Union v Toronto FC - Match Preview and Betting Notes

The Union return to MLS action on Saturday night, so let's dive into what's been going on with the club over these last two weeks.

Friendly with Frankfurt

I’m not big on friendlies, or any form of exhibition match for that matter. The seasons are long, and besides training, I would rather have the players resting and avoiding injury. However, the two friendlies this year (Atlas and Eintracht Frankfurt) have been very enjoyable. I was present for the Union’s win against Atlas, but I stayed home and caught the YouTube stream for last weekend's game. Quick shoutout to Dave Leno and Sebastian LeToux for their coverage. Union fans are very fortunate to have those two calling matches each week, and Todd Lewis of The Free Kick spoke with Dave Leno on his latest episode. If you'd like to check out the conversation between Todd, Dave, and Jose Nunez, I've provided the YouTube link here.

Now, back to the friendly. It was an entertaining match from start to finish, and it was nice to see Paxten Aaronson running around Subaru Park again. Although the Blue and Gold gave up two goals, Bruno Damiani scored off a Kai Wagner corner kick, and Chris Donovan tied the match with a score in the 2nd half. We also saw heavy rotation throughout the match, which included an appearance by Neil Pierre, Isaiah LeFlore, Oliver Semmle, and Eddy Davis. I know that this match doesn’t count, but the Union held their own against a good Bundesliga team. Also, considering the two week break between MLS matches, the Union should benefit from a mid-break friendly to keep the legs fresh.

Milan Iloski Signing

Union fans have anxiously waited for Tanner to make a move in the Summer window. There was some uncertainty about whether he would sell or buy, especially after last year’s moves that left some people questioning ownership’s priorities. For now, Ernst Tanner looks to be all-in for this year’s title-contending squad. The Philadelphia Union acquired Milan Iloski from FC Nordsjælland. If the name sounds familiar, that’s because

Milan spent the last few months racking up goals with San Diego FC. Iloski and San Diego just mutually terminated his loan, and although Milan was preparing to rejoin his Danish Superliga side, the Union made sure Milan could stay in the US. If you want to read more about Iloski, you can check out my article from last week here. I’m also including a highlight reel from his multi-score game against Vancouver here. I can’t say for

sure that Tanner is done making moves, but I’m hoping Carnell will have all four options (Bruno, Tai, Mikael, and Milan) at his disposable for the rest of the season.

Bradley Carnell Pre-Match Press Conference

Coach Carnell spoke with the media on Thursday afternoon, and he spent a few moments discussing Iloski. Specifically, he highlighted Milan's versatility and ability to play the 10 and the 9. Over the last few weeks, and especially during Quinn's absence, we have discussed the Union's lack of creativity without Quinn. Personally, I believe Tanner's vision is to pair Milan and Sullivan together, or at least use Iloski as a 4th striker option. Either way, Milan is MLS-ready, in good condition, and will be available for selection on Saturday night. I don't want to jump to conclusions by saying this, but the addition of Iloski could be the final piece to truly make this a title contending squad.

Lastly, Carnell discussed Toronto and how it may be challenging to break them down defensively. Despite their recent form, Bradley spoke highly of the Canadian side and mentioned that they are trending in the right direction. Regardless, the Union have seen compact defenses throughout the season, and Coach is confident that his team will find ways to score. If you'd like to listen to the full press conference, I've included it here.

A Look at Leagues Cup

I haven’t watched a ton of Leagues Cup, but considering the Union’s quarterfinal match with New York on August 13th, I’ve kept an eye on the North Jersey squad. The Red Bulls have played three matches at the time of this article, and then an MLS match on Sunday, August 10th against Real Salt Lake. So far, they have had a 1-0 win over Guadalajara, a 1-1 penalty kick loss to Monterrey, and a 1-1 penalty kick win against Juarez. It’s great that New York has played some extra minutes thus far in the tournament, and we’ll be crossing our fingers that RSL can make it a difficult 90 minutes for the Red Bulls when they return to MLS play. After that game, New York will only have about 72 hours to recover and prepare for a tough road match in Chester.

Toronto Preview

This will be the second matchup between Philly and the Canadian visitors. We first played Toronto at BMO Field on May 28th. The Union have struggled to earn wins in Toronto, but the Blue and Gold squeaked away with a 2-1 victory. Goals were scored by Nathan Harriel in the 87th minute and Kai Wagner in the 92nd minute. Let’s take a quick look at the numbers too from that contest. Philly had 58% possession, a 1.36 xG, and 14 total shots (6 on target). Nathan Harriel started at center back with Jakob back in May, but I fully expect to see

Makhanya slotted next to Glesnes on Saturday night. Frankie Westfield was the right back in that match, and I wouldn’t be opposed to seeing him there again this weekend. Next, I am hopeful that Milan Iloski gets to see some time. I don’t expect Milan to start, but a 75th minute sub would be fine. Let’s give him a chance to shake off any rust and become acclimated with his teammates.

Once again, the Union will be hosting a Canadian side that is sitting at the bottom half of the Eastern Conference standings. Toronto is in 12th place with 21 points and a -7 goal differential. On the road, they hold a 3W-2D-6L record, with 11 points and a -3 GD. This year, the visitors have 25 total goals, with 3 from own goals, and 2 from the penalty spot. This will be Toronto’s 4th consecutive road match before they host Columbus next Saturday. During this lengthy road trip, Toronto lost 2-0 to Charlotte and 1-0 in Nashville. However, they also beat San Diego 1-0 in California. The most important thing for me is the lack of offense for the visitors as they arrive in Chester. Toronto has only scored 1 goal over the last three games, which was a 20th minute penalty kick by Corbeanu against San Diego. The Union have been very stingy on defense this season, and they’ll be hosting a club that hasn’t scored away from the penalty spot since July 12th against Atlanta (a 1-1 draw for TFC).

Toronto will be seeing the Union for the second time, and so will their latest addition, Djordje Mihailovic. Earlier this week, Tom Bogert announced that Colorado was sending Mihailovic to Toronto. On Thursday, Tom released the details of the signing, which totals 8 million dollars and 1 million in add-ons. As of now, it's unclear whether Mihailovic will suit up for Toronto this Saturday, but the Union should be prepared to contain a player who has 9 goals and 5 assists on the season.

Finally, let’s look at the Head-to-Head between these two teams. The Union have a 2W-1D-2L record against Toronto over the last five matches, with both losses on the road. In Chester, the Union earned a 0-0 result in 2024, and a 4-2 win in 2023. As Coach Carnell hinted at in the press conference, this should be a competitve opponent who will be defensively compact in the final third. Also, with the quarterfinal match just days away, the Union must do everything in their power to avoid looking ahead of Toronto. Bradley has made it clear that TFC is a better squad than their record suggests, and taking them lightly could result in a tough loss before a significant Open Cup battle.

Betting Notes

The Union are entering this match as understandably heavy favorites (again, I use DraftKings for my numbers). The Philly Moneyline (regular time) is at -230, with +350 on the draw, and a whopping +500 for Toronto’s ML. Considering Toronto’s scoring form, the “No” for Both Teams to Score is intriguing. No is a +100 play (even money), while Yes is - 130. I would have worried about Philly being a bit rusty considering this two-week MLS break, but I do believe the Frankfurt friendly was beneficial in keeping this team match ready.

The Total Match Goals sits at -165 over 2.5, while the Union team goals over 2.5 is +130. Although Toronto hasn’t been scoring much, they’re not exactly giving away too many goals either. I think we all expect this to be a 2 or even 3 score game, but don’t be surprised if Toronto can keep the Union to only 2 goals on Saturday. Personally, I’m eyeing the Union spread (-1.5 at +115). I rarely place a spread bet on soccer matches, but I do see this being a 2-0 or even 3-0 win if Philly can keep their offense going. If you can find a book that lets you buy the hook (removing the 0.5 on the 1.5), then taking a chance on Union -1 seems to be a solid bet (depending on the price).

Right now, the Union are finding multiple ways to score, and all three of the forwards are finding the goal. This can make placing an Anytime Goalscorer bet a bit more difficult to predict, but you certainly have more options to choose from. For the forwards, Tai is at -115, Uhre is +155, and Bruno is +155. I would avoid placing a bet on Iloski for now, as we aren’t entirely sure how Carnell will use him on Saturday, and at what position. However, his Anytime Goalscorer prop is at +125. Vegas is clearly expecting him to make an immediate impact and continue his impressive scoring form.

The Union have been lethal from set pieces this season (16 of their 43 goals), and we saw another one against Frankfurt last week. Nathan Harriel’s goal against Toronto came from a Kai Wagner corner kick, so look to see the center backs leaping over their defenders on Saturday. Makhanya and Glesnes ATG are +1800 and +1100, respectively. Also, Kai Wagner 1+ assist is +255. As I mentioned, corner kicks have been working well for Philly lately, so I took at look at their corner totals over the last few matches. The Union had 11 corners against Colorado, 4 in Houston, 9 against Montreal, and 8 against New York. Needless to say, Philly finds ways to earn corners at home, with a total of 28 in their last three home matches (not including the friendly). That's a massive number if you ask me.

So, I took a look at corner props. The Total Match Corners is -125 over 9.5, and the Total Team Corners for the Union is -105 over 6.5. Considering their recent form at home, I cannot pass up on the total match corners at 9.5 It's possible that the Union clear that number themselves, but you only need for TFC to get a small handful to contribute to that number. I really like that play, especially with Iloski enhancing the offense for at least 20-30 minutes.

Final Thought

The Union’s focus is split between two very important goals. They have a US Open Cup quarterfinal match on Wednesday and a Supporters’ Shield race that is in their control. I hope that this isn’t a trap game for Philly and they avoid looking ahead to Wednesday’s match. However, I do expect Bradley to be smart with the substitutions and have his players ready for the Red Bulls. As of now, everyone seems to be available, although Bender is still listed as questionable on MLS' injury report, and Ian is still out. Philly is fortunate to be hosting these weaker teams at home, and they must continue to put clubs away at Subaru Park. We are on pace for a historic season, and with multiple clubs tied up in Leagues Cup, Philly is in a great position to earn multiple trophies this season.

We’ll be going live on AAT Sports Network after Saturday’s match. Check out and join the comments for our post-game show on Facebook and YouTube. We’ll be live 15 minutes after the final whistle. Doop!