Philadelphia Union v San Jose Earthquakes: Match Preview and Betting Notes

Photograph Credit: Philadelphia Union

The Philadelphia Union fell to New York City on March 1st, and they will now carry a two-game MLS losing streak into their March 7th matchup against San Jose. Let's get into this preview!

Time to Worry?

It's only March 7th. That's what we all have to remember.

The Union have advanced to the next round of CONCACAF Champions Cup and will be hosting Club America on March 10th. However, after two concerning losses in MLS, I'm not sure if Philly will survive the Liga MX powerhouse.

With Ndinga still on his way, Carnell put Nathan Harriel on the left and Frankie Westfield on the right. Also, with Alladoh on a suspension, Anello was inserted into the starting lineup. He played alongside Vassilev, while Iloski played with Damiani up top.

The first half was a frustrating one. Although the Union were turning New York City over in the first 20 minutes, they couldn't find any connection in the final third. Furthermore, Harriel's reluctance on the left, along with the Union's narrow approach, made it easy for NYC to keep Freese out of harm's way.

As Dave Miller mentioned on our Union Post Game Show, the defense had issues all game, and that was put on full display during New York's first goal from Hannes Wolf.

The second half saw some improvements. Ben Bender brought more width into the attack, Stas was active and dangerous, and Nathan looked far more comfortable on the right. However, the Union couldn't find a goal from open play, and they settled for a penalty kick to tie it up.

Once again, the Union shot themselves in the foot. A soft yellow card was issued to Olwethu Makhanya for dissent, and the Boys in Blue were down a man for the 10 minutes of stoppage time. This was all New York needed to score their second goal and leave Chester with another victory.

Again, I'm not ready to panic. Ndinga may be the missing piece on the back line, while Sery Larsen and Martinez will continue to compete next to Makhanya. The offense has yet to score a goal away from the penalty spot, but they were down a man for 30 minutes in DC, while Alladoh and Anello are still getting adjusted to MLS. However, I am slightly concerned. We knew Kai's absence would create problems on both ends of the field, and Jakob's leadership in the back line is hard to replace. We'll see what Carnell has in store for us after a shaky start.

San Jose Preview

The Union may be winless, but San Jose has kicked off their season with two wins. They beat Kansas City 3-0 on February 21st, and then took care of Atlanta 2-0 on the 28th.

Bruce Arena enters his second season with San Jose. In his first year, the Quakes scored 60 goals, but they let in 63. Unfortunately for Arena, he lost three contributors from last season's squad. Josef Martinez (14 goals), Chicho Arango (13 goals), and Cristian Espinoza (4 goals and 8 assists) are no longer with the club. In their place, San Jose has brought in their biggest signing to date in Timo Werner. The German forward, who just turned 30 on March 6th, has seen time with RB Leipzig, Tottenham Hotspur, and the German National Team. He was also part of Chelsea's 2020-21 Champions League winning team. Needless to say, Werner is talented and brings a winning pedigree to Northern California. Timo, alongside players like Ousseni Bouda, Preston Judd, and Niko Tsakiris, will make up the Earthquakes attack.

Speaking of Judd, he's had a great start to the season. The Las Vegas native scored in first half stoppage time against Sporting KC, and then in the first half against Atlanta. He will be relied upon early on while Werner gets adjusted to MLS and his new teammates.

I was able to watch the San Jose v Atlanta game from Week 2 and noticed a few things to keep an eye on. First, the Quakes will get wide and did so often against Atlanta. Players like Jamar Ricketts will then whip crosses into the box at will, and Jamar in particular already has two assists on the season. Next, Niko Tsakiris may only be 20 years old, but his dangerous left foot will give the Union problems on set pieces. Finally, Timo Werner made his MLS Debut in the second half, and his impact was almost immediate. He took his defender on 1 v 1 and sent a perfect cross to Bouda in front of the net. I'm not sure if Werner gets the full 90 on Saturday, but I do expect him to start and cause havoc for the young Philly backline.

Player Availability and Betting Notes

First, Philly still has Eddy Davis and Quinn Sullivan listed on their injury report. However, Olwethu Makhanya will serve a one game suspension for his double-yellow/red card on Sunday afternoon. For San Jose, they have a complete squad and will not be missing anyone for injury or suspension.

My concern for Saturday's match is on the Union backline. Makhanya has been the strength of the defense so far in the first two games, and now Carnell will likely pair Martinez and Sery Larsen together at center back. These are two players that have yet to start an MLS match together, and if San Jose attacks Philly the same way they did Atlanta, then our new duo will be frequently tested with incoming crosses. The fact that Timo Werner could be on the end of those crosses is worrisome.

On the other half of the field, the Union will be facing a below average San Jose defense in 2025, who have yet to let in a goal in 2026. Additionally, Bruno and Alladoh have only played one match together, so a game against a mediocre defense could be just what the doctor ordered for a struggling offense.

Before I hop into the sportsbook, I do want to mention my other concern for Saturday night. The Union have yet to win an MLS game, but they have a significant match on Tuesday night against Club America. I expect there to be some rotation in the lineup, or maybe minute restrictions for some players. Also, Philly is playing a Western Conference team on Saturday. I'm not saying a loss wouldn't matter, but an out-of-conference loss isn't the worst thing in the world.

Ok, let's check out some lines and props. On DraftKings, the Union are -130 on the moneyline, the draw is +285, and the visitor's moneyline is +295. The Total Match Goals Over 2.5 is -150, which isn't surprising considering San Jose's 5 goals on the year and a likely start from Werner. Both Teams to Score is also a bit pricey at -165, but if I'm being honest, that seems like a great play. You can always pair that with another play to bring down the price, and I struggle to believe that one of these sides goes scoreless.

Since Timo is the hot topic of conversation in this match, let's go to his Anytime Goal Scorer prop. He is listed at +265 on DK, but considering his ability, I'm leaning more toward his To Score or Assist number of +155. We know he can score and pass, and we know he's facing a backline that has been susceptible so far in two games. I'm not hoping for him to hurt the Union, but if you wanted a safe player prop, a +155 for Werner to score or assist is a reasonable play. Lastly, another Werner play I like is 1+ Shot on Target for -165. I don't typically like plays at this price, but -150/-160ish is about as high as I'll go.

Bruno Damiani's Player Shots on Target number jumped out to me as I browsed the category. Bruno has yet to put a Shot on Target in MLS play, but 2+ Shots on Target for him is -150 on DraftKings. I'm confident that Damiani will get on the score sheet soon, and it's possible he does so against San Jose. However, I'm not exactly rushing to back him for Saturday. I might change my mind once he's in better form, but right now it's not worth the risk.

Next, let's briefly look at Assists. I'm not trying to be overly Pro San Jose in these betting notes, but their numbers are intriguing. For one, Jamar Ricketts 1+ Assist is +500. As I said earlier, Ricketts has been in good form to start the season and already has 2 assists. Additionally, if the Quakes are planning on widening the field, then I expect Ricketts to continue his crosses into the penalty area. Maybe Jamar cools off against Philly, but +500 for a guy who is off to a good start is a great price for bettors.

For my third category, I wanted to look at Corners. The Union may be struggling offensively, but they've been able to earn 5 corner kicks in each of their first two matches. Of course, DraftKings has their Corner Kicks at over 5.5 -150, but that's not terrible. The Union were much better at home than on the road with corners and had several games where they neared or passed double-digits for corner kicks. If the offense wants to get on the board, then they'll need to create more set piece opportunities. I think they can do that against San Jose.

Lastly, let's look at Any Time Goal Scorers. Damiani is +160, Korzeniowski is +175, Alladoh is +165, Iloski is +210, Werner is +265, Judd is +280, and Tsakiris is +750. Considering Tsakiris' involvement in the offense, +750 is intriguing. His To Score or Assist is +235, which also isn't bad for someone who will be the key set piece taker for the visitors. If you're looking for a long shot Union player, Nathan Harriel is +1700 and had some scoring chances when he played on the right hand side against NYC.

Final Thought

The Union have a tough stretch of games ahead and schedule congestion. They will also be introducing a new player into their rotation, which will add to the chemistry building and growth of this team. Am I still optimistic on the 2026 season? Yes, and I do believe this is still a deep squad. However, I'd be lying to you if i said the Union look strong right now. They're a young team that is still figuring things out, but they haven't looked promising yet.

After the match, join us on AAT Sports Network for our Union Post Game Show. We'll be live about 10 minutes after the final whistle, so hop in the comments and join the show!