Union v Houston: Match Preview & Betting Notes

Photo: Philadelphia Union Social Media - Indy Vassilev on July 16, 2025 v Montreal

The Union took care of business at home this week, and they leave Subaru Park with two consecutive wins, six points, and a seat at the top of the MLS Table. Now, on short rest, the Boys in Blue travel to Houston.

A Win is a Win

We talked about the dominating performance againt New York, but we can't say the same for Wednesday night. The Union struggled to keep Andre Blake out of trouble, and I'd say they were fortunate to not draw or lose that match. Even with Prince Owusu's best attempts to steal points, the Union did enough to take care of the worst team in the East. Danley Jean-Jacques showed off his dynamic ability in the lead up for Tai's goal, and Olwethu Makhanya notched his first MLS goal when he scored off Kai's corner kick. Kudos to Bradley's team on Wednesday. They didn't fall for the "Trap Game" and did what good teams do: find a way to win.

Bradley's Press Conference

Coach Carnell spoke to the media on Thursday afternoon. He briefly discussed the Montreal game, and praised how competitive Montreal has been over the last few matches.

Regarding Cavan Sullivan, Carnell mentioned that he's meeting the Union's internal expectiations, and Coach spoke highly of how the teenager has done in longer appearances.

If Union fans were tired of weather interrupting our matches, then they might not want to look at Saturday's forecast. A tropical storm was anticipated this week, but click2houston.com mentions it may just be some rain Thursday into Friday. We'll be crossing our fingers for Saturday's forecast, and Carnell mentioned that the club will head to Houston and hope for suitable weather.

Lastly, when asked about rotation, Carnell reemphasized how the players have embraced their provided opportunities and the team's approach. Bradley mentioned, "through the collective effort, we are strong". I'm curious to see who ends up in the Starting XI on Saturday, especially with Carnell keeping an eye on yellow card accumulation and recovery time.

If you'd like to rewatch the press conference, i've provided the link here.

Houston Preview

The Blue and Gold travel West to Houston and take on the Dynamo at 8:30pm on Saturday night. It's been a while since we played Houston, but for those who remember their last fixture, it was a 6-0 Philly win at Subaru Park. The goal scorers that night were Gazdag, McGlynn, Uhre (x2), Julian, and Quinn. That 2022 season was a lot of fun, but what I miss the most is how lethal that offense was when they were firing on all cylinders.

Before that match, the Union had a 2-1 win over Houston in 2019, the disappointing 3-0 loss in the 2018 Open Cup Final, and a 3-1 road victory over the Dynamo earlier in 2018. In that away victory, Alejandro Bedoya scored in the 33rd, so we'll see if the Captain can find the back of the net again on Saturday.

Houston hasn't had the best season, and it looks like they'll be fighting for a playoff spot for the remainder of the year. They currently sit in 11th place with 26 points, have scored 29 goals on the year, and have a -9 goal differential. Specifically, they have a -8 goal differential at home, with a 4W-1D-7L record in their home arena. Also, of their 29 goals, 8 of those have been off set pieces.

The Dynamo enter Saturday's match in a bit of a rut. They do have a 2W-3L record over their last five matches, which includes an impressive 4-3 victory over MLS newcomers, and Western Conference leaders, San Diego FC. In that match, San Diego held a 3-2 lead until Ponce scored a penalty kick in the 87th, and then the game winner in the 10th minute of stoppage time. If you'd like to check out the highlights from that shootout, including 17 minutes of stoppage time, I've added the link here.

Despite the 2W-3L record, and 6 goals in their last five matches, those stats are a bit misleading. 4 of those 6 goals were against San Diego, and they only scored one against St. Louis and Minnesota. More importantly, after those four goals against San Diego, the Dynamo have not scored in their last two matches (3-0 loss to Vancouver and 1-0 loss to RSL). For the visiting Union, they overcame their scoring drought and have scored 4 goals in their last two outings. What I love most about those four goals is that a different player has scored each time. Indy Vassilev and Makhanya have scored on corner kicks, whiile Tai and Bruno have scored in open play.

Finally, we can't preview Houston without discussing former Union midfielder, Jack McGlynn. One of Tanner's most controversial moves was sending McGlynn to Houston. Jack, a fan favorite, was expected to be an important part of the Union in the post-Curtin era. Instead, on February 3, 2025, the Union announced the trade with the Dynamo. In that deal, the Union received $2.1 million, along with future trade and sell-on percentage. Philly is also able to receive $1.3 million if performance metrics are reached. At the time, several fans were upset with the Union's continued selling of their better players (Ex: Jose Martinez and Julian Carranza). However, as the season has progressed, and considering Carnell's pressing system, this looks to be a good move from Ernst. Speaking of former players, we will also be seeing Aurelien Collin on Saturday, who is an assistant coach for the Dynamo.

Things have gone well for Mr. McGlynn in Texas. He has started all 18 matches he's played in and notched 2 goals and 3 assists in MLS. Jack, alongside other Union Academy products, was also called up to the U.S. Men's National Team for the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Jack made a name for himself this Summer with two long distance goals, which has become a staple of his with that excellent left foot. McGlynn has been unafraid to shoot from outside the box in MLS too. He has 36 shots on the season, and as you can see from the FotMob graphic, almost all have come from outside the box. 33 of his shots have come from his left foot, so the Union will be sure to keep the ball on his right as much as possible. After following the Union for several years, I know that Jack will absolutely try to beat Blake from long distance if he gets the chance.

Betting Notes

If you tailed any of my picks/suggestions from the Montreal game, then you probably made out pretty well. Union Moneyline + over 2.5 total goals (2-leg parlay) and Makhanya Anytime Goal both hit, as well as Player Assists for Quinn and Kai. I also highlighted the unusual line for Lukic tackles at 3+ considering his recent form, and he did in fact miss that target with only 1 tackle. Thankfully, I stayed away from that play.

For Saturday, the Union are heading to Houston as road underdogs. Draftkings has the Moneyline (regular time) as: Houston +135, draw +230, and Union +185. This will be the third game in a week for Philly, and as I mentioned above, Carnell may throw in some rotation. With that in mind, I will probably take Union +110 Draw No Bet. I'll double my money if Philly wins, but I'll walk away with my money if we get a road draw.

Another number that jumped out to me was Team Total Goals for Philly. If you recall my earlier stat, the Houston Dynamo have a -8 goal differential at home. The Union are entering Texas in good scoring form, and over 1.5 Union goals is +120. Houston just gave up 3 goals to Vancouver, and have given up at least 1 goal in 4 of their last 5 matches. The Match Total Over is -130 for 2.5, but considering Houston's recent scoring drought, I'm not exactly itching to back them scoring more than once (or at all). If you're looking for an enticing Union 2-leg parlay: Union Moneyline + Over 1.5 total match goals is +232.

The Anytime Goalscorer options are available on DraftKings. Tai Baribo is at +155, Bruno Damiani is at +255, and Mikael Uhre is +255. It's unclear who will get the start on Saturday night with a potentially tired squad, but if Uhre gets the start, I might put a flier on his ATG. He was only inches from scoring on Wednesday, and it looks like Mikael is coming back from injury with an eye for goal. Other Union Players ATG: Cavan +475, Quinn +500, Bedoya +600, Danley +1000, Frankie +1800, and Makhanya +2500. Nathan Harriel did start against New York and Montreal, so with Frankie as a possible starter Saturday, I would keep an eye on his ATG or Player Assist numbers.

Lastly, you know I needed to take a look at McGlynn's numbers. Jack's Anytime GoalScorer is +425, 1+ Assist is +320, and 1+ Shot on Target is -120. Like I said before, McGlynn is a killer with his left foot. I would be shocked if he doesn't get at least one shot on Blake.

Note: These numbers were all pulled on Thursday afternoon, so be mindful of line movement before Saturday's match.

Final Thought

The Union have proven to us throughout the season that they can compete on the road, even with a rotated squad, or on short rest. We have also walked away with points in places that we've struggled at in the past (Ex: Toronto, Chicago, and Montreal). Philly currently has 46 points, with 19 of those away from Subaru Park (a 6W-1D-4L record). Additionally, of their 39 goals on the year, 14 of those have been on set pieces (2 from PK). Even if this is a tough match against Houston, I believe this squad will find a way to score and leave with at least a point.

For those of you who watch our Union Post Game Show on AAT Sports Network, I will be on the road at a Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs game, so there will be NO show this weekend. However, we'll be back on the air after the Colorado match on the 26th. Doop!