Union v Fire: Match Preview and Betting Notes

All Good Things Come to an End

Well, it finally happened. The New York Red Bulls defeated the Philadelphia Union after going winless in 16 consecutive matches dating back to 2019. Although I have been very pro-Carnell up to this point, I (along with many fans) was not happy with the starting XI in Harrison. Specifically, the choice to play Chris Donovan in the midfield alongside Bedoya. Once again, Dono looked out of place amongst the MLS players on the pitch, and it felt like a wasted 45 minutes for the Union. Then, to add salt to the wound, Andre Blake left the match early with a right leg injury, and Bruno Damiani missed a PK that would have made it 1-0. Overall, this was a night to forget, and one that the Union must bounce back from if they look to regain first place in the Eastern Conference and Supporters' Shield standings.

Roster Movement

On Sunday, Jose Nunez first broke the news that the Union were finalizing a deal to loan Oliver Semmle to North Carolina FC of the USL Championship. If you would like to read more about this move, I shared my reaction to this loan and you can read it here. In short, Oliver was clearly the odd man out (even on Union II), but the Blake injury certainly adds a unique twist to this move. Regardless of who fills in as the third goalkeeper, there will be an immense amount of pressure on Andrew Rick to fill in for Blake. Rick has done well in his starts throughout the season, and I have faith in the 19 year-old to play at a high level.

Next, Jakob Glesnes has been awarded a new contract. The Norwegian center back is now guaranteed through 2027, wth an option in 2028. Personally, I love this move for the Union. Jakob just turned 31, and despite a rough season last year (along with a lingering injury), he has returned to his more consistent form. Additionally, with Alejandro Bedoya seeing less time in the lineup, Jakob (along with Andre and Kai) have become the on-field leadership that the Union have needed under Carnell. Lastly, Olwethu Makhanya has grown into a rising start for this club, and I have to imagine that Jakob's leadership and guidance has been crucial for Olwethu in 2025.

Ernst Tanner also provided a quote once the news broke regarding Jakob. He said, "Jakob has been a reliable presence and an essential piece of our backline that has contributed to the team's success, earning well-deserved individual recognition along the way. His dedication to our style of play has been vital to the team's success and his emergence as a leader has made a significant impact. We're happy to have come to an agreement to keep him in Philadelphia for the years ahead".

Finally, expected and unfortunate news was released about Ian Glavinovich on Thursday. Ian was placed on the Season-Ending Injury list. In the Union press release, they added a very important detail about this move, “Per MLS rules, if a player suffers a season-ending injury, a club may place that injured player on the Season-Ending Injury List and receive roster relief (i.e., an open roster or international roster slot). Once placed on the Season Ending Injury List, the injured player will not be eligible to player for the club in any remaining competition during that MLS season (including any exhibition games or tournaments, including but not limited to: Leagues Cup, Campeones Cup, CONCACAF Champions Cup, Canadian Championship and Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup”.

The Union entered the Summer window deadline with an international spot left open via the Semmle Loan, and then another spot available with Ian's SEI List Designation. Union fans woke up on Friday morning without any additional moves, so it seems that Tanner could be relying on the current roster to close out the season.

Injury and Disciplinary Report

Bradley Carnell spoke with the media on Thursday afternoon, and he mentioned that Andre Blake will be out for the "next couple of weeks" due to a right hamstring injury. He did not offer more of a timeline than that, but he voiced a faith in Andrew Rick to step in for Andre during this time. Coach Carnell was not asked about Indy Vassilev's concussion, but the MLS injury report lists Indy as out for Saturday. The Fire currently have three players listed as out for Saturday too: Rominigue Kouame, Chris Mueller, and David Poreba.

Jakob Glesnes returns to the lineup after a yellow card accumulation suspension, and the MLS Disciplinary report does not show any Union players on yellow card accumulation watch. Brian Gutierrez, Mauricio Pineda, and Sam Rogers of Chicago are currently on the accumulation watch list.

Chicago Fire Preview

The Union and Fire face off for the second time this season. On June 25th, the Union squeaked away with a 1-0 win at Soldier Field thanks to a Damiani penalty kick in the 10th minute. Also, this was a match where Carnell had to get very creative with his lineup. Donovan, Bender, Rick, and Rafanello all started for Bradley, as did Alejandro Bedoya at right back. Needless to say, Ale won't be playing right back this weekend, and I expect the backline to be Kai, Olwethu, Jakob, and Frankie. Considering Nathan played center back last week, and Olivier started against NY, Frankie should be getting the start in Chester.

The Fire may not be a title contending squad, but similar to NYRB, they're fighting for that final playoff spot. In fact, at the time of this article, Chicago is in ninth, just above the Red Bulls. Over the last five games, they are 3W-2D-0L with wins against St. Louis, New York RB, and Montreal. They've also managed 2-2 draws against LAFC and Atlanta, and they have 10 goals across those five competitions.

Speaking of goals, the Chicago offense is dangerous to say the least. They have 50 goals so far in MLS (5th in the league), and two playmakers in particular have been filling the stat sheet. Hugo Cuypers has 15 goals this year, while Philip Zinckernagel has 11 goals and 10 assists on the season. In Chicago's match against St. Louis, both Hugo and Philip scored in the Fire's 3-2 victory.

The Fire might be able to score with the best of them, but their defense lets goals in nearly as often. Chicago has given up 44 goals on the season, while the Union have only allowed 26. Despite only having a +6 goal differential, Chicago is not to be overlooked on the road. Over the course of 13 games, the Fire are 7W-1D-5L on the road, with a +7 goal differential. For whatever reason, this team is confident and unafraid when walking into enemy territory.

The Union may be familiar with Chicago this year, but they'll be seeing two new players on the Fire roster. Joel Waterman (center back) was acquired from Montreal, and Andre Franco (attacking midfielder) was brought in from FC Porto. Considering the Fire's position in the East, the front office is clearly making a late playoff push. We'll see how many minutes each player sees this weekend in Chester.

Last but not least, we will be welcoming Jack Elliott to Subaru Park for the first time as a member of the Fire. Elliott, who nearly became the hero in the 2022 MLS Cup, spent 8 years with the Union's first team. Jack scored 14 goals across 270 matches, and alongside Jakob Glesnes, Elliott proved to be a reliable and stout defender during his Union tenure. Since joining Chicago, Jack has 1 goal and 2 assists on the season, and he has played 2,219 minutes across his 25 starts. This is Coach Berhalter's first season in the Windy City, and Jack has proven to be a valuable veteran presence for Gregg in 2025. We have also seen Jack wearing the captain's armband for the Fire, further proving his leadership in the locker room.

While I try not to get overly attached to any Union player, it's easy to see why Elliott became a fan favorite. He played with 100% effort and stepped up on the biggest stage with 2 goals in the MLS Cup defeat against LAFC. Considering the Union's current need for a center back, a part of me wishes we could have kept Jack at least one more year.

Betting Notes

The Union enter Saturday as favorites. They are at -130 on the regular time moneyline, while Chicago sits at +285. It's +280 for a draw. I know these teams played to a 1-0 draw in their first contest, but that score should be thrown out the window. As I mentioned above, the Fire enter this game in good scoring form, and they've brought in additional pieces to bolster their squad. Additionally, the Union were playing with a depleted lineup in the previous match, but we'll see a nearly complete roster on Saturday. On Draftkings, the total goals price is about what I expected. Over 2.5 total goals is -180, and Both Teams to Score is -190. The Fire's Total Team Goals is over 1.5 +135, while the Union over 1.5 is -180. With the weather showing a clear and sunny day on Saturday, I wouldn't be surprised to see a shootout in Chester, and it's clear that Vegas is expecting a high-scoring game. Right now, you have a Chicago team that has given up 2 goals in each of the last 2 games, and a Union squad that has struggled a bit when defending crosses. I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being a 3-2 contest when it's all said and done.

Let's get to the Anytime Goal Scorers. Baribo is at +100, Iloski is +140, Uhre is +180, and Damiani is +180. I don't know how much faith you all have in Bruno, but if there was ever a spot for Damiani to redeem himself, it would be this weekend. Bruno has been in the right position to score throughout the year, but it always feels like he is just shy of scoring. On Saturday, he gets to face a team that is vulnerable on defense, and I imagine Bruno has some extra motivation to silence his doubters. If he starts, I am taking a flier on the Uruguayan to find the back of the net.

As mentioned above, Zinckernagel has been lethal for the Fire offense, and I imagine he will test Kai Wagner as often as he can. 1+ assist for Zinckernagel is +380, which seems like a generous price. I do believe the Union will get scored on, and I would be surprised if Philip wasn't involved in the goal in some capacity.

I continued to look for different ways to play this game, and goalkeeper props intrigued me. Andrew Rick will need to be on high alert against this offense, and 3+ saves for Rick (+105) is catching my attention. I do have faith in the Union's defense to help Rick out, but the Fire's road form and recent scoring output can't be ignored. If I'm a Fire player, I am looking to test the 19 year-old keeper early and often.

Finally, I've said in the past how the Union rack up the corner kicks while at home, and their Team Total corners is over 5.5 (-130). The total match corners is over 9.5 (-130), and that's something I might consider for a parlay. If you pair Union moneyline with over 7.5 total corners, you get a decent +118 price.

There's multple ways to attack a game with this much offensive possibility, so be sure to check out the various available props. For example, the Union to score in both halves is +140. That's another one I might try considering Chicago's inability to keep the ball out of the net.

Final Thought

The Union dropped points against Toronto and New York, and they have fallen in the standings as a result. We only have 7 games left in the MLS schedule, and the margins are getting thinner each week. If the Union want to push for silverware, then it starts this week against Chicago. Earn a win at home, and then find ways to secure points in Cincinnati and Vancouver. This wil not be an easy task for Carnell's squad, but Bradley has found a way to unlock this club's potential this season.

We will not be having a Union post game show this week on AAT Sports Network on Saturday night. Please be sure to tune in on 8/30 after the Cincy game. Doop!