The Backdoor Cover - NFL Week 9 Picks

By: Josh Gamble


*All lines are accurate as of Saturday afternoon*


Seahawks (-3) @ Bills – Over/Under 55

I do not care who they are playing, give me Russell Wilson every time the line is at a field goal or less. Josh Allen has come back down to earth after starting the season looking like a potential MVP candidate. The Bills have not looked good lately. They have looked like a different team the last 4 weeks or so. When I first looked at this line, I immediately thought it was a trap. As I thought more about it, this game looks so obviously like a trap that I think that is actually not. Vegas wants this game to look like a trap to entice people to take the Bills. The heavy amounts of cash on the Seahawks only helps to reaffirm my gut feeling. I am taking the Seahawks.

Broncos @ Falcons (-4) – Over/Under 49

I could give you a long drawn out explanation as to why I am staying away from this game, but I won’t. Both of these teams are terrible and I would advise everyone to stay away.

Bears @ Titans (-6.5) – Over/Under 47.5

The Bears and the Titans have been two of the more frustrating teams through the first half of the season. They show flashes of being legit playoffs teams only to come out the next week and lay an egg. The line and the total have both gone up 1 point since open. This is based largely on the amount of tickets on the Titans and the over. The public loves this combination this week. The sharp money is on the exact opposite, the Bears and the under. If you are the type that likes to fade the public then those should your plays this week. There are too many question marks each week for both of these teams for me to place any bets confidently.

Lions @ Vikings (-4.5) – Over/Under 50.5

This game hinges largely on whether or not Matthew Stafford plays this week. Every indication as of now is that he will play. He needs to have 5 days of negative tests in order to be eligible to play. As long as this happens, he will play with no practice as opposed to handing the keys over to Chase Daniel. Cash and tickets are both on the Vikings to cover while there is a split on the total. Cash likes the under and tickets like the over. What I am about to say is coming strictly from my gut and my experiences with the Lions. This is the type of game that the Lions usually win. The Vikings should be red hot after their win last week and not many people are giving the Lions much of a chance. Those are usually the situations where the Lions flourish. I may put down a small bet on the Lions moneyline this week, but I am not recommending you do so.