Week 16 was nothing to write home about for the home team (me). It seemed like every guy in my lineup was ok. Not terrible, but not great. I just couldn’t get over the hump in many of my contests. Derrick Henry, who we are on pretty much every week came in with just 9.8 points. The frustrating part was that he really didn’t have a terrible game from a statistical standpoint as he rushed for 98 yards on 23 carries. He just could never really break loose and failed to get into the end zone or reach the 100 yard bonus. At $8500, missing on him was pretty much the end of your day.
We are now on to Week 17. Across the industry, you will hear many people say that they hate Week 17. Of course, if you are playing in a season long league that has their championship game this week, you need to find another league. However, I look at this week in DFS as a very exciting opportunity for the people who are willing to put in the work. You have to pay closer attention to things this week. The great teams will rest their guys. The good teams that will be in the playoffs, will likely pull their guys early if they are winning or losing big. There are a lot of factors that come into play this week and I personally am ready for it. I’m excited about the opportunity for our higher end stacks. I also noticed less value for the low-end WR’s this week. There are only a handful of guys that I’m willing to pay down for and we will touch on those later in this article. There are 15 games on the Main Slate this week, so there are plenty of great ways to build your lineup. Here are my plays for Week 17:
Stack #1
HOU vs TEN: Implied game total of 56.5 points.
1. Deshaun Watson - $7700
- Has there been a more unvalued QB this season than Watson? He is averaging 25.3 points per game, playing for a team that has been one dimensional for most of the season. Tennessee’s secondary is pretty bad, so I expect a huge game from Watson.
2. Brandin Cooks - $6900
- Cooks finally has received the price bump he has deserved for most of the season. He has been Watson’s favorite target since Fuller has been out and I expect that to continue this week against a bad Tennessee secondary.
3. Keke Coutee - $5600
- Coutee has averaged 15.3 points per game since Fuller has been out. He is the primary #2 target in this passing game.
4. AJ Brown - $7200
- Brown continues to be under-owned just about every week despite averaging 17.4 points per game. He is an elite WR and it will be tough for Houston to slow him down this week.
**This leaves you with $4520 per player to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of usatoday.com
Stack #2
GB @ CHI: Implied game total of 50.5 points.
1. Aaron Rodgers - $7400
- The MVP candidate has averaged 25.3 points per game, but still seems to be underpriced. He has scored at least 18 points in each of the 10 weeks and it’s a no-brainer to stack him and Adams each week.
2. Davante Adams - $9200
- Adams is having one of the best fantasy seasons that we have ever seen from the WR position. He is averaging 30 points per game over the last 4 and figures to be a huge part of GB’s hunt for the #1 seed.
3. Allen Robinson - $7700
- Robinson is an obvious bring back candidate in this stack. He is averaging 17.9 points per game and 21.4 over his last 5.
4. Darnell Mooney - $4100
- Mooney has carved out a nice role as CHI’s #2 option in the passing game. Since we are paying up for the other three guys in this stack, I needed a cheap option to plug into this lineup.
**This leaves you with $4320 per player to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of startribune.com
Value Stack
CLE vs PIT: Implied team total of 26.25 points. (CLE)
1. Baker Mayfield - $5500
2. Jarvis Landry - $6500
3. Rashard Higgins - $4500
4. CLE Defense - $2500
**This leaves you with $6200 per player to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of gq.com
Favorite Plays
Kirk Cousins - $6300 @ DET
Nick Chubb - $7600 vs PIT
Jonathan Taylor - $7400 vs JAX
David Johnson - $6800 vs TEN
Miles Gaskin - $6500 @ BUF
D’Andre Swift - $6300 vs MIN
Jeff Wilson - $6000 vs SEA
Adam Thielen - $7400 @ DET
DK Metcalf - $7300 @ SF
Jamison Crowder - $ 5000 @ NE
Photo courtesy of pff.com
Sleepers
Drew Lock - $5000 vs LV
Tyler Boyd - $4900 vs BAL
Jerry Jeudy - $ 4200 vs LV
Jalen Guyton - $3400 @ KC
Braxton Berrios - $3300 @ NE
Photo courtesy of thedenverchannel.com
I feel more confident in my stacks for Week 17 than I have in the last few weeks. Watson continues to be under-owned each week, despite having a really nice season. I think GB @ CHI will be the best game of the week, so I wanted to get involved in that matchup. My value stack is based on two factors. First, the Cleveland guys are underpriced, as a result of what happened last week. Let’s not forget that the Browns were rolling before COVID went through their WR room. Second, I love that the Browns are going up against a Steelers team that is resting several key players and most likely will lessen the workload for other players as well. I even included a defense for the first time in my stack. A motivated CLE defense will be going up against a bunch of second stringers. What’s not to like about that? I’m pumped and ready for this week. More so this week than any other, you need to pay attention to what is going on right up until the lineups lock. You never know who else may be ruled out before the games start on Sunday. Let’s finish this season on a good note! As always, if you have any questions about your lineups, please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @jsulli2121. Good luck!
-Jason Sullivan