Union v Montreal: Match Preview and Betting Notes

Photo: July 12, 2025 - Union v Red Bulls

The Union put together an impressive 90 minutes on Saturday night, and with a little help around the league, they found themselves back in first place! I know this is a Montreal Preview, but let's quickly discuss Philly extending their unbeaten streak over New York to 15 games.

Dominating Doops

The phrase "complete game" isn't something I throw around often, but I think it is justified after Saturday's performance. The Union, revitalized with Tai Baribo, Quinn Sullivan, and Nathan Harriel in their lineup, were fantastic against the Red Bulls. In the first few minutes, Sofo's speed gave me concern when he was sprinting past Kai Wagner, but the defense adjusted to keep New York off the board. The North Jersey club had 8 total shots by the end of the match, with only 1 shot on target (that came in the 2nd half). The centerback pair of Jakob Glesnes and Olwethu Makhanya continued to shine for Philadelphia, and Makhanya in particular stood out for me. Jose Nunez shared a key moment in the match that highlights Makhanya's instincts and ability. He tracks the ball through the box and is quick enough to keep Blake out of trouble. The fans were upset with Curtin about Tai's lack of playing time, but the more Makhanya plays, the more I question how he couldn't see the pitch at all last season. Makhanya almost scored too before Indy's tap-in, and I'd love to see the offensive side of his game grow over the next few months.

I won't say much about Quinn and Bruno, as the lead up and finish for the Union's second goal speaks for itself. Sullivan's left-footed one-timer is a perfect example into why he was called up for the U.S. Men's National Team. It also appeared that Quinn might have been dealing with a slight knock, but he put together a fine performance for Philly. For Damiani, I'm sure he let out a giant sigh of relief after his fantastic finish. Bruno should continue to benefit from the return of Quinn, Tai, and Uhre, and we hope the floodgates will open after Saturday's goal.

Carnell Press Conference

Bradley spoke with the media on Tuesday afternoon. When asked about the injury update, Bradley said, "Everyone's just about ready to go bar Ian", but he did mention there may be a few game time decisions tomorrow evening.

Montreal has been in slightly better form of late, and Carnell made sure to address some players on the visiting club. Specifically, he highlighted Montreal's striker, Prince Owusu, "Owusu has been dangerous in all phases of the game, in transition he can run behind, from crosses he's lethal". This is another match where the Union defense will be preparing for a dangerous striker. They managed to keep Choupo-Moting and Sam Surridge off the board, and they will now look to do the same against Prince, who has 9 goals and 2 assists on the season.

Coach also discussed the Union's dominant performance against New York. He gave a very professional and detailed answer, but the overall mood of his statement is humility. He's content with the results, but he mentioned that the Union are striving to be "the hunters, not the hunted".

As a fan, I love to hear that humble and hungry mentality from Coach Carnell. Last season, the Union felt stale, and it often seemed like the players were going through the motions. It's clear that the players have bought into Carnell's approach this season, and I continue to be impressed with how Bradley handles this squad.

If you'd like to watch the full presser, I've provided the link here.

Montreal Preview.

The Union entered a difficult May on a high. After a 1-0 defeat in New York, the Union handled Atlanta United and D.C. United 3-0 in each match. They started their month in Montreal, and this would be the first of three games in a week for Philly (Indy Eleven on May 7 & the Crew on May 10). Indy Vassilev kicked off the scoring in the 2nd minute after an incredible run by Danley (and nice touch by Dono). Uhre would then put the Union on top 2-1 in the 84th. I shared The Free Kick's post of Indy's score, which will likely be a Top 5 goal for me this season.

Montreal and Philadelphia currently sit on opposite ends of the Eastern Conference table. The Canadian club is in 15th place, has 15 points, and has a -22 goal differential. Montreal isn't the worst team on the road though (I say that nicely). They've earned 9 of their 15 points away from their home stadium and hold a 2W-3D-7L record when travelling. They also have a -8 goal differential on the road. Next, 68% of their goals this year have come from open play, with 4 goals off set pieces, and 2 PKs. I have a ton of confidence in Philly on set pieces (both on offense and defense), and I expect Union's defense to stifle any open play attack from the visitors. Lastly, Montreal will be missing a key contributor to their lineup. As reported by Tom Bogert on 7/13, West Brom is finalizing a deal for George Campbell.

Head-to-Head, this hasn't always been the easiest matchup for Philly. Yes, they won 2-1 earlier this year, but I'd say we squeaked away with that W in May. Philly faced Montreal 3 times last season: a 2-0 win in Leagues Cup, a 4-2 loss in Montreal, and a 2-2 draw at home. I believe fans would have been OK with a road draw back in May, especially with an Open Cup and Crew match later that week. However, things are different this time around. Wednesday's match screams "Trap Game", so Philly cannot take their foot off the gas. A 2-0 victory over NYRB feels great, but we did just lose two matches in a row before that, and then have to travel to Houston on Saturday.

Betting Notes and Prediction.

Don't get it twisted, I fully believe that Philadelphia will handle their business on Wednesday night, and the sportsbooks would agree with me there. I imagine Carnell could have some rotation with Saturday's road trip only a few days away, but this lineup (in whatever variation we see) is the better side.

Draftkings lists the Union moneyline (regular time) at -250, with Montreal boasting a +550 ML. The match goal total of over 2.5 is -170, and Both Teams to Score is -135 ("No" is at +105, which is enticing to me after the Union shut out New York). With the Union set as clear and expensive favorites, I'll look to a two-leg parlay to help bring down the price. Union Moneyline (-250) and Total Match Goals over 2.5 (-170) is -105. If you believe the match total will be under 2.5, then switching this play to Union ML + Total Match Goals over 1.5 (-550) is -170.

Considering the cost of these lines, I took a look at player props, and Jovan Lukic at -125 for 3+ tackles caught my attention. In their last match against Montreal, Lukic was the highest rated player on FotMob (8.5), and he won 3 of 4 tackles. I looked at Jovan's last few matches to see his recent tackle total, and it's not exactly giving me confidence to back Lukic in this spot. He had 1 vs NYRB, 1 tackle vs Nashville, 2 against Columbus, 3 vs Chicago, and 1 against Charlotte. If you have faith in Jovan at home, and against a weaker opponent, go for it. -125 isn't too pricey, but just be mindful of his recent outings. It also seems that the books are focusing too much on the first matchup between Philly and Montreal.

I'm also excited to see how this offense builds off the Red Bulls win, so I took a peek at Player Assists. Quinn Sullivan 1+ assist is at +330, while Kai Wagner 1+ is at +270. The Union had 6 corner kicks the last time we played Montreal, so I'd love to see someone get on the end of a Kai corner. Lastly, here's a few Union Anytime Goal Scorers: Baribo -125, Damiani +145, Quinn +295, Danley +650, and Makhanya +1700. Considering how Makhanya looked on set pieces this past Saturday, I'm probably taking a chance on him scoring. Also, if Damiani continues to play well, then you should expect his ATG numbers to become more expensive soon.

Overall, betting on a team that is so heavily favored will give you expensive options, so I encourage you to browse player props like I did. Those will usually be more reasonably priced, even with the lopsided matchup.

Final Thought

Wednesday feels like a trap game, but this should be a dominant victory for Philadelphia. My goal for this week: Continue to build off Saturday's performance, rotate the players as needed to stay healthy, and get yourself to Houston. Personally, I'd like to use the next month to build momentum. The Open Cup quarterfinal is less than 30 days away, and it would be great to see the Union rolling into that match on a hot streak.

Don't forget to check out our Across the Pitch Post Game Show on AAT Sports Network after Wednesday's match. Doop!