Philadelphia Union v Chicago Fire: Match Preview and Betting Notes

Photo Credit: Philadelphia Union Social Media

The Union dodged a bullet during their Game 1 victory over Chicago. Even though Philly coughed up a 2 goal lead, they did enough to secure a 1-0 lead in this Best of Three series. Next, the Boys in Blue will look to knock the Fire out of the playoffs at SeatGeek Stadium in Bridgeview.

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I released a Game 1 Preview before last weekend's match, and not much has changed between these two teams since that article. If you want a more in-depth discussion of these two rosters and their season stats, I've included my Game 1 preview here. Instead, let's dive into some key talking points before tonight's kickoff.

We'll discuss injuries first. For the Union, Jeremy Rafanello has been nursing a hamstring injury, and he was left off the Game 1 roster. Bradley Carnell spoke with the media on Thursday afternoon and mentioned that Rafanello is looking good. As of now, it appears that Jeremy is all healed up, but we'll see if he finds a place on the bench. We know that Cavan Sullivan will only be here one more game before he goes to the U-17 U.S. Squad. Also, Ben Bender found a place on the bench last weekend. If Carnell does elect to add Rafanello to the bench, I imagine he will do so for Ben Bender. Once Cavan is gone, I expect Ben and Jeremy to be options.

Next, Mikael Uhre apparently entered Game 1 with an injury, but he made an immediate impact during his time off the bench. On Thursday, Coach Carnell mentioned that Uhre had a knee injury last week, but he should be good to go for this Saturday's match. It's unfortunate to say, but Tai Baribo has gone cold in the scoring department, and we never know what to expect from Bruno Damiani. Mikael Uhre plays a huge role for this club, and although I would like to see him start, I believe he's best suited as a sub. Uhre is fast and can stretch the defense, and we saw how he was able to take advantage of the tired Chicago back line when he was brought on.

For Chicago, all eyes will be on Philip Zinckernagel. The Danish playmaker was a late scratch on Sunday evening, and appearently he suffered an abdominal strain during warm-ups. As of now, it appears that Philip is day-to-day, and I imagine he will be a game-time decision in Chicago. On Thursday, Coach Berhalter said that Zinckernagel was able to warm up at training, but he couldn't continue beyond that. Philip is not listed on the MLS Injury report, so as of now, it seems we will be finding out Saturday afternoon.

If absent again, this is a huge loss for the Fire. In 33 matches, Zinckernagel has 15 goals and 15 assists, and he would be my vote for the 2025 MLS Newcomer of the Year award.. The Fire have a dominant offensive attack, and 30 goal contributions from a first-year player in MLS should not be ignored. As a Union fan, I don't mind the Fire's best player being absent. As a soccer fan, we want to see the best players on the field, and I am crossing my fingers that Zinckernagel will be cleared to play.

Another injury note for Chicago is goalkeeper Chris Brady. He popped up on the injury report on Friday with a lower body injury, and he's currently questionable entering Saturday's fixture. It's unclear if Brady picked up a knock last weekend, or during training, so we'll see how Berhalter approaches his keeper position.

Lastly, let's discuss yellow cards. Jakob Glesnes, Kai Wagner, and Jovan Lukic earned yellow cards on Sunday. For the home side, Jack Elliott, Joel Waterman, and Brian Gutierrez also received a yellow card booking. We will keep an eye on each of these players as there is still yellow card accumulation in the playoffs, although none are currently at risk for a game suspension. Chicago also received a red card on Sunday when Oregel shoved Kai Wagner during his scuffle with Gutierrez. Oregel will be suspended for Saturday's match after earning a straight red.

Game 1 Review

The Union began this game with their expected starting XI, but some of us were surprised that Frankie Westfield was on the bench. Nathan Harriel is of course a reliable right back, and his speed, verticality, and versatility has made him a valuable piece on the back line. Also, with the Fire's speed and quality on set pieces, I can see why Carnell went with Harriel over Westfield.

Defensively, the Fire did well to keep the Union away from Brady. They continuously defended with a crowded box and five men on the back line, which made the center of the field very congested for the Union when they tried to attack. Throughout the first 60 minutes of the match, we saw several long distance shots, intercepted passes into the box, and crosses that were easily cleared by Chicago. As I watched the game, I was hoping to see Harriel (and the Union) be more aggressive down the right side of the pitch, as the Fire was giving them some space to operate. Kudos to Carnell for bringing in Frankie Westfield and Mikael Uhre with 30 minutes to play, as both players made immediate impacts.

Mikael Uhre immediately forced Waterman into a difficult defensive position as he ran across midfield, and Waterman's tackle on Mikael earned the center back a yellow. Off this foul, Westfield sent one of the more dangerous crosses of the match into the box, and it almost connected with a surging Tai Baribo. Uhre would soon create pressure which gave Tai an opportunity to send Mikael a ball in the box, but Uhre's touch wasn't good enough to test Brady.

Not long after, Philly forced a turnover, and Milan Iloski found Uhre down the right-hand side of the field. Mikael not only created space for a cross, but he found an unmarked Indy Vassilev on the opposite end of the box. Throughout the first hour of the match, it didn't feel like the Union were moving quick enough in the attack, nor were they catching the Fire before they settled into their defensive position. Sure enough, this counter and quick ball movement earned Philly a 1-0 lead.

For Westfield, he and Danley created pressure in the turnover that led to the Union's second goal. Lukic and Baribo fed the ball to Milan, and the California native did the rest with a perfect strike with his left foot. Again, the Union moved quicker and caught the Fire out of position.

Chicago's approach to this match wasn't the prettiest, but they were able to frustrate the Union and keep this match at 0-0 for a majority of the game. Also, with the first round of the playoffs going to penalty kicks after 90 minutes, it seemed like they were just trying to weather the storm and force a shootout. On Saturday, I expect a different approach, especially if Zinckernagel is back. This offense has proven to be lethal throughout the year, and I'd expect for the Fire to try and push more in the attack when given the opportunity. For the Union, this may give Philly more space to operate in the final third. Also, after seeing Frankie's involvement on Sunday, I hope to see him in the starting lineup. He is a more aggressive player from an offensive standpoint, and I trust his crosses over Harriel's right now. If Chicago hunkers down in the box again, then I believe Frankie may push the envelope, where Nathan did not.

The Union had 57% possession and took 18 total shots, but only 2 of those were on target. If the Union are caught in a high scoring affair, then they need to be quicker in breaking down the Fire's defense. Also, I am looking to see some improvements on defending the set piece. Both of the Fire goals came out of a set piece attempt, and the Union must be more aware of their defensive responsbilities.

Betting Notes

We travel to Chicago for Game 2, and that may benefit Philly in tonight's matchup. The Fire have a 6W-6D-5L record at home, along with a 0 goal differential. Next, it's unclear what we're going to see from Chicago. Is Zinckernagel going to play or start? Will Chris Brady be in net? Will the Fire have the same defensive approach as they did in Chester? It's unclear, which makes predicting tonight's matchup a bit more difficult.

I don't believe the Fire will be as conservative in Game 2, at least not for the entire match. Also, after missing two PKs in Chester, I'm not sure if Berhalter wants to put his team in another shootout situation. For Philly, despite giving up 2 goals in Game 1, these each came off set pieces. The Union have done well defensively against the Fire this year, and I expect them to have a similar result this time around.

On Draftkings, the Fire regular time Moneyline is +110, the draw is +250, and the Union ML is +215. However, the "to advance" predicts a different result. The Fire to advance is +300, and the Union to advance is a whopping -500! If Chicago can't finish off Philly in regular time, then the books are expecting Philly to handle their business in PKs and move on.

Both Teams to Score is -190, and Total Match Goals over 2.5 is -160. I'm surprised the match total isn't more expensive considering the last two contests each had 4 goals, but there is some rain in the forecast today. A sloppy game could lead to a lower scoring affair, so keep an eye on the weather if you're looking at goal totals.

Next, I think it's worth looking at who the Union start tonight. Mikael Uhre was efficient against the Chicago back line, and Westfield's ability in the final third was more promising than Nathan's If Frankie starts, I would consider placing a bet on his assist toal. 1+ Assist for Westfield is +750, and with our talented forwards crashing into the box, that's a pretty great price for a player who is going to attack. If Zinckernagel starts, I would consider an assist bet for him too, which is 1+ Assist at +270. He is the key playmaker for the Fire, and if they score against Blake, I would expect him to have a role in it.

As I mentioned in my previous Match Preview, the Union have been racking up the corner kicks, and the number is cheaper than I expected for Philly. Their Total Corners over 4.5 is only -140, and if Frankie starts, i like that bet even more. If you want a nice payout on a parlay, then Union over 4.5 corners and Westfield 1+ assist is +1300 on Draftkings.

Next, let's look at Anytime Goal Scorers: Cuypers is +125, Baribo is +180, Zinckernagel is +205, Damiani is +250, Uhre is +250, Iloski is +330, and Bamba is +400. In my last preview, I took a chance on Tai Baribo, but the Israeli national couldn't get a goal. I hate to go back to a player that has been on such a cold streak, but if the Fire are more aggresive in the attack, then Baribo will have more chances to score when the Union are countering (as will Bruno). I believe he's worth a shot for that reason alone. Again, if you're looking to back Zinckernagel, consider placing a bet on Goal and/or Assist if your sportsbook has that option. You may get closer to even money on your return, but it's a reasonable bet to make.

Lastly, I'm going back to a bet I've made in previous matches. The Union took several shots from outside the box on Saturday, and I know Milan is quick to pull the trigger from the edge of the box. This has hit for us in the past, so let's run it back again. Iloski 1+ Shot on Target from Outside the Box is -110. Considering how much space Chicago was giving Philly from outside the box, I believe Milan will take advantage of it if he gets an opening.

Final Thought

Rest and recovery is important throughout the playoffs, so I'm looking for the Union to take care of business tonight. The Second Round doesn't start until November 22nd, so the Union could get nearly 3 weeks off before the Conference Semi-Finals. That will be great for players who have lingering injuries, although that long of a break worries me too. How rusty will the Union be if they haven't played a match in 3 weeks?

Tonight, we will be doing a Pre-Game and Post-Game Show on AAT Sports Network. You can follow and comment on Facebook or YouTube, and we'll be live at 5pm, and then 15 minutes after the final whistle. Doop!