Union v Nashville: Match Preview & Betting Notes

I haven't written an article for quite some time, but with nothing to do on a Saturday afternoon, why not get some thoughts down before tonight's match.

The Philadelphia Union end their three-game road stretch at Geodis Park, and they face off against a home side that has been in good form. Also, a Nashville team that left Subaru Park with three points earlier this season.

Two Teams on a Roll

Philadelphia's double-digit unbeaten streak came to an end after a 1-0 loss in Columbus. The Union will now look to end Nashville's own hot streak, as tonight's home squad has gone unbeaten in 13 matches across all competitions. The good form has placed these two teams at the top of the Eastern Conference. The Union sit at first with 40 points, while Nashville is in 3rd place at 38 points. A win today (and some help from Chicago) would put Nashville on top of the East.

Both teams had three matches in June, but Nashville put together better results. They had a 2-0 win in Chicago, a 3-2 win in New England, and a 1-0 win in DC, respectively. The Union started June at home and took care of Charlotte 2-1 with a last-second winner from Markus Anderson. Next, they managed an ugly 1-0 win in Chicago, and then saw their unbeaten streak end against Gazdag in Ohio.

Surging Surridge and Philly Center backs

Tai Baribo (who is listed as questionable this evening) was leading the MLS Golden Boot Race prior to his trip to Israel and calf injury. In his absence, Sam Surridge has taken sole posseson of first. Over the last three matches, Surridge has 5 of the last 6 Nashville goals, with a hat trick in the 3-2 result over New England. It should be mentioned that two of his five goals were from the penalty spot.

The Union's 3-1 loss to Nashville was probably their worst match of the 2025 season, and the center backs were still finding their form. Specifically, Glesnes had a poor outing on March 16th on a very windy day in Chester, PA. Our friend Todd Lewis from The Free Kick shared one of Jakob's mistakes during that home loss.

Things have changed over the last few months, and thankfully for the Union, Makhanya and Glesnes have become very reliable players. Jakob has grown into a clear leader amongst the rotating door of center backs, and he has rightfully earned himself a spot on the MLS All-Star Team. For Makhanya, the South African national has had a breakout season, and his talent was on full display against Columbus when Glesnes was out for yellow-card accumulation. There were not many bright spots in Philly's 1-0 loss, but Olwethu's standout performance was a silver lining to carry into today's match.

Short-handed and Struggling

Earlier in the season, the Union were tested with a slew of games in the month of May. A test that they passed with flying colors. We knew the depth would be challenged again in June with several players away for international duty. Unfortunately, during those absences, Philly has also dealt with a handful of injuries. Carnell has been shuffling his lineup over the last two matches, which has consisted of several MLS Next Pro players. Also, Bradley has been getting creative with how he fills in the lineup. We have seen Alejandro Bedoya and Jeremy Rafanello at right back, and Jovan Lukic took Glesnes' spot at center back against the Crew. Defensively, the Union have done well with these changes, as they have only conceded two goals in their last three matches. Offensively, however, the Union have not looked the same.

Over the last three matches, we have had goals from three players: Jesus Bueno, Markus Anderson (both against Charlotte), and Bruno Damiani (PK for Bruno). That means the Union have not scored outside of a PK in the last two matches, and that is somethiing that I'm concerned with tonight in Nashville.

I think some fans are quick to point fingers at Bruno Damiani for the lack of offense in June. He's a well-paid striker that was expected to make an immediate scoring impact on the squad. I do believe that is a bit unfair, however, for the Urugayan national. Although Tai Baribo has gotten the most attention from fans and MLS, Mikael Uhre has been an unsung hero for this team. In 11 games this season, Mikael has two goals and four assists, the latter of the two being the most important element of Uhre's game this year. Mikael is not only testing the keeper with his shots, but he's finding his fellow forwards in the attack. Take a look at his assists against Miami and LA Galaxy as perfect examples.

Another player whose absence has been felt is Quinn Sullivan. Quinn finally received a call-up to the US National Team, and with the US reaching the CONCACAF Gold Cup Final, Mr. Sullivan will be missing tonight's game in Tennessee. On the year, Quinn has continued to make a name for himself in MLS. Through 15 games, the 21 year-old midfielder has two goals and seven assists.

In Uhre and Baribo's place, we have seen appearances from Donovan, Davis, Anderson, and Sal Olivas. If you ask most fans, they'd agree that Chris Donovan's run as the 4th striker needs to end sooner rather than later. The former Drexel Dragon has not scored yet this season, and although Markus has made a noticeable case to replace Chris, it's clear that Uhre and Tai's skill is being missed up top.

In Quinn's place, Indy Vassilev and Ben Bender have held their own behind the strikers. They are similar players in terms of their engine. I was impressed with Ben's performance and hustle against his former club (Charlotte), while Indy is a player who will run at 100% effort and cause havoc on both ends of the field. From an offensive standpoint, I believe it's still a bit early to fully judge Ben's ability in the final third. For Indy, however, there's been a bit to be desired when he's in the attack. At times, it feels like he holds onto the ball too long, or his leading passes in the final third are lacking compared to what Quinn could offer.

Optimism for tonight?

Maybe I'm fully invested in Bradley, but I don't think the Union are going to get blown out this evening despite their absences and injuries.

First, five very important players should be starting tonight in front of Andre Blake: Kai Wagner, Jakob Glesnes, Olwethu Makhanya, Jovan Lukic, and Danley Jean-Jacques. Even with uncertainty at right back, this startng five has been a consistent strength for Philly throughout the season. Most importantly, Lukic and Danley's pairing in the midfield has been an unexpected bright spot. Both players can push the ball forward and create on the attack (they can score some goals too), but their communicaiton has ensured a stout defensive presence in front of the backline. As I mentioned earlier, the Union (specifically the center backs) had a game to forget the last time Philly played Nashville. I would be shocked if we saw the same performance from either Jakob or Olwethu, but they will have their hands full when dealing with a red-hot Sam Surridge.

Offensively, the Union know that Walker Zimmerman will be absent in front of Willis. However, I do believe Carnell needs to continue to get creative with how he helps out Bruno. We will cross our fingers that Baribo can see some minutes tonight, but we should also hope that Olivier can see the field. If Mbaizo can manage to play a full 90, that leaves Carnell with options of Rafanello, Cavan Sullivan, and Alejandro Bedoya as alternatives to Ben and Indy. I'm not saying I'm expecting either of these three players to set the world on fire tonight, but consideing this offensive slump, it may not hurt to mix things up behind Bruno.

Betting on the Boys in Blue?

When it comes to sports betting, I prefer long-term profitability over short-term success. I'll gladly place a wager on an even money bet, as I know throwing cash at multi-leg parlays will end up losing more often than not. With that said, betting on the Philaelphia Union is a bit tricky right now, as their rotating lineup and injuries leave this team a bit unpredictable.

From an unbias point of view, Nashville Moneyline at -110 seems like a reasonable selection. They're at home, on an unbeaten streak, and have a striker that is in good form. If you're looking to back the Union, however, the draw no bet at +180 is appealing. As I mentioned before, the Union's offense has a bunch of question marks, but their defense is healthy and playing well in front of their keeper. Also, we know that anybody, on any given night, can score for Philly. Even if the forwards aren't threatening the keeper, the midfield has shown they can score, and the Union are always a threat on set pieces when Kai Wagner is sending the ball into the box. I don't know if the Union can find a way to leave Geodis Park with a win, but they've proven to be tough enough on the road to earn a hard-fought draw. For reference, the Union ML is an enticing +270.

As expected, Sam Surridge is practically at even money for the Anytime Goal Scorer (+110). Again, although it's unclear who will step up against Nashville, there is some good value on Bruno Damiani at +245. If Tai Baribo plays, less attention will be on Bruno, and maybe he can find more space to score. Even if Baribo sits, Damiani has been threatening the goal over the last few weeks, and he's finding himself in good positions to score. If you're hoping to get lucky with higher payouts, Cavan is at +650, Danley is at +1100, and Makhanya is at +2800. Note: Olwethu has yet to score this season, but surely he's due, right?

Finally, over the last three matches between Philly and Nashville, we have seen 3 or more goals scored in each of those contests. The total match over sits at a reasonably priced -130 for over 2.5 goals, while Nashville over 1.5 goals is only at -140. Personally, I don't see Nashville scoring more than 2 goals against this Philly defense, but I'm not exactly itching to bet that the Union can score more than two goals tonight. The total goals under at 2.5 (+100) isn't exactly a bad bet if you ask me, but I'll likely stay away as I could see this being a 2-1 Nashville win.

Final Thought

My final thought is simple. Carnell has proven to me that he can put out a competitive lineup each game, despite injuries and absences. I'd even say that Philly was the better of the two squads against Columbus, but the lack of offense was evident in the 1-0 defeat to the Crew. With that said, let's try to steal a point tonight on the road, get healthy and bring in our reinforcements, and get ready for two difficult matches against New York Red Bulls.

I do believe that the Union can make a push for MLS Cup with a healthy roster, but we can't ignore that a US Open Cup victory is within our grasp. I wouldn't be surprised to see Carnell make some extra rotations tonight with the Quarterfinal game only four days away. As much as I want to steal three points in Nashville, I know that, as of now, a successful run through Open Cup should be high on the Union's priority list.

After the match, check out our Union Post Game Show on AAT Sports Network! We'll be going live about 15 minutes after the final whistle. DOOP!