiron after his 3 assist performance. It would be foolish to think that Lod, Zinckernagel, or even Bamba (+550) don't facilitate a goal.

Ok, now I'm placing a bet on something I've never done before. On Draftkings, there is an option for First/Last Goal under Match Props. Right now, the Union have conceded first in each MLS match, and in both of their Club America matches. So, Chicago Fire to score first is +115, while the Union is -130. I'd love to be proven wrong here, but I'm not ready to back Carnell's crew until they've shown they can do it. Give me Fire First Goal at +115.

Lastly, let's look at the Anytime Goal Scorers like we always do. Cuypers is +170, Damiani is +200, Iloski is +210, Korzeniowski is +220, Zinckernagel is +285, and Vassilev is +320. I'm not eager to back any Union player, but Bruno showed some life in the second half against Club America. I expect him to start on Saturday, and although I don't recommend backing him this weekend, I am hopeful he finally nets one. If you're looking for some long shots, Harriel keeps getting chances to score, and his number is +2000. If anything, maybe take his 1+ Shot on Target (+425) if you're really feeling lucky. Westfield is also at +2000, and I expect Frankie to positively impact the match again. For reference, his 1+ Assist is +500 (more expensive than what we saw against Atlanta: +800). Like I said weeks ago, once Frankie gets going, the books will adjust.

Final Thought

There is a very real possibility that the Union could fall to 0-0-5 to start their MLS campaign. Chicago is getting healthy and have dangerous pieces across their lineup. Also, I'm sure last year's ugly playoff exit against Philly will be giving them some extra motivation. Carnell needs to figure out his best eleven players and find a way to score early against Chicago. If they do that, then maybe we'll finally see a win.

After the match, we'll be going live on AAT Sports Network for our Union post game show. Hop in the comments and join us as we discuss the afternoon match. Doop!