Jason Sullivan's Week 12 Draft Kings Preview
The story of this NFL season has been the uptick in scoring league wide, and Week 11 proved to be more of the same. The age old dilemma in DFS of paying up for slam dunk plays or trying to find value was on display again. Paying up for Dalvin Cook and Davante Adams again proved to be the smart thing to do. We saw the same thing with Christian McCaffrey last season; if these high-priced guys pay off week in and week out, why do we even question adding them into our lineups? We need to pay up for the sure things and go from there. We are now on to Week 12 and there’s a lot to like about this slate. My early observation is that there are not nearly as many value stacks as there have been in recent weeks. You are going to have to pay up for the elite stacks on this slate. On the plus side, there are a ton of value plays at WR this week, which will give you a lot of flexibility. I will be paying up at the QB position in a majority of my lineups. I feel like there are some smash plays among the elite guys and I think that’s the way to go this week. As a reminder, we focus on the Sunday Main slate only. Here are my favorite stacks and plays for Week 12. Stack #1 BUF vs LAC: Implied game total of 53 points.
1. Josh Allen - $7600
-The Bills offense has really got it rolling again recently, with Allen being the key to their revival. Allen has 29 and 39 points the past two weeks and I like him to keep it going against the Chargers soft pass defense. 2. Stefan Diggs - $7600
-We've been rolling with Diggs for the entire season and this week with be no different. Diggs is averaging over nine targets a game and has been Allen’s favorite target throughout the season. As Allen and Diggs go, so does the Bills offense. 3. Hunter Henry - $4800
-My first instinct was to come back with Keenan Allen, but doing that will put you in a tough spot because of how expensive this stack will be. Henry has gotten more involved in the Chargers offense with at least six targets in each of the last three games. He is one of my favorite TE options on the slate and a perfect fit for this stack. **This leaves you with $5000 per player to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of bleacherreport.com
Stack 2 MIN vs CAR: Implied game total of 51.5 points.
1. Kirk Cousins - $6100
-Minnesota has been putting it all together on offense for the last two weeks and I like that to continue this week. Cousins has put up 20, 18 and 27 points in his last three games. 2. Justin Jefferson - $6300
-With Adam Thielen not expected to play, I love Jefferson this week. He has been a boom or bust play this season, but I expect him to approach 10 targets this week. When he is targeted he produces.
3. Robby Anderson - $6100
-Anderson has been solid this year, but has only scored one TD on the season. I'd like that to change this week against Minnesota’s poor secondary. **This leaves you with $5250 per player left to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of bleacherreport.com
Value Stack ATL vs LV: Implied team total of 25.5 points.
1. Matt Ryan - $5900
2. Calvin Ridley - $7100
**This leaves you with $5286 per player to build the rest of your lineup.
Photo courtesy of atlallday.com Favorite Plays 1. Dalvin Cook - $9500 vs CAR
2. Wayne Gallman - $5000 @ CIN
3. Tyreek Hill - $7800 @ TB
4. Cooper Kupp - $6400 vs SF
5. Antonio Brown - $5700 vs KC
6. Jamison Crowder - $5400 vs MIA
7. Michael Pittman - $5000 vs TEN
8. Corey Davis - $4900 @ IND
9. Mike Gesicki - $4300 @ NYJ
Photo courtesy of forbes.com
Sleepers 1. James White - $4500 vs ARI
2. Tim Patrick - $4900 vs NO
3. Breshad Perriman - $4200 vs MIA
4. Jakeem Grant - $3700 @ NYJ
5. Denzel Mims - $3500 vs MIA
6. Golden Tate - $3500 @ CIN
Photo courtesy of nydailynews.com
I say this every week, but I love some of the value plays that are on the board this week. Paying down at a spot or two in your lineup can open up some big things. The WR spot in particular has a ton of mid to low-end value plays that I love. As a reminder, it only takes one or two low-owned guys in your lineup to make it contrarian. Don’t go over board with trying to find “sleeper” plays. Low-owned doesn't always mean value. As always, if you have any questions for me, don’t hesitate to reach out on Twitter @jsulli2121. Good luck this week! -Jason Sullivan