Union v Red Bulls - U.S. Open Cup: Match Preview & Betting Notes

Photo: I took this photo when the SOB had the pinata at the tailgate. Good times lol

Finally, my favorite home match of the season. The New York Red Bulls come to Chester this week, and our Boys in Blue get two cracks at their I-95 rivals!

Good to be Home

It's been a tough couple of weeks for the Philadelphia Union, as they carry a two-game losing streak into Wednesday night's quarterfinal match. Despite the two losses, there are a few positives to take away from the Columbus and Nashville games.

Olwethu Makhanya had an impressive road trip, even with an unfortunate foul that led to the Nashville PK. He was the Union's man of the match against Columbus, and he continues to show his confidence and skillset alongside Jakob Glesnes. It was only a few months ago that fans were hoping for center back depth in the Summer window. Instead, Jakob and Makhanya have been a consistent strength for Philly behind the defensive mids. This is important for the usage of Nathan Harriel. Frankie Westfield is dealing with an injury, and Union fans should feel confident in the back four of Kai, Jakob, Olwethu, and Nate. Additionally, if Carnell wants to try three center backs, it seems that Nathan, Jakob, and Makhanya could be a stout force, with Kai and Frankie free to move higher into the attack.

Speaking of Harriel, both he and Quinn have finally finished their lengthy international duty. The U.S. Men's National Team fell to Mexico in the CONCACAF Gold Cup Final. Neither player was overly used during their call-up, and I fully anticipate that Nate and Quinn will be chomping at the bit to play a full 90. Quinn Sullivan in particular can't get back into the Union lineup soon enough. We know that Ernst Tanner may not be able (or willing) to address multiple positions during the Summer window, but these last few games without Quinn made something crystal clear. The Union have little to no creative playmakers in the midfield besides Quinn.

This is not a knock on the other attacking midfielders. Ben Bender and Indy Vassilev provide a lot in the press and have shown signs of promise in the attack. Alejandro Bedoya has shown glimpses of his former self, but he's still an aging player who should not be relied on for lengthy periods. Cavan Sullivan received more than enough time to prove himself in Ohio and Tennessee, but he was far from impressive in his opportunity (Yes, I know he's just 15). Finally, Jeremy Rafanello has been serviceable in his outings, but Carnell has also used him as a defensive mid, and even a right back. Again, this is not a disrespect toward the other players, but Quinn is simply on a different level. He has a high motor that allows him to fit into Carnell's pressing system, he can and does take players 1 v 1 to spark the offense, and his passes and shots in the final third have improved since last season. It's unclear if Tanner does make an impactful move this Summer, so in the meantime, let's all say a prayer that Quinn can remain healthy for the rest of the season. This team needs him more than we initially realized.

Injury Update

Bradley Carnell spoke with the media on Tuesday afternoon. Quinn and Nathan are eligible for selection on Wednesday night. Bueno, Uhre, and Frankie are still dealing with their injuries, but of the three players, Westfield is the closest to returning. We'll see if he can find the bench on Wednesday evening.

Familiar Foes

I couldn't remember when we last played the Red Bulls in the U.S. Open Cup, and I can see why. Philly last played NYRB on June 16, 2018, which was a 2-1 victory in Chester, PA. Goals were scored by Haris Medunjanin and Cory Burke (two players I definitely miss). Wednesday's fixture will be the 5th time these two rivals face each other in the Open Cup. The Union have won two of those matches in regulation, while the two others went to PKs. Each team has won a PK shootout.

We may have different opinions on Jim Curtin's time as the Union manager, but one thing we can agree on is his recent dominance over the Red Bulls. The Boys in Blue currently have a 14 game unbeaten streak (10W, 4D) against New York, which dates back to a 2-0 Union loss on September 22, 2019. In case you're wondering, only Bedoya, Kai, and Blake remain from that 2019 team that lost to New York. If Carnell can extend that to 16 games by Saturday night, I will quickly forget the frustrations we had on the road trip.

Betting and Match Notes

The Union are carrying a two-game losing streak into Chester, while the Red Bulls have drawn their last three matches. They had a 1-1 tie in San Jose on Saturday, a 2-2 result at home against Minnesota, and a 1-1 draw in Toronto. Their last win was a 2-0 victory against Atlanta, and they lost to Austin 2-1 on 6-14-25.

Emil Forsberg has been in good form over the last two matches, particuarly in the first half. The Swedish midfielder had a 19th minute goal in San Jose, and an 11th minute score against Minnesota. The Union backline did well to keep Sam Surridge out of the goal in Nashville, and they'll have their hands full again with Emil. Let's not forget Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting as well, who isn't far behind Tai Baribo in the Golden Boot Race. Eric has 11 goals on the year, with his most recent being a 90th minute score in the 2-2 draw against Minnesota. I have my concerns about the Union's attack, but the defense needs to be on their A game this week.

If you read my preview for the Nashville match, you saw my lean toward the home moneyline, Union draw no bet (almost got that one) and under 2.5 total goals. Also, I mentioned how difficult it is to bet on the Union right now, considering the injuries and uncertain lineup each week. I feel a bit more confident today though, as Quinn Sullivan will be available for selection, and Tai Baribo should see more minutes than he did Saturday.

First, a quick reminder for soccer moneylines. Unless the book you use says otherwise, moneyline plays in soccer are only for regular time. So, if the Union win in PKs, that does not count toward the moneyline. With that in mind, Union regular time moneyline sits at -115, while the Red Bulls are at +270. If you believe the Union can handle their business in 90 minutes, then that's a good price for the home side. However, on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Union advancing is at a pricey -220, while New York sits at +145.

For this match, I took a look at Both Teams to Score, which is currently at -155. I don't typically make plays over -150, but this one caught my attention. Although the Union have been strong defensively this year, they've still given up a goal in two consecutive matches. As I mentioned above, Forsberg is coming into this match in good form, and Choupo-Moting has found the back of the net 11 times this season. I didn't have much faith in the Union's offense prior to this match, but Quinn, a healthier Baribo, and more consistency at right back should be the right boost of energy this offense needs. If you don't mind more juice, a Both Teams to Score bet between two rivals could be the play. Lastly, if you're trying to find a way to bring down the price, a 2-leg parlay of Union advancing (-220) and BTTS (-155) is +130.

Of course, we can't forget about Anytime Goal Scorers. Staying with DraftKings, it looks like Vegas has taken notice of Tai Baribo's (and probably Quinn's) return. Baribo ATG is at +120, while Damiani's price has increased dramtically since the Nashville match (he is now at +160). Choupo-Moting is at an enticing +220, and the same can be said for Forsberg at +280. If you're looking for better payouts for the Union: Quinn (+360), Bedoya (+500), Glesnes (+1100), and Wagner (+1700). I might put a small flyer on Damiani. He has been at a disadvantage considering who has been playing aroud him, but Quinn and Tai could be what's needed to get Bruno a goal.

Final Thought

Philadelphia sports fans embrace the roller coaster of the season. We are on cloud 9 during the highs, and miserable on the lows. I think it's easy to feel frustrated and disappointed after the last two results, but context is everything. Bradley Carnell managed a road win in Chicago, and even with two defeats in Columbus and Nashville, we were two mistakes away from leaving with a point in each match. The Union's reinforcements are working their way back into the lineup, and we only sit two points back of first in the Eastern Conference. Get healthy, put all your eggs in an Open Cup run, and the highs will return for the Union faithful. Carnell has shown that this team is resilient, and I fully believe we'll be back to normal soon enough.

Don't forget to check out our Union Post Game Show after Wednesday's match. We'll be live on Facebook and Youtube 15 minutes after the final whistle. Doop!