Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal: Match Preview and Betting Notes

Photograph Credit: Philadelphia Union

The Union continue their horrendous start in MLS and carry a six-game losing streak to Montreal. Let's discuss this 2:30pm contest between two Eastern Conference teams that are desperate for a win.

Time for a Change

The Philadelphia Union are off to a poor start, but you could argue that some of it had been out of their control. Philly has a handful of new players, which will take some time to gel. They had also been dealing with injuries and schedule congestion. However, those excuses are now out the window. MLS took an international break after week 5, which gave Carnell’s crew two weeks to get things figured out. Unfortunately, we saw the same issues as before in North Carolina.

The first half against Charlotte felt like Deja vu. The Union gave up the first goal of the match, and they looked lost when trying to attack the opposing net. Alladoh was invisible, while Indy Vassilev had fans begging for Cavan at halftime. The second half was more promising. The Union looked like the better team for the first thirty minutes and were eventually rewarded with a goal from Danley Jean Jacques. However, while we were still celebrating and breathing a sigh of relief, Charlotte woke up and buried their second goal of the game.

Despite the two-week break, this is still the same club we saw for the first five weeks of the season. Some fans want to move on from Carnell, while others are tossing around lineup ideas in hopes of finding the perfect solution. Either way, we are six weeks into the season and there’s no indication that things will improve.

CF Montreal Preview

Besides Atlanta, the Union have played 5 teams that are currently in the playoff picture. Specifically, New York, Charlotte, and Chicago are 2nd, 3rd, and 5th in the East, while San Jose is 3rd in the West. However, this week’s opponent is 13th place Montreal. The Canadian side is 1W-0D-5L on the year, with their only win being a 3-0 victory against the Red Bulls. They’ve also been shut out in 3 of their 5 losses, which included a 5-0 loss at San Diego, a 3-0 loss in Chicago, and a 3-0 defeat against New England last Saturday.

The Union conceded first in each of their MLS matches and twice against Club America. So, I wanted to look at when Montreal was allowing their goals and have listed the times below, focusing on the first half only:

5-0 loss to San Diego: 1st goal allowed in 14th minute; 2nd goal allowed in first half stoppage time.

3-0 loss to Chicago: 1st goal allowed in 27th minute.

2-1 loss to Orlando: 1st goal allowed in 18th minute; 2nd goal allowed in 31st minute.

4-3 loss to Cincinnati: 1st goal allowed in 40th minute.

3-0 loss to New England: 1st goal allowed in 6th minute.

Like Montreal, the Union have repeatedly put themselves in a 1-0 deficit. Furthermore, not only are the Union struggling to score, but they’re struggling to get shots on target, especially in the first half. As I've done since the start of the season, I've added to my Shots on Target list that you'll see below. The Union had 17 shot attempts on Saturday evening, but only 3 found the target, and none were taken by Bruno or Ezekiel.

We said this about Atlanta, and we should be saying this again for Montreal. This is a perfect opportunity for Carnell to get Damiani and Alladoh involved. There is no reason why your top two strikers have yet to earn a shot on target in 6 MLS and 2 CCC matches. That's simply unacceptable. Now, you're playing a team that has let in 7 first half goals in 6 games. It's time for Carnell to show us what he can do with this attack.

Union v Charlotte: 17 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (1 Iloski, 1 Jean Jacques, 1 Bueno)

Union v Chicago Fire: 12 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (1 Vassilev, 1 Iloski, 1 Bueno)

Union v Club America - Second Leg: 7 shot attempts, 2 shots on goal (1 Korzeniowski, 1 Bueno)

Union v Atlanta United: 14 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (1 Ndinga, 1 Westfield, 1 Anello)

Union v Club America - First Leg: 12 shot attempts, 1 shot on goal (1 Westfield).

Union v San Jose: 13 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (2 Vassilev, 1 Harriel).

Union v NYC: 16 shot attempts, 5 shots on goal (2 Harriel, 1 Vassilev, 1 Korzeniowski, 1 Anello)

Union at DC United: 12 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (2 Iloski, 1 Anello)

Next, I do want to discuss two impact players for Montreal (pun intended), as well as their 3-0 defeat in New England. First, Prince Owusu continues to be the home side's most dangerous attacker. The Ghanaian striker had 13 goals and 3 assists last season in MLS, and he's already a third of the way there in 2026 with 4 goals and 1 assist in 6 matches. Next, Ivan Jaime is the key playmaker in the midfield that should give the Union the most trouble. Ivan is on loan from FC Porto, with the loan running until June of 2026. The Spanish midfielder has only played 11 matches for the Canadian side (6 matches in 2025), and he's only earned 1 assist so far in 2026. However, if Montreal is successful in their attack, then I expect Ivan Jaime to be heavily involved in their scoring. We saw a glimpse of this against New England.

Yes, it was a 3-0 defeat, but the end result doesn't tell the full story. Montreal conceded their first goal in the 6th minute, but the score remained 1-0 until the 77th minute. Prior to the second goal, Montreal came inches away from scoring multiple goals. Matt Turner saved an early header from former Union center back Brandan Craig, and Ivan Jaime hit the post after beating Turner with a beautiful right-footed strike in first half stoppage time. The second half saw more of the same from Montreal. Dawid Bugaj had an incredible strike from outside the box in the 58th minute, but it ricocheted off the cross bar and was eventually recovered by Turner. Bugaj would have another chance before New England's second goal, but he found the side netting. Needless to say, Montreal put Turner to work on multiple occasions, and I'm concerned to see those types of chances against our backline.

Player Availability and Betting Notes

For injuries, we have a couple of concerns for the Union. During Carnell's pre-game presser, he mentioned that Jesus Bueno and Danley Jean Jacques were dealing with knee contusions. Danley finds himself as questionable for Saturday afternoon, while Bueno is clear of this week's report. Agustin Anello (hamstring) and Quinn Sullivan (knee) remain out, while Eddy Davis III (hamstring) is also back on the report and out. For the hosts, Bode Hidalgo (lower body), Sunusi Ibrahim (back), and Josh-Duc Nteziryayo (lower body) are out, while Noah Streit (illness) is questionable. Lastly, there are no disciplinary absences or yellow card accumulation warnings for the afternoon fixture.

For some reason, the Philadelphia Union were favorites on DraftKings on Friday morning, but the line moved slightly at the time I published this. As a reminder, Montreal is higher in the standings, has actually won a game, and will be in front of their home crowd at Stade Saputo for their home opener. CF Montreal's moneyline is +150, the draw is +245, and the Union win is +155.

First, I'll say what I've said in the past when it comes to betting. If a system or method is working, then stick with it until it doesn't. I've been fading the Union since the San Jose match and it's been profitable. Last week, we cashed in on Pep Biel Assist and Charlotte First Goal, and my lean of over 2.5 total goals also hit. This week's matchup is a unique one though. Montreal's scoring has been inconsistent, but as I mentioned above, they looked dangerous against New England. Also, over 2.5 total match goals has gone over in all six of Montreal's contests, and the price for Saturday's game against the Union is -140 for over 2.5 total goals. On paper, this seems like an easy play. However, the biggest factor is the Union's inability to score. Montreal has been in high scoring affairs throughout the season, but they've also played teams like San Diego, Chicago, and Cincinnati who have the scoring ability the Union do not. For that reason, I looked at Team Total goals instead.

Over 1.5 Team Goals for Philly and Montreal is +100 and -105, respectively. I'm not overly confident in this play, but I am leaning toward taking Montreal over 1.5 team goals. Philadelphia has given up 2 or more goals in 4 of their 6 MLS matches, so statistically speaking, this play makes sense. I'm not sure if I trust Montreal to score two goals, but I definitely don't trust Philly to keep anyone out of their net either. I'll probably place a small bet on this either way.

Next, I'm curious to see the lineup for Philly. We have consistently seen Carnell start with the 4-2-2-2 formation, but when your club is 0-0-6, it's time to change things up. I don't know if Bradley starts with a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, and I'm not sure if we see players like Sullivan or Bueno inserted into the lineup. If you do see Cavan, I would consider placing a bet on 1+ Shot on Target for the teenage Sullivan at +120. Cavan has been more threatening in the attack than Indy, and we all know he's itching for his first MLS score. Speaking of Shots on Target, I recommend taking a chance on Ivan Jaime 1+ Shot on Target at -145. Ivan has had 1 shot on target in 3 of the last 4 matches, and it would be foolish not to back him against a weak defensive side. While we are speaking about Ivan Jaime, his Score or Assist number is +170. Similar to Pep Biel and Robin Lod, this is a creative and dynamic midfielder who will find ways to exploit the visiting side. You should expect him to be a chance creator against the Boys in Blue.

I am going to revisit the First Goal option under Match Props. The Union have conceded first in each MLS match, while Montreal is giving up first half goals at will. So, who breaks first? I've debated both sides, and maybe Carnell's starting XI or starting formation changes my mind. However, I think I'm going to support Montreal -110 for First Goal (Philly is also -110). Again, the home side will be in front of their supporters for the first time this season. Also, their offense has shown signs of life, where the Union have not. I think we continue to fade Carnell's side until they give us a reason not to.

Finally, let's look at Anytime Goal Scorers. The obvious favorite for Saturday's match is Prince Owusu at +130, and rightfully so. He's gotten off to a good start this season. Next, Damiani is +215, Iloski is +225, and Alladoh is +225. As you'd expect, I wouldn't touch either of those players. Ivan Jaime is +340, Cavan Sullivan is +380, and Wikelman Carmona is +380. Bugaj and Craig are interesting ones at +2500 for each. Bugaj was inches away from scoring against Turner, while Craig's header off a set piece also forced Turner to make a save. I'll be curious to see if those two test the Philly netminder on Saturday.

Final Thought

I will be frustrated if we see the same lineup and formation to start the match on Saturday. I don't believe all of the blame should fall on Carnell for how this season has gone. The front office gutted this roster and their replacements haven't been good enough. However, there is still talent on this Union roster, and it doesn't feel like Carnell has put the right players in the right positions. We'll see if Coach can adjust to turn this year around.

After the show, we'll be going live on AAT Sports Network for another Union post game show. Hop in the comments and join our conversation. Doop!