Philadelphia Union v DC United: Match Preview and Betting Notes

Photograph Credit: Philadelphia Union

Well, it finally happened. The Philadelphia Union earned their first win of the season when they defeated Montreal 2-1 at Stade Saputo. Now, they’ll play DC United on Saturday at 7:30pm and look to make it two wins in a row. Let’s jump into this weekend’s match preview!

Better Late Than Never

The Union have earned their first points of the season and currently sit in 14th place in the Eastern Conference standings, just behind Orlando who has 4 points. Let’s focus on the positives first. Coach Carnell’s job was potentially at risk if Philly had lost again, so a victory last Saturday gives Coach some breathing room… for now. Next, the Union put together a strong second half, had great finishes for both goals, and scored 2 goals within 15 minutes. Sure, this was against Montreal, but you can only play the team that’s on your schedule. The Union needed a win, and they found a way to do just that! Lastly, kudos to Alladoh. He had a nice appearance off the bench and earned an assist.

Ok, now let’s talk about some concerns I had with Saturday’s contest. First, the starting XI frustrated me. We have seen glimpses of Cavan’s creative ability, which was on full display against Charlotte when he contributed to Danley’s goal. Philadelphia has struggled to score and shoot on target, but despite these inefficiencies, Carnell trotted out Indiana Vassilev and… Ben Bender… as his attacking midfielders. Once again, the Union looked terrible in the first half, and they were unable to score against a Montreal side that had allowed 7 first half goals prior to last Saturday. I know that the Union eventually won the match, but if Philly expects to compete each week, then we can’t look dreadful for the first half of each contest. I’m concerned Carnell continues this overreliance on Vassilev (and even Bender) until Quinn comes back. Also, can we stop giving up the first goal of each match? That would be great.

DC United Preview

Our I-95 rivals may have started their MLS campaign with a win against the Union, but it hasn’t gone well since their week 1 victory. DC is currently 2W-1D-4L and in 9th place. Over the last five games, they have lost 2-1 to Miami, beat Chicago 2-1, drew 0-0 to Atlanta, fell to FC Dallas 4-0, and lost to the Revs 1-0. Yes, Chicago is in 2nd place, so that win against the Fire looks promising. However, there is some important context behind DC’s 2-1 victory at Soldier Field. Chicago had a 1-0 lead in the 81st minute, but an awkward deflection led to DC’s first goal, and a questionable hand ball gave DC the PK opportunity in stoppage time. At the end of the day, a road win is a road win, but the context behind DC’s victory makes a difference here. Also, the Chicago match on March 14th is the last time that Coach Weiler’s side has scored a goal in MLS.

Weiler trotted out nearly the same lineups against Atlanta and FC Dallas, but Tai Baribo was a noticeable absence from the 1-0 defeat against the Revs. The former Union striker is currently dealing with a thigh injury and is listed as questionable on the MLS Injury Report for Week 8. The Israeli striker has had a decent 2026 thus far, with three goals in six matches. He scored against the Union in Week 1, put away a deflected shot against Miami, and scored the penalty kick, game-winner in Chicago. What’s unfortunate for DC is that Baribo has been their entire offense. The visiting side has 4 MLS goals on the year, with the only other goal being Matti Peltola’s strike against Chicago. It should be noted that Peltola’s played with DC since 2024 and has not scored until this season.

Finally, DC United's struggles were put on full display this past Wednesday against One Knoxville SC in the U.S. Open Cup. The USL League One side defeated DC 6-5 in a PK shootout after the game ended in a 3-3 draw. Sure, DC had some rotation in their starting lineup, but regulars like Kurokawa, Peglow, and Peltola were in the starting XI. Also, DC had a 1-0 lead in the 62nd minute and a 3-2 lead in the 98th minute. I know USL sides are improving, but there's no reason for DC to lose a match against Knoxville and blow two leads in the process. Needless to say, our I-95 rivals are limping their way into Chester.

Player Availability and Betting Notes

First, there are no players absent for card suspension, nor are there caution accumulation warnings for either side.

For Philly, Quinn Sullivan (knee) and Agustin Anello (hamstring) remain on the injury report, while Danley was back at training and should be good to go for tonight's contest. We also see Sal Olivas on the injury report for the first time this season, and he is listed as out with an ankle injury.

As mentioned, Tai Baribo is questionable for Saturday’s contest at Subaru Park, so we'll need to wait for the afternoon to see if Tai is available. For the rest of DC, Hakim Karamoko (illness), Sean Nealis (shoulder), and Gabe Segal (lower leg) are out, while Louis Munteanu (thigh) is questionable. It should be highlighted that DC United played 120 minutes on Wednesday night. Even if some players aren't injured, I'm sure we have tired legs in Weiler's squad.

I know I'll be contradicting myself in today's betting section. I have been fading the Philadelphia Union since the San Jose match, and as I've said before, go with what's working. However, this week’s match between Philly and DC may be the exception. The Union are a team that have conceded first in each of their MLS matches, while DC hasn’t scored an MLS goal in a month and could potentially be without 75% of their goal scoring production. Also, I’m focusing on momentum. DC United has been in bad form for weeks, while the Union are riding off that first victory high. It may not be a ton of positive momentum for Philly, but it’s more than DC has right now.

DraftKings has the Union as favorites with a -120 price on the moneyline. Draw is +240, and DC United are significant underdogs at +320. I have used the Tie No Bet option for my bets in the past, but the Union are too pricey at -275 for Tie No Bet. As a Union fan, I'm a bit reluctant to make this play, but it makes too much sense not to. The Union are coming off a win and should be fully rested for Saturday's contest. For the visitors, they could be missing their top scorer and are coming off a lengthy match on Wednesday night. There's really no excuse for the Union to lose or draw at home today, so I'm taking Philly moneyline at -120.

For Match Props, I wanted to check in on the First Goal option that has earned me cash over the last two weeks. I'm not surprised that the Union are favored to score first, but the price is a little high for me at -170. Although Philly has been gifting First Goals to opponents all season, DC United's scoring struggles are obvious from their price at +160. +160 is a great price if you think Philly will let in the first goal against a struggling side, but I can't ignore DC's poor form entering this match. I am going to avoid this bet entirely and see how next week looks.

Next, let's look at Shots on Target. We had some progress for Philly in their 2-1 result in Montreal. As I've highlighted below in my Shots on Target list, the Union had 15 total shots, with 6 of those being on target last week. Also, for the first time in the 2026 MLS season, Bruno Damiani had a shot on target. I'm curious to see how Carnell approaches today's Starting XI. Jesus Bueno has played well of late, and there's a legitimate argument for Chu Chu to earn a start today. Also, Ezekiel Alladoh had himself a nice game off the bench, and I wonder if he earns a start as well. Damiani may have had a shot on target, but something isn't clicking yet for the Uruguayan forward. I'm interested to see if Carnell starts Alladoh and puts Bruno on the bench to start the match.

Union v Montreal: 15 shot attempts, 6 shots on goal (2 Bueno, 1 Iloski, 1 Sery, 1 Damiani, 1 Bedoya).

Union v Charlotte: 17 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (1 Iloski, 1 Jean Jacques, 1 Bueno)

Union v Chicago Fire: 12 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (1 Vassilev, 1 Iloski, 1 Bueno)

Union v Club America - Second Leg: 7 shot attempts, 2 shots on goal (1 Korzeniowski, 1 Bueno)

Union v Atlanta United: 14 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (1 Ndinga, 1 Westfield, 1 Anello)

Union v Club America - First Leg: 12 shot attempts, 1 shot on goal (1 Westfield).

Union v San Jose: 13 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (2 Vassilev, 1 Harriel).

Union v NYC: 16 shot attempts, 5 shots on goal (2 Harriel, 1 Vassilev, 1 Korzeniowski, 1 Anello)

Union at DC United: 12 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (2 Iloski, 1 Anello)

Again, we have some uncertainty when it comes to both clubs. I'm not sure if Weiler has some rotation in his lineup after a mid-week game and without Baribo 100% healthy. Also, Carnell still needs to make adjustments for the Union to get going on offense. I think Shots on Target is a bet you wait on until the lineups come out. However, if Baribo does start, 1+ Shot on Target for Tai is -135, which is worth taking if Tai can start.

With uncertainties on offense, I switched to the defensive side of the game for my next bet and focused on Tackles under the Player Defense category on DraftKings. Olwethu Makhanya has been a staple of the back line for the entire season and has played well overall. DK has Makhanya 2+ tackles at -145, so I looked into his last two matches. Mak had 2 tackles against Montreal and 3 against Charlotte. Also, the South African center back had 4 tackles against DC United in the February matchup. So, let's follow the numbers and take a chance on Olwethu. I'll take 2+ tackles for him at -145. If you want to try 3+ tackles, his price is +210.

Lastly, let's list some Anytime Goal Scorers. Damiani is +200, Alladoh is +215, and Iloski is +225. For DC, Baribo is +240, Pirani is intriguing at +340 and Peglow is +475. If you think Bueno can make it two games in a row, the midfielder's number is +700.

Final Thought

This is a perfect opportunity for the Union to earn a second consecutive win. They're welcoming a DC side that is licking their wounds and desperate for answers on offense. We have yet to see a complete game from Carnell's side, but this is the match where I expect to see a strong 90 minutes from Philly. We may not be MLS Cup contenders, but we have the talent to handle our business at home against a struggling side. We'll see if Bradley's squad can get it done in Chester.

After the match, we'll be live for our Union Post Game Show on AAT Sports Network. You can watch on YouTube and Facebook and hop in the comments to join the conversation. Doop!!