Union v Red Bulls: Match Preview and Betting Notes

Photo Credit: Philadelphia Union Social Media

The Philadelphia Union will take on the New York Red Bulls for the 2nd time this week. Let’s review the last few days of the Blue and Gold and preview this weekend’s match.

Bad Habits

We had a little bit of everything this week leading into Saturday’s match. The Union hosted Toronto FC last weekend, and despite leading for a majority of the game, Philadelphia conceded another stoppage time goal. The contest would end in a 1-1 draw, and this would be the 8th time this season that the Union have conceded in either 1st or 2nd half stoppage time. This has clearly become a bad habit for Philly since the start of May, and if they plan on making a title run, then it needs to be fixed soon. Despite dropping 2 points at home, Cincinnati fell to Charlotte, and the Union maintained a two-point lead in both the Eastern Conference and Supporter’s Shield Standings. Even though the draw with Toronto felt like a loss, there was a sense of relief knowing we didn’t drop in the standings.

On Wednesday night, the Union and New York Red Bulls played their rescheduled quarterfinal match in the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup. We had all been anxiously waiting for this game, but Mother Nature would again interfere with our plans. A two-hour rain delay pushed the start time for Wednesday night to 9:30pm, but the match was certainly worth the wait. The Philadelphia Union erased two 1-goal deficits on Wednesday, and Olwethu Makhanya would prove to be the hero as the match approached the end of regulation. With their win against New York, the Union will head to Nashville to fight for a spot in the Open Cup Final. Also, with Wednesday’s victory, the Union now have a 12W-4D-0L record against New York in their last 16 matches. That’s truly incredible.

Injury and Disciplinary Report

Bradley Carnell did not have his usual Pre-Match Press Conference on Friday afternoon, and I was hoping to hear Coach speak about Indy Vassilev's status. However, as posted on MLSsoccer.com, Indy is currently listed as out with a concussion. Ian Glavinovich is still listed as out too, but that has been the norm for some time. Lastly for Philly, Glesnes is suspended for Saturday's match due to yellow card accumulation, and Lukic is currently one card away from suspension (as of August 12th on MLSsoccer.com).

For the Red Bulls, they will be missing Kyle Duncan on red card suspension. Additionally, two significant players have popped up on New York’s injury list: Choupo-Moting is questionable with a knee injury, and Mohammed Sofo is questionable due to illness. The Red Bulls have several players on their injury list, so we’ll see how Sandro Schwarz adjusts his lineup.

New York Preview

Quentin Hall of AAT Sports Network provided us with his preview before Wednesday night’s match, and I’ve included it here. Although not much has changed between the two clubs since Quentin’s article, there’s a handful of things that we’ll be keeping an eye on in Harrison, NJ.

First, since Glesnes will be unavailable for selection on Saturday night, I expect to see Harriel and Makhanya paired up in between Wagner and Westfield. Frankie played most of Wednesday’s game at right back, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Carnell threw Mbaizo in as a late sub (depending on the flow of the game) to relieve Westfield.

Next, Choupo-Moting and Forsberg came off the bench in the quarterfinal, and I fully expect Forsberg to start. Considering Eric’s knee issue, it’s unclear if he will start, or again come off the bench. Regardless, both players proved to be a headache for Philly on Wednesday, and our center backs will need to be more alert of Choupo-Moting’s movements (even if he isn’t 100%). He is far too dangerous of a player to go unmarked behind the back line, and Jakob’s delay in coverage left Eric wide open when he scored his goal.

With Indy Vassilev unavailable, I expect Carnell to start a fairly rested Milan Ilsoki. Milan came off the bench in both matches this week, and I expect to see him slotted at the 10. I am also curious to see if Quinn Sullivan starts. He has played a majority of the minutes this week, so perhaps Rafanello or Bender will begin the match behind the forwards.

Speaking of the forwards, Tai and Bruno started against Toronto and New York. I believe Mikael Uhre will begin the match, and rightfully so. Mikael earned the Union a win against Colorado, and his subtle movement on Saturday gave Milan a clear shot on net for his goal. Although Uhre’s tenure with Philly has received mixed reactions, he is clearly an important part of this squad’s success in the final third.

For Saturday, I will be focusing on a couple of things from Philly’s side. First, the Union must continue to remove their stoppage time miscues. We did not concede a goal in stoppage time against NYRB on Wednesday, so I hope to build off that in Harrison. I shared my recent tweet below that displays all 8 of the matches where we conceded in stoppage time. Due to those mistakes, the Union have dropped 10 points and a +8 Goal Differential.

Next, for as strong as the Union are attacking on set pieces and crosses, their defense hasn’t been stellar of late when dealing with balls into the box. There needs to be more awareness from the back line and defenders when man marking and on set pieces. The Union defense remains stout, but there’s improvements to be made with a third of the season remaining.

Betting Notes

We have two recent Union v NY matches to look at for today’s betting notes. The Union won 2-0 about a month ago (goals by Bruno and Indy), and 3-2 on Wednesday (goals by Baribo, Iloski, and Makhanya). One player that has had recent success against New York is Indy Vassilev. Not only did he score in their first meeting, but his flick off the wall allowed Tai to earn his goal in the quarterfinal. We all know Indy’s value from a pressing standpoint, but there must be some acknowledgment for his recent offensive production. Since July 12th, Indy Vassilev has 2 goals and 2 assists across all competitions. That will certainly be missed on Saturday.

The betting lines reflect the competitive back and forth nature of Wednesday’s game. Union and Red Bulls moneylines are +135 and +175, while the draw is +245.

After a dramatic 3-2 finish on Wednesday, I’m a bit surprised that the over 2.5 total match goals isn’t a bit more expensive than -140. However, we saw a lot of tension between the clubs on Wednesday, and I’m sure there will be some tired legs and rotation in both starting lineups. For those reasons, I could see this being a 1-1 draw (even with New York's potential absences). We all know the Union will eventually lose to New York, but this historic run of 16 matches has been impressive. For whatever reason, the Union know how to keep these games close, and I have faith that we can extend that unbeaten streak to 17. With that said, the Tie No Bet for the Union (-130) is a reasonable play. We make a profit if the Union win, but it’s a no harm, no foul if they draw. We know Philadelphia is the better team, and unless they perform poorly, I would be surprised to see the Union walk away empty-handed.

As I mentioned above, the Union have scored 5 goals in their last two games against New York. For that reason, I looked at the Union Team Total Goals. Over 1.5 team total goals is -110 for the Blue and Gold, which is intriguing. Yes, I do believe this game could be a 1-1 draw between two tired and combative sides, but the Union’s offense (with Milan Iloski now included) has proven to be dangerous. Over 1.5 Union goals is something I may play once the lineup is released.

The Anytime Goal Scorer props are as expected: Baribo +140, Iloski +195, and Uhre and Damiani both at +255. Again, if Uhre does start, I would love to put a bet down on the +255 play. For New York, Choupo-Moting is at +150 and Forsberg is +195. Some other Union ATG numbers are: Cavan +500, Lukic +650, Bueno +750, DJJ +1000, and Harriel +1700. With Indy out, and Quinn possibly seeing less minutes, a play on Cavan or Alejandro (+550) could be worth a try. We have yet to see the younger Sullivan score, and Bedoya has stepped up when called upon.

Final Thoughts

The Union have not lost a match since their 1-0 defeat in Nashville. Since then, they have a 4W-3D record entering Saturday’s contest. I expect this to be a hard-fought game, and with the Union in prime position for multiple trophies, each match will feel like a playoff game. We’ll see if Carnell can push this squad to the finish line with about 2 months left in the season.

Don’t forget to join us live on AAT Sports Network after Saturday’s match. We’ll be live

on Facebook and YouTube 15 minutes after the final whistle. Doop!