Union v Nashville: U.S. Open Cup Semifinal - Match & Betting Notes

Photo Credit: Philadelphia Union Social Media

The Union return from their Canadian road trip and now head South to Nashville on Tuesday night. Let’s recap this weekend’s historically bad loss and what to expect in Tennessee.

A Canadian Catastrophe

Embarrassing…Abysmal…Pathetic. What other adjective can I use to describe Saturday night’s 7-0 loss to Vancouver? Coach Carnell rotated some of his Starting XI, which included putting Alejandro Bedoya at right back. The Whitecaps exploited the Union captain from the jump, and Philly found themselves down 4 goals by the halftime whistle. I don’t want to place the blame solely on Carnell or Bedoya though. No one played well on Saturday night, and everything that could go wrong did go wrong. If you want to hear more of our reaction, Jose Nunez, Jillian Almoney, and I discussed the game on our post-game show on AAT Sports Network. You can watch our discussion here.

At the end of the day, this is only one loss, and the Union remain in 1st place for the Supporters’ Shield. I would also like to applaud Alejandro for his social media post after the game. Bedoya showed accountability for the loss, and I do believe Carnell’s squad will bounce back after this unusual performance. I've shared Bedoya's post below.

Pre-Match Presser with Bradley Carnell

Jillian Almoney from The One Team We Agree On started the presser by asking Carnell about his third matchup against Nashville. Coach mentioned Nashville's progression over the season and their structure as a club. Specifically, Bradley highlighted the two playmakers (Surridge and Mukhtar), but mentioned the productive supporting staff around the team's big names.

Coach mentioned that the Union are healthy, but they're getting their bodies up to speed through training and recovery. Also, when it comes to Andre Blake, Carnell said that they collectively agreed not to play him in Vancouver. However, there will be a decision on Tuesday morning about whether Blake starts in net.

Regarding the 7-0 defeat, Coach mentions that their performance over the course of the season is their "signature". It's clear that the Union aren't letting an ugly result change their mentality, and they'll be entering Nashville with a clean slate.

If you'd like to watch Carnell's presser, I have it available here.

Nashville Preview

Is third time the charm? The Union have lost to Nashville twice this year: a 3-1 loss on March 16th at Subaru Park, and a 1-0 defeat in Nashville on July 5th. On face value, it would appear that Nashville has the Union’s number, but the context tells a different story.

First, let’s look at the March 16th home loss, which was the 4th game of the Union’s MLS campaign. They started the year 3-0, with victories over Orlando, Cincinnati, and New England prior to hosting Nashville. Despite the Union’s record, they were still figuring things out under Coach Carnell. Additionally, New England has proven to be a mediocre squad, while Cincy was rotated due to CONCACAF scheduling.

Prior to the 7-0 Vancouver defeat, I would argue that the Union’s 3-1 loss against Nashville was their worst performance of the season. It was a very windy day in Chester, and the team looked out of sorts. Specifically, Jakob Glesnes had a noticeably poor outing, Quinn Sullivan missed a penalty kick, and the head official gave a questionable penalty kick to Nashville in the 82nd minute. You could argue that the official missed a Nashville foul earlier in the match as well when Quinn was brought down in the box. Basically, things didn’t bounce the Union’s way that afternoon.

Let’s fast forward to the July 5th match at Geodis Park. The Union were very shorthanded on that day, and we saw starts from Mbaizo, C. Sullivan, and Donovan. Also, Bender, Pierre, Vazquez, Anderson, and Olivas made up a majority of the Union’s bench. On the other side, Nashville had Mukhtar and Sam Surridge, the latter of the two being in good form prior to the game. Despite the unfavorable odds, the Union made this a 0-0 match for just over 90 minutes. Unfortunately, Olwethu Makhanya brought Mukhtar down in the box, and Nashville would earn a 1-0 victory in second half stoppage time. I don’t like the phrase “moral-victory”, but I felt better about the Union’s chances against Nashville after this game. They held their own in a tough environment, and the Union will need that experience on Tuesday.

So, what’s Nashville been up to since July 5th? Well, they’re coming into this game in pretty poor form. The home squad has lost four of their last five matches. A 2-1 defeat against Cincy, a 1-0 loss to Atlanta, a 5-1 victory over Orlando, a 2-1 defeat to NYCFC, and a 3-1 loss to St. Louis. Besides the five-goal match, Nashville has failed to score more than 1 goal in each of their defeats.

Somehow, Nashville has remained in the top of the Eastern Conference standings, and they are 7 points behind the Union in 4th place. They hold a 15W-5D-10L overall record, with a +15 goal differential. They’re particularly strong at Geodis Park with a 10W-3D-2L home record. Nashville has scored 50 goals during their MLS season, with 8 of those coming from the penalty spot, and 1 off an on-goal. The Union have contributed to two of those penalty shots, so Philly will need to be cautious when defending their goal.

Sam Surridge and Hany Mukhtar are still the 1-2 punch for the home side. Sam has 21 goals on the season with 3 assists, while Hany is at 14 goals and 7 assists. The Union were burned early by Surridge in their March defeat, and he has scored 3 goals in their last three matches. Once again, Philly will need to contain Surridge while he’s playing well.

Finally, Nashville entered this past Saturday with a few players on their injury report: Julian Gaines (thigh), Wyatt Meyer (foot), Taylor Washington (knee), Alex Muyl (illness), and Jeisson Palacios (illness). Philly is entering this contest with a healthy roster besides Andre Blake, and the Union’s continuous health will be needed as the playoffs approach. As of now, this will be the last three-game week of the season before the playoffs (unless they make the Open Cup Final).

Betting Notes

It's difficult to predict how a team will respond after getting blown out. It's also difficult to predict how a home side will play after losing 4 of 5. Unfortunately, we have both of those scenarios entering Tuesday night's match. However, we do have an entire MLS season to determine how these clubs will perform.

The Union enter this game as underdogs. Draftkings has their Moneyline (regulation only) at +205, Nashville is +120, and the draw is +235. As Bradley Carnell mentioned in his presser, the Union's "signature" is how they've consistently performed throughout the year. The Union, when fully healthy and available, have been one of the best teams in the league. On Tuesday night, they will have their full roster available, although Blake is still questionable. Yes, Philadelphia just got embarrassed on Saturday night, but Carnell's squad should bounce back to their usual form.

For Nashville, I want to look beyond their previous five matches. The home side beat DC United 5-2 in the US Open Cup quarterfinal on July 9th. Since then, they have only won 3 of 9 matches, with no draws. In the Union's 2022 season, the club went through a long stretch of draws. Jim Curtin mentioned how important it was that Philly was not losing matches, even if the results weren't earning them three points (I'm paraphrasing). This can be applied to Nashville's current form. In their six losses, five of them have been one score games. In four of those five games, Nashville allowed at least one second half goal. Good teams find ways to close out matches and earn points. I know the Union have had their fair share of stoppage time miscues, but it's clear that Nashville is vulnerable in tight matches. I look forward to seeing how Philly reacts if they find themselves down a goal or tied in the second half.

So, let's use that information and look at the books. Philadelphia 1st Half Goal is +100, while their 2nd Half Goal is -135. It's not the even money I was hoping for, but a -135 play on the Union 2nd half score is a solid play based on Nashville's recent losses. Next, despite the frequent defeats, Nashville is finding the back of the net. Both Teams to Score is a pricey, but appropriate, -180. This line was closer to -165 when I began looking into this match on Monday, so we already have movement by Tuesday morning.

Of course, big time players step up in big matches, and the Union have a pair of them. Tai Baribo and Milan Iloski have had strong seasons, and the Union will rely on their clinical finishing on Tuesday evening.

DraftKings was late in posting their Anytime Goal Scorer, so I went to FanDuel. Like I said, Nashville has been finding the back of the net. Surridge at +100 and Mukhtar at +140 are solid plays. For the Union, Baribo is +160, Uhre is +220, Damiani is +280, and Iloski is +290. Damiani had 2 shots on target during the Union’s 1-0 defeat in Nashville, so maybe Bruno finishes the job in the Semifinal.

Lastly, Union to advance is +110 on DraftKings. You know I’ll be playing that!

Final Thought

Rocky Balboa once said, "it ain't about how hard you hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward". The Philadelphia Union were hit on Saturday, but on Tuesday they have a chance to show how tough and well-coached they really are.

We won't be going live after Tuesday's Open Cup match, but we will be recording again after the New England game in Chester. You can follow us and join the post game show on Facebook and Youtube via AAT Sports Network.

Doop!!