Philadelphia Union v NYCFC: Match Preview & Betting Notes

Photo Credit: Philadelphia Union Social Media

It's been an interesting week for the Philadelphia Union. They advanced in CONCACAF Champions Cup with a 12-0 aggregate total against Defence Force. They also looked disjointed and fell to Tai Baribo and a revamped DC United. Let's review the recent Union news and dive into the NYC Preview!

Defence Force and DC United

The Union started their 2026 Campaign with a trip to Trinidad on Ash Wednesday, where they handed Defence Force a 5-0 thumping. Despite the positive result, Frankie Westfield picked up a hamstring injury after an impressive performance at left back. We also learned that Lukic was still on the mend after a rib injury.

Philly took the long flight back to Chester, hopped on the turnpike, and made their way down to the DMV. Although Francis was in the Starting XI graphic an hour before kick-off, Westfield was a late scratch by the time the whistle blew. Instead, Coach Carnell put Finn Sundstrom at left back.

A disaster may be an exaggeration, but it was a poor performance from the Union. The team looked unorganized and unprepared. Bueno and Vassilev had nights to forget, Sundstrom picked up an ankle injury, and Ezekiel Alladoh was given a straight red card for an offensive gesture/conduct. The Boys in Blue played down a man for 30 minutes, and despite having chances to tie it up, they left DC with a 1-0 result.

Thankfully, the Union had themselves a "get right game" on Thursday evening. Defence Force came to Chester for the second leg of the CCC, and the Union put 7 goals in the back of the net. Stas Korzeniowski and Cavan Sullivan shined in front of the small crowd, and they have both looked promising to start the season. We also saw an impressive debut from Giovanny Sequera, and Ben Bender earned his first goal for the Club. This may not have fully erased the memory of the DC loss, but it certainly got the vibes back on track before NYCFC.

NYCFC Preview

NYCFC gave us two different memories last year. During the regular season, Mikael Uhre secured the game-winning goal against New York City and earned the Union their second Supporters' Shield. Fast-forward to the playoffs, and the short-handed City side walked into Chester and knocked Philly out of the post-season.

The rivalry between New York City and Philadelphia has really blossomed. From the Covid Eastern Conference Final, to last season's highs and lows, I think it's safe to say that the Pigeons have become Public Enemy Number One for some Union fans. I know they are for me.

The expectations for a club like NYC are always high, but there's a handful of uncertainties entering this season. For one, Alonso Martinez tore his ACL in November and will likely miss most of 2026. The 27 year-old striker had 19 goals and 1 assist for City in 33 matches, which are large shoes to fill for any club. The visiting squad also moved on from their starting center back in Justin Haak, who has found a starting role with Jakob Glesnes in Los Angeles.

Despite those two absences, the Boys from the Bronx still have a formidable side with players who can cause the Union problems. Of course, we are all familiar with Matt Freese and what he's been able to accomplish in his short time with New York. Andre Blake's former backup is also in line to be the U.S. Men's National Team keeper for the 2026 World Cup. He will be a stout keeper on Sunday when he comes back to his former home.

In front of him, the ageless wonder of Maxi Moralez is still finding time in the Starting XI, and he earned 3 goals and 9 assists last season in MLS. Maxi is joined by Hannes Wolf and Nico Fernandez Mercau, both of whom will be relied on heavily to make up for Alonso's absence. Wolf had an impressive 2025 season with 11 goals and 6 assists in 38 matches, while Nico (brought in during the Summer) had 5 goals and 2 assists in his 16 appearances.

The Pigeons have already played an MLS match this season, which was a 1-1 draw against the Galaxy in LA's Home Opener. Similar to the Union, LA is in the CCC and they played against Sporting San Miguelito in Panama three days before they welcomed New York. Despite the travel, Klauss and company scored in the 2nd minute and looked to be primed for an easy victory. I was only able to watch the first half of Sunday's match, but two things stood out for me between LA and New York. First, Freese had some issues distributing the ball. The commentators mentioned that the sun could have played a factor, but it was an overall shaky half from Matt. I would expect the Union forwards to press him early and often on Sunday afternoon. Next, LA probably should have scored 2 or 3 goals in the first half. Between Freese's issues, and the Galaxy picking apart New York, this game could have been over by the 30th minute. Instead, New York held on, and thanks to a red card for Carlos Garces, Nico Fernandez Mercau tied up the game with a penalty kick.

I don't want to overlook New York, who were a strong defensive side last season and still have playmakers in their attack. However, they looked beatable on the road last Sunday, and considering the Union's home form in 2025, I'm expecting Philly to finish the chances that the Galaxy couldn't.

Player Availability and Betting Notes

First, let's discuss who is available on Sunday. New York has three players listed as out: Andres Perea, Malachi Jones, and Alonso Martinez. For the home squad, Quinn Sullivan and Eddy Davis (quad) are out with injuries, while Ezekiel Alladoh is serving his red card suspension for "Offensive/Insulting/Abusive Language or Action". This is a good injury report for the Union considering how the first two weeks have gone. I expect Frankie Westfield to start on the left, while Anello will likely see time off the bench. I imagine Sundstrom only sees time if there's a significant lead.

The Union are favored for Sunday's match against their I-95 rivals. I use DraftKings for all of my bets, although I recommend shopping around for better lines or different props.

The Union moneyline is +110, draw is +225, and NYCFC ML is +240. The Total Goals over 2.5 is +100, while the under 2.5 is -125. It should be mentioned that Philly and New York played three times last season. Each of those games ended in a 1-0 result. So, in case you're wondering, Both Teams To Score is -135 for Yes, and +105 for No. Personally, I'm staying away from BTTS and Goal Totals. It's still very early in the season, and we don't fully know what to expect from either club. However, if I had to pick one, the under 2.5 seems to be the most logical. Even without Martinez and Haak, the Pigeons are a solid defensive side and have Freese in net. They can certainly limit the Union to 1 goal.

My favorite play for Sunday is a simple one. The Boys in Blue need to continue their home dominance and there should be some revenge factor involved against NYC. Also, despite a match on Thursday against Defence Force, Carnell did a nice job of resting and rotating players. Lastly, NYC is still missing Alonso Martinez, and they needed a PK to score last week. For these reasons, the Union moneyline is an easy play for me.

Again, not trying to overthink today's plays. With Alladoh out, I believe Carnell will reward Korzeniowski for his impressive effort against Defence Force. However, don't rule out a chance that Anello gets a start. Last year, Bruno Damiani played well alongside Mikael Uhre, so Carnell might throw Anello into the Starting XI to mimic that combination. Speaking of Bruno, I believe he is the striker you want to focus on this Sunday. He didn't have a shot on target against DC, but don't let it deter you from backing the Uruguayan forward at home. 2+ Shots on Target for Damiani is -115, but 1+ Shot on Target and a Union moneyline win is +136. Personally, I like that 2-leg parlay a lot.

Another Player Shot Prop to look at is New York's Hannes Wolf. As I mentioned earlier, Wolf was heavily involved in the Pigeon's attack last season, and he will be relied upon again without Alonso Martinez. Against LA, the Austrian had 2 shots off target, but I expect him to keep shooting against Philly. 1+ Shot on Target for Wolf is -110. Considering the reliance on Wolf to create, I think that's a pretty good price.

Next, I'm going to transition into Player Assists. The one that stood out to me the most is again Hannes Wolf. 1+ Assist for Hannes is +600, and Maxi Moralez is also intriguing at +550. Both of these players will be doing what they can to feed Nicolas Fernandez Mercau. Frankly, once the NYC offense gets going, those prices will become less favorable for bettors. For context, Milan Iloski 1+ Assist is +340. My final choice for Assists is Frankie Westfield. We saw the perfect left-footed assist he had in Trinidad, and I expect Francis to be serving balls into the box again on Sunday. 1+ Assist for Frankie is +850. Similar to Maxi and Hannes, Frankie's number will not be that favorable down the road if he becomes a dangerous facilitator. Also, with Ndinga now part of the roster (not playing on Sunday), Westfield will need to prove to Carnell that he deserves to remain in the starting lineup.

Last but not least, I like to list our Goalscorer Props. Damiani is +195, Iloski is +230, Fernandez Mercau is +260, Korzeniowski is +300, and Wolf is +310. An interesting option that DraftKings provides is To Score or Assist, which benefits players like Milan and Hannes. Iloski is +110 in this category, while Wolf is +165. If you're looking for a juicy ATG play, Danley Jean Jacques is +1000, while Makhanya is +2000.

Final Thought

The CONCACAF Champions Cup is an important tournament to be in, but the schedule congestion and travel are real problems that MLS clubs face. We have seen multiple teams struggle in League Play when they're focusing on mid-week games and international flights. However, the Union are back home on a beautiful Sunday afternoon, and they've been local since the DC result. Fresh legs and a good crowd should be enough to push the Union to a victory today.

After the game, AAT Sports Network will be going live for our Union Post Game Show. Hop in the comments and join the conversation! Doop.