Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution: Match & Betting Notes

The Philadelphia Union picked the worst week to have two bad performances. On Saturday, Philly returns to Subaru Park, and we'll see if Carnell and company can get back to their winning ways.

Another Open Cup Let Down

The Union have sat on top of the MLS standings for a large portion of the season, and with that success came higher expectations. After the Cincinnati win, I was confident that the Union could win the Supporters' Shield, Open Cup, and maybe even MLS Cup. Although they remain in first after the Vancouver loss, their run to the Open Cup Final came to a brutal end in Nashville.

Coach Carnell decided to shake up the lineup before Tuesday's match. Quinn Sullivan was replaced by Indy Vassilev, which caught the attention of many Union fans. Quinn has not been filling the score sheet since his return from the Gold Cup, and I can understand why Coach decided to give him a rest. Unfortunately, the offense looked uninspired for a majority of Tuesday's match, and it took Quinn's presence in the second half to reenergize the club. His goal in the 70th minute made it a 2-1 match, and for a few minutes it felt like Philly would find their way back into the game.

However, Sam Surridge would complete his hat trick to make it 3-1, and the Union would fall to Nashville for the third time this season. I discussed the Union's previous two performances in my match preview on Tuesday morning. I did not believe that Nashville had seen the best version of the Union in their previous two contests, and I was confident that a fully equipped squad could get the job done. Instead, it appears that Nashville has the Union figured out, and I am dreading a potential 4th matchup in the MLS Playoffs. Yes, the Union were travelling back across the country on short rest, but this was an elimination match. I was hoping for a better performance, especially after a 7-0 embarassment in Vancouver.

Bradley Carnell Press Conference.

Bradley Carnell spoke with the media on Thursday afternoon, and he started the presser by discussing self-reflection. Coach mentioned the multiple errors that occurred during the last two matches, but growing as a team and learning from the mistakes. Bradley continued by saying, "it's one of those weeks that we wish we would forget, but if we're not feeling uncomfortable, it means we're not growing".

I appreciate the mentality that Bradley is trying to preach here, and the message in the locker room is clear. This team will continue to grow, and they'll learn from this bad stretch to improve during the final matches of the season.

Thankfully, Philly is back in Chester for Saturday's game, and Coach stated that the team must "play like a home team". Subaru Park has returned to the fortress it once was during Curtin's best years, and Coach is hoping for a sold out crowd on an early Saturday afternoon.

New England fired Caleb Porter earlier this week, and it's unclear how the team will respond on Saturday afternoon. Jillian Almoney of The One Team We Agree On asked Bradley about New England's road form, which is 5W-5D-5L. Coach made it clear that their previous form under Porter must be thrown out. The Revs will need to adjust under Interim Head Coach Pablo Moreira, and Carnell mentioned that New England still has a good team. Specifically, Bradley praised Carles Gil and Langoni.

Finally, coach complimented Andrew Rick's performances and resiliency over the last two matches, and he mentioned that Andre Blake is still day-to-day. As of now, it's unclear if we'll see Blake on Saturday, but Rick will be good to go.

If you'd like to watch all of Carnell's presser, I've added it here.

New England Revolution Preview

As mentioned above, Pablo Moreira will be taking over for Caleb Porter. Pablo has won two MLS Cups as an Assistant Coach: 2015 with Portland and 2020 with Columbus. He is entering the second season with New England, but has served as an assistant coach for 11 years. Needless to say, Moreira has been surrounded by winning cultures with Portland and Columbus, and he looks to bring that to the Revolution for the remainder of the season.

Also, Tom Bogert mentioned that Jim Curtin and New England are in talks, but that's a topic for another day.

The Revolution are currently in 11th place in the Eastern Conference Standings with 32 points, and they're 10 points behind Chicago for the last playoff spot. The Revs will need to win out and hope for some luck if they expect to make the playoffs.

New England will be entering Chester in poor form. They've lost 3 of their last 5 games, with a 1-1 draw to Toronto and a 2-1 win against Columbus during that stretch. Despite their recent form, the Revs are much better on the road. They hold a 3W-3D-9L record at Gillette Stadium, but they're 5W-5D-5L on the road, as Jillian mentioned in the presser. They also have a +2 goal differential when on the road, so I expect them to give Philly a tough match.

On offense, the Revs have 39 goals on the season, but 5 of those have come from the penalty spot, and 4 of them from own goals. Yes, they do have some dangerous players like Carles Gil, but they've only scored 24 goals in open play. The Union have given up 10 goals over their last two matches, so I'm anxious to see how the defense responds to a "weaker" opponent. Lastly, I do want to mention that Carles Gil has 10 goals and 6 assists on the season. No surprise that he continues to make an impact for New England.

We have three players suspended for Saturday's match. Mamadou Fofana is suspended for New England, while Makhanya and Lukic are both serving yellow card accumulation suspensions. Leo Campana, Tai Baribo, and Frankie Westfield will also be entering Saturday on Caution Accumulation Warnings, but Leo has been ruled out with an abductor injury. Finally, Ganago (calf) and Polster (knee) are out and questionable for the Revs, respectively.

The Union have been rotating their squad considering the congested week, and we'll be seeing that again on Saturday. I anticipate that Harriel will be involved again on the backline. Also, with Lukic out, Jesus Bueno will need to step up in his absence. Bueno has had a difficult season. He didn't see much time earlier in the year, and his hand balls have caused two penalty kicks against Houston and Vancouver. I still love Chu Chu, but he needs to become a more impactful player for Philly. I'm not expecting for Jesus to replicate the ability of Jovan Lukic, but I'd love to see the 2023 Leagues Cup version of Bueno again.

As I'm typing this on Friday morning, the Union released the news that Frankie Westfield will be headed to the U-20 World Cup. Congrats to Frankie on the major accomplishment, and I'm curious to see how this impacts Westfield's role on Saturday afternoon. If Westfield does not play, I imagine that Olivier Mbaizo would start at right back in his place. We could also see Nathan at right back and Neil Pierre at center back. I guess we'll see how Carnell adjusts to this news.

Betting Notes

Before I dive into the betting notes, I always recommend using multiple sportsbooks. I use Draftkings for my articles, but please shop around for prices.

Despite their recent form, the Union enter this home match as clear favorites. Draftkings has the Union Moneyline (regular time) at -220, while the draw is +350, and the Revs ML is +500. Considering their road form, that's a pretty intriguing number if I wasn't a Union fan. Even the Tie No Bet for New England is +390, and considering Philly's poor form in their last two games, that's also very enticing from a betting perspective.

As I mentioned in my Open Cup match preview, betting on a team that is struggling can be challenging. Additionally, the Union will be missing two, if not three players in Lukic, Makhanya, and Westfield. If this was a road match, I would be a bit more concerned with how Mbaizo, Harriel, and Bueno would do in the lineup. However, I have more confidence in this team's depth at Subaru Park. The Boys in Blue have dominated opponents at home, with a 10W-4D-1L record during their MLS campaign. Also, they hold an impressive +19 goal differential in Chester. Regardless of those numbers, I expect the Revs to be a bit juiced up under a new coach, so I took a look at Player Shots.

Carles Gil 1+ Shot on Target is -160, while 2+ shots is +300. The Revs clearly go as Carles Gil goes, and I expect him to test Rick or Blake when given the chance. Bueno and Jean Jacques will likely be starting for Carnell on Saturday, and their Player Shots are: Bueno 1+ Shot on Target +150 and Danley 1+ Shot on Target +140. I may take a try on Danley again considering his continued involvment in the offense. Finally, Carles Gil 1+ Shot on Target and a Union Moneyline is +138 on Draftkings. I really like that two-play parlay with the Union in Chester.

The Philadelphia forwards have not scored over the last two matches, but I believe that could come to an end against Matt Turner and the Revs. The Union Anytime Goalscorers are: Baribo -120, Uhre +170, Damiani +170, and Iloski +195. This is the Union's third game in a week, so I would consider waiting for the lineup to come out before placing any of these bets. I would imagine that Baribo and Damiani start, but Carnell has been switching things up recently. Either way, Philly needs a bounce back game, and I still have faith in this team to earn the W.

The Union moneyline is too juicy to bet straight up, so try to pair it with a Player Prop to bring down the price like I did with Carles Gil Shots on Target. I may not be too high on the Union's form right now, but a win at home feels more than doable.

Final Thoughts

The Union still control their own destiny (for the most part), even with other teams having games in hand. The final push to the Supporters' Shield starts on Saturday, and once again this team's depth and resiliency will be tested.

We'll be live on AAT Sports Network after the final whistle. You can comment on our post game show on Facebook and YouTube, so please feel free to join the convo! Doop!!