Union v Colorado: Match Preview & Betting Notes

Photo: I took this when Philly hosted Minnesota in 2024.

The Union carry a three-game unbeaten streak into Saturday's match against Colorado. Let's dive into what's been going on for the Blue and Gold.

Surviving the Dynamo

The Philadelphia Union had three matches last week, with their final game being a road trip to Houston. With the schedule and conditioning in mind, Bradley Carnell made significant changes to the Starting XI. We saw Westfield, Nathan, and Olivier share the backline with Jakob Glesnes, while Bedoya and Rafanello earned starts behind the forwards.

This match had a little bit of everything, including drama. Alejandro Bedoya scored his first MLS goal of the season (he has an Open Cup goal too), Jack McGlynn got his revenge on Philly when he scored a penalty kick in first half stoppage time, and Rosendo Mendoza's officiating (which included an overturned PK call when Bruno was fouled) left Union fans in an uproar.

While I could write an entire piece on the Union's road draw against Houston, I'll keep it short and sweet. First, the Union took care of business at home, and I have no problem with a road draw against a Western Conference opponent. Next, the Union continue to give up goals in stoppage time (or late in matches). Recently, we saw it in the first half against Montreal, and now again in Houston. The club needs to figure this problem out if they expect to go deep in the playoffs, and Jesus Bueno needs to be better on the wall. There's zero reason why his arm should be extending like that on a free kick. Lastly, VAR and MLS officiating is still so inconsistent, and it seems like the Union are victims of this more often than not. Regardless, the players need to be smarter as well. Westfield getting a red card (with Nathan Harriel already suspended for Colorado) was a tough mistake.

Bradley Carnell Press Conference

Bradley started by briefly praising the Union's three MLS All-Stars, which includes All-Star game MVP Tai Baribo. The Israeli national not only scored, but he became the first Union player to ever earn a goal in the All-Star match. Carnell went on to say that everyone was back for training, besides Ian Glavinovich. He also hinted that Jakob may have played a few more minutes than expected in Wednesday's exhibition match.

Bradley and Colorado Coach, Chris Armas, have past connections, and Kyle Almoney (from The One Team We Agree On) asked Carnell about his relationship with Armas. Bradley mentioned how much they've learned from each other, including Armas' treatment of others. Carnell stated how happy he is for Chris' success, and he praised Colorado and their talent. You can check out Bradley's full response on Kyle's twitter post.

You can watch all of Bradley's Pre-Match press conference here. In the remainder of the presser, Carnell discussed the Union's form at Subaru Park, and he was asked about the Summer window.

Colorado Preview

In my recent previews, I highlighted how fortunate Philly was to have their full roster nearly intact, but Carnell won't be so lucky this time around. First, Nathan Harriel (yellow card accumulation) and Frankie Westfield (red card suspension) will be unavailable on Saturday. This means Olivier Mbaizo will likely see his second consecutive MLS start, which hasn't happened since August 28 & 31 of 2024 (thanks to Todd Lewis of the Free Kick for finding that out for me). If that wasn't bad enough, four Union players will be on yellow card accumulation watch on Saturday: Alejandro Bedoya, Jakob Glesnes, Danley Jean Jacques, and Jovan Lukic. Additionally, Ben Bender popped up on the injury report on Friday. He is currently questionable for Saturday with a calf injury.

We all expected Neil Pierre to be involved in the center back rotation, but Carnell has yet to pull the trigger on that move. So far, he's used a rotating door of Nathan Harriel, Ian Glavinovich, and Jovan Lukic to fill in at CB. I expect Jakob and Makhanya to start in front of Blake this weekend, but I am curious to see if Pierre finds the bench with Harriel unavailable. Also, with two right backs out of the lineup, I anticipate that Nick Pariano could see the bench as well. Union II have a match this weekend, so we'll see who travels or stays with the first team.

Lastly, how could we forget about Cavan Sullivan. The teenage phenom is training with Manchester City, so he will be unavailable for Saturday's game against Colorado. This wouldn't be as bad of a blow if Ben Bender was healthy, but considering Ben's calf, I expect to see Rafanello, Bueno, and Bedoya as primary substitutions off the bench. It would be a great time to have someone like David Vazquez in the wings, but the Union just sent him on loan to San Diego FC (see the news here on AAT Sports Network).

Unlike the Dynamo, the Union have seen the Colorado Rapids a bit more recently. The Union hosted Colorado in the Leagues Cup Third Place game in 2024, which they lost in PKs at Subaru Park. Also, with that third-place defeat, the Union missed out on CONCACAF Champions Cup this year. In hindsight, I'm glad the Union are only worrying about Open Cup and MLS, but it was still a hard loss to swallow last season. In case you were wondering, Tai Baribo scored two first half goals during that match.

The Union have won the previous two MLS matches against Colorado. A 2-1 road victory in 2023 (goals by Wagner and Julian), and a 6-0 win in 2022 at home (goals by Carranza, Burke, Real, and a Gazdag hat trick). Also, I still laugh at some of those 2022 results. We really dominated teams, didn't we?

It's always tough for teams to travel across the country, but the Rapids will be bringing some offensive production into Subaru Park. Colorado had a 3-3 draw against Seattle in their last match, and they shut out Vancouver 3-0 on July 12th. Similar to the Union, they have different individuals scoring goals, and six different players found the back of the net in their last two matches: Mihailovic, Bassett, Yapi, Harris, Navarro, and Maxso. Speaking of Navarro and Mihailovic, the Union will need to be very mindful of these two players. This duo has combined for 23 goal contributions this season, with 9 goals coming from Mihailovic.

Thankfully, Colorado isn't too sharp on the road, and we hope that stays the same on Saturday night. The Rapids hold a 2W-4D-5L record on the road (10 points), with a -7 goal differential. Colorado has also scored 30 goals this season, but they have earned 6 of those from the penalty spot. Unlike the Union, the Rapids have struggled to score on set pieces. They only have 2 off set pieces, and 1 on a free kick.

Betting Notes

The Union are clear favorites Saturday night, but Colorado has positioned themselves in 7th place in the West, and should put up a tough fight. On DraftKings, the Union Moneyline (regular time) is -165, draw is +300, and Colorado Moneyline is +380. As I mentioned above, Colorado is finding ways to score, so I'm not surprised to see the Both Teams to Score price at -160. There is one thing I'd like to highlight though. The Philadelphia Union have allowed three goals in their last four matches, with two of those coming from a PK. As long as Philly can keep their wits about them in the box, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Union shut out Colorado.

The over match total goals is about what I expected. Over 3.5 goals is +150, while over 2.5 is a pricey -165. It's clear the books are expecting a shootout, or at least for the Union to earn a 2-1 result. If you're looking for a decent 2-leg parlay, the Union ML & over 2.5 total goals is +120. If you change it to over 1.5, it's still a decent price of -125.

Tai Baribo's Any Time Goal Scoring odds is what I expected after the MLS All-Star performance. Tai is at -110 on the ATG, while Bruno and Mikael sit at +165. For Colorado, Navarro is at +230, while Mihailovic is at +310. Honestly, that's a really good price for Mihailovic, especially since he's Colorado's leading scorer. Also, if you do want to explore more of Mihailovic's props, he is at -160 for having 1+ shot on goal. In comparison, Bruno is at a whopping -900 to get a shot on target. Again, if you wanna play around with a parlay: Union ML & Mihailovic to have 1+ shot on target is +168. That's a pretty intriguring play if you ask me.

Here's other ATG Union props: Quinn +320, Vassilev +425, Danley +700, Glesnes +1100, and Kai at +1500. Also, considering the Union's reliance on Quinn in the offense, I wouldn't be opposed to taking his 1+ assist at +330.

Final Thought

The Union sit in second place in both the Eastern Conference and Supporters' Shield standings. I should also mention that Nashville and Columbus lost last night, which was great for Philly's positioning this weekend. They are riding a three-game unbeaten streak into Saturday night, and they host a club that should be beatable in Chester. I know dropping 2 points in Houston is frustrating, but the Union still sit in great position. Take care of business at home, earn points when you can on the road, and Philly should find themselves at a comfortable spot when the playoffs roll around.

Don't forget to check out the Union post game show on AAT Sports Network. We go live about 15 minutes after the final whistle on Saturday. Doop!