Philadelphia Union v Chicago Fire: Match Preview and Betting Notes

Photo Credit: Philadelphia Union Social Media

The Chicago Fire took down Orlando City on Wednesday night and earned a trip to Chester for the Best of Three round of the MLS Playoffs. Let’s discuss the third matchup between these two sides.

A Loss in Charlotte

Last weekend was Decision Day in MLS. Although multiple teams were fighting for their playoff spot, the Union had the luxury of knowing their fate the week before. Regardless, there was a desire to end the season on a strong note, while also maintaining a healthy roster for the upcoming playoffs.

Frankly, the Union didn’t look too inspiring when they travelled to Charlotte last Saturday. 2 first half goals from Charlotte FC put the Union in a hole before the half time whistle. In the second half, we saw a bit more life from the Boys in Blue, especially with Indy Vassilev brought onto the pitch. Unfortunately, the Union couldn’t capitalize on 23 shot attempts, and they left North Carolina with a 2-0 defeat. A win for the home side secured their 4th place position in the Eastern Conference, but the victory came with a price. Wilfried Zaha, the talented but hot-headed forward, fouled Jesus Bueno in the dying seconds of the game. Zaha was issued a red card and he will now miss Charlotte’s first match against NYCFC. As I mentioned in my Match Preview before Decision Day, the Charlotte trio of Zaha, Biel, and Toklomati have combined for 31 goals. Biel has already been ruled out for the season with a knee injury, which means Charlotte will be without Zaha and Biel in Game 1 against New York. Charlotte has been excellent at home, but they’ve now allowed NYC an opportunity to steal a win in Game 1. Remember, the winner of that matchup will play the Union if Philly can advance to the Second Round.

Bradley Carnell Pre-Match Press Conference

The Union press conferences have had some issues with their mics, and I noticed that the reporters couldn't be heard clearly during Bradley's pre-match presser. However, here are a few talking points that Coach addressed this week.

Coach started by saying that "everyone has grown", and that they're ready to "fight for something that's greater than each and every individual one of us." As I said in a recent match preview, the Union have accomplished something significant with the Supporters' Shield, but the jobs is far from over.

Considering the three game series of this playoff round, Coach emphasized that the club must do well at home in Game 1 and that they focus on each game individually, rather than all three matches.

Coach was asked about being the top seed in the league, but Carnell stated, "We train like the two seed. We train like we want to still be something, achieve something." Bradley continued by saying how there is a "level of urgency" and "feistiness" while at training.

Rafanello has been nursing a hamstring injury, while Quinn Sullivan is out for the year with a torn ACL. Cavan Sullivan was selected for the U-17 U.S. World Cup squad, but reports have come out that Cavan will remain with the Union for the first two playoff games before heading to the U.S. team. Bradley mentioned that, "Cavan knew that we're a little bit thin right now. He came up to us and it was a good group discussion with Ernst, myself, and Cavan. He threw the idea in there, and knowing that Rafa was out a certain time, and knowing that we're a pretty thin group right now, and we decided, with good cooperation with U.S. Soccer, that he would stay for these two games."

Sullivan has had a limited role this season, but he's shown promising moments in various matches throughout the year. It's not often that a player will delay his international duty, but credit to Cavan for being selfless and putting the Union's playoff hopes as a priority. Without Sullivan, the Union are left with Bedoya, Bueno, and Bender as midfield depth. I don't expect Cavan to get extended time in either of these two games, and I do believe Carnell has shown us a glimpse of what he might do. Danley has proven to be a formidable player in the attack, so I could see a scenario where Danley moves into the 10, Indy is subbed out, and Bueno slots in at the defensive mid next to Lukic.

Regarding the Fire, Coach mentioned that Chicago has made adjustments to their formation throughout the season and "matched up to their opponents". However, he focused more on the quality of the players, and emphasized a similar point he made throughout the season. Each team has DPs and dangerous players, and the Union must be prepared for what Chicago throws at them.

If you would like to watch the entire press conference, I've included it here.

Chicago Fire Preview

First, let's go to the Injury Report. Chicago has 4 players listed as "out" for Sunday afternoon: Leonardo Barroso (lower body), Andre Franco (lower body), Chris Mueller (not due to injury), and Viktor Radojevic (lower body). Although Rafanello may not be 100%, he is not listed on the injury report for this weekend. Only Quinn Sullivan is listed before the playoffs, which is great news for Philly that they're healthy entering the final stretch of the season.

I wanted to play Orlando in this Best of Three series. Prior to Orlando’s defeat on Wednesday, they had only won 1 match in their last 10 contests, including a 2-game losing streak to end the season. On the other hand, Chicago came into the playoffs with some momentum. They had a 3W-2D-0L record in their last 5 games, which included an emphatic 5-3 win against Miami that helped the Union secure their Supporters’ Shield victory against New York. Now, the Union will face a dangerous team for at least two matches. Furthermore, they will face a talented side that fully believes they can make a run to the MLS Cup Final.

Chicago scores and does it well. The Fire are second in MLS with 71 goals scored, and they haven’t scored less than 2 goals since their 3-1 defeat to New York on September 13th. Similar to Charlotte, their scoring comes from a three-headed attack. Hugo Cuypers (19), Philip Zinckernagel (15), and Brian Gutierrez (10) have combined for 44 (61.9%) of the Fire goals this season, with only 5 of those 44 coming from the penalty spot. In the attack, their goals have been facilitated well by Zinckernagel, who has 13 assists on the season. Andrew Gutman and Maren Haile-Selassie each have 8 and 6 assists, respectively.

We know the Union have been great on set piece opportunities this season, but the Fire aren’t too far behind them in terms of production. Philly has 17 set piece goals, while Chiago has 15. Chicago clearly has the advantage offensively, but the Union are noticeably better in protecting their net. Philadelphia has conceded 35 goals this season, while Chicago has nearly doubled that number at 61 goals allowed. Furthermore, the Union know how to keep their opponents out of the goal, and they lead MLS with 14 clean sheets, two of which have come against Chicago. On the other hand, Chicago is 23rd in clean sheets with six.

Naturally, you would think that the away side has the disadvantage with being on the road, but that is not the case for Chicago. The Fire have more victories away from their home arena and hold a 9W-2D-6L record as the visitor. However, the Union have turned Subaru Park into a fortress again. Philly holds a 12W-4D-1L record in Chester, with a +21 goal differential. For context, the Union are 8W-2D-7L on the road, so not only does the Supporters’ Shield give Philly a trophy, but it secures home-field advantage throughout the entire playoffs.

This matchup is very much an “unstoppable force meets an immovable object” scenario. Both teams have excelled on one side of the ball, but despite Chicago’s scoring ability, the Union have done well against them this year. On June 25th, a makeshift lineup, along with a Damiani penalty kick in the 10th minute, earned Philly a 1-0 victory. On August 23rd, the Fire were sent packing from Subaru Park with a 4-0 throttling. We had goals from Baribo, Wagner, Jean-Jacques, and Iloski that evening, with Milan being the star of that match.

Betting Notes

The first thing to note is the rules for this Best of Three series. If there is a draw after 90 minutes, the match will go straight to penalty kicks. Extra time won’t be applicable until after this initial round. With that said, the Union regular time Moneyline is -125, the draw is +285, and the Fire ML is +270. If you are looking to see who wins the match after PKs, then keep an eye out for that specific bet on your preferred sportsbook. On Draftkings, the Union to "advance" are -210, while Chicago is +160.

No surprise, but the Total Match goals over/2.5 is -185, and Both Teams to Score is -190. Despite the Union shutting out Chicago in two consecutive matches, I would be surprised to see Berhalter’s side get shut out again. Like I said earlier, the Fire have been in good form of late, and they’re coming into Philly with confidence. I do believe they finally get past the Union defense for at least one goal, but I do hope I’m wrong!

Considering those pricey numbers, I looked at Team Total Goals, but it didn’t get any cheaper. Philly over 1.5 total team goals is -180, although the same bet for Chicago is +125. If you’re expecting a 3-2 type contest, then you’re getting a decent price for one of the best scoring teams in the league.

Philadelphia ended the season with 210 corner kicks, compared to Chicago that only earned 155. Also, in the last two matches against Chicago, the Union had 4 corners on the road, and 6 corners in Chester. The Team Total Corners over 5.5 for the Union is -150, which isn’t the cheapest but something I may play. In their last two matches, the Union earned 10 corners against NYCFC, and 12 corners against Charlotte. Even with Quinn out of the lineup, this offense is still dangerous and finds ways to earn these opportunities.

While we’re discussing corner kicks, Kai Wagner 1+ Assist is +300. If you pair that with the Union over 5.5 corners, you get a nice +575 parlay. Three other players to watch on Sunday are Indy Vassilev, Milan Iloski, and Philip Zinckernagel. Indy has improved as the season’s gone on, and if Philly wants to advance without Sullivan, then Vassilev needs to be a difference maker. 1+ assist for Indy is +390, while Zinckernagel 1+ assist is +350.

Lastly, we of course need to throw in the Goal Scorers: Baribo is +110, Cuypers is +185, Damiani is +180, Uhre is +180, Iloski is +250, Zinckernagel is +270, and Gutierrez is +450. If you’re looking to place a bet on a Fire player, then you have a good chance by selecting either Zinckernagel or Cuypers. For Philly, you never really know who is going to step up each week, but I like my chances with Baribo. He hasn’t scored since the Union’s last meeting with Chicago, so to say he’s overdue is an understatement. Getting Baribo hot to start the playoffs would be huge for our Boys in Blue, and I expect to see heavy distribution to Baribo in the box.

Final Thought

This has been a great season, and the Supporters’ Shield is a huge accomplishment for this club. However, we all know what the real prize is in MLS. We have the talent, coaching, and passion. Now it’s time to put it all together and make a run at MLS Cup!

After Sunday’s match, we will be going live on AAT Sports Network for our post-game show. You can watch and comment on Facebook and YouTube, and we’ll be live about 15 minutes after the final whistle. Doop!