Union v DC United: Match & Betting Notes

Photo Cred: Philadelphia Union Social Media

Back in the Win Column

The Union suffered through two tough losses against Nashville and Vancouver, but found a way to get back on track against New England. The Revs, under a new coach and fighting for their playoff lives, gave Philly a tough match. However, it was Bruno Damiani's second half goal that earned the Union a 1-0 victory at Subaru Park.

Bradley preached resiliency and a clear mindset after the unfortunate defeats last week. Also, with Saturday's game being the third contest in a week, the players stepped up to seal the deal at home. Moving forward, the Union will have sufficient rest between each match, and I would expect stronger performances to close out the season. Even with Frankie Westfield missing time for international duty, the Union are deep enough and skilled enough to earn the Supporters' Shield.

Bradley Carnell Pre-Match Presser

Coach began his Pre-Match press conference by saying that the clean sheet against New England was "really important". He emphasized how the team's confidence was boosted after securing the win and the shut out.

When asked about the Shield race and upcoming schedule, Coach said the team needs to "keep true to who they are". Additionally, Bradley mentioned that this squad has a chance to achieve something special, but that they still have work to do. He used the words "focused, concentrated, and confident" with the team's approach right now.

Regarding DC, Carnell praised Rene Weiler's time so far with the club, and he highlighted their recent results in the last 5 games. Even though DC United is out of the playoff picture, he again remphasized what he said before New England. Each team has talent, quality, and DP 10s or 9s. He also highlighted Benteke's skillset in the attack.

Finally, with Tai Baribo absent due to yellowcard suspension, Carnell did not tip his hand on who would be the next striker up. It seems that players like Sal Olivas or Markus Anderson could be viable options to fill in for Baribo's spot. Additionally, Bradley mentioned that Olivier had been dealing with a stomach bug, but he's healthy now and had a good week of training.

If you'd like to watch all of Bradley's pre-match presser, I've added it here.

DC United Preview

As Coach mentioned, DC United has been able to earn points in their recent games, and the Union should be prepared for a team that will put up a fight. They are 1W-3D-1L over the last five games with a 3-2 loss to Miami, 1-1 draw to Orlando, 2-1 win against NYCFC, 1-1 draw to Miami, and a 1-1 tie against Montreal. Orlando, Miami, and NYC are all fighting for a top spot in the Eastern Conference Standings, so it's not like DC has been feeding on the bottom of the table.

DC announced in July that Rene Weiler would become their next head coach. He has 24 years of coaching experience and has earned league titles in Belgium, Switzerland, and Egypt. DC United posted a full bio on Rene back in July (you can view it here), and it's clear that Weiler will bring a winning culture to the nation's capital.

Of course, Christian Benteke is the man to watch for DC, and we've seen Glesnes and Benteke go at it for a few years now. Christian has 9 goals and 3 assists on the year, while Gabriel PIrani and Peglow have a combined 15 goal contributions on the season. Carnell is correct when discussing even the worst teams in MLS. They still have playmakers at multiple positions, and the Union shouldn't take the DC attack lightly.

The 2025 season hasn't gone well for DC. They currently sit in 14th place above Montreal, and they have only earned 25 points on the season with a -29 goal differential. They struggle to earn wins at their home arena too with a 2W-7D-6L record in DC. Offensively, DC hasn't been blowing people out of the water. They only have 29 goals on the season, with 6 of them coming from set pieces. Christian Benteke will be the man to watch on set pieces as well. The 6'3" striker has the size to go above Glesnes and Makhanya, and they cannot afford to fall asleep when he's soaring for a header.

Thankfully, both teams enter this match at mostly full strength. Kristian Fletcher is out with a knee injury, while David Schnegg is questionable with a thigh injury. The Union are entering Saturday healthy, but they will be missing Frankie for international duty, and Tai Baribo on yellow card suspension. Brandon Servania and Frankie Westfield are the only players on the yellow card accumulation warning list, so the Union will not have to worry about losing anyone next week if one yellow is earned.

Finally, the Union will be entering this match at the top of the Eastern Conference and Supporters' Shield Standings. They hold a 2 point lead over Cincy, and a 5 point lead over Miami in the East. Messi and friends have two games in hand, so a Union victory today is crucial. Cincinnati is also 2nd in the Supporters' Shield standings, while San Diego and Vancouver sit at 57 and 56 points, respectively. Vancouver has 1 game in hand over the Union.

Betting Notes

The Union enter this game as road favorites. Draftkings has their moneyline at -115, while the draw is +270, and the DC ML is +270. Considering DC's recent form, a draw is intriguing, and even DC's Tie No Bet at +195 is enticing. Rene has this club playing hard, and a draw isn't unreasonable if you're looking to fade the Union tonight.

As I mentioned above, DC United hasn't been lethal on offense, but they have been scoring of late. Both Teams to Score is -165, while "No" is +130. The Union are a strong defensive side, but they dodged a couple of bullets against New England, even when up a man. I would avoid taking the "No" for this match, and you can pair the BTTS with a prop if -165 is too juicy for you.

I typically don't like to play anything above -140, but the Union Total Team Goals at -155 is something I might play. Even without Tai Baribo, the Union have enough fire power behind Bruno Damiani and Mikael Uhre. Also, with a full week of rest, I expect Milan and Quinn to be starting as the attacking midfielders. I have loved that pairing so far for the Union's attack, and 2 goals against DC should be more than doable for the Union. Shop around your sportsbooks for this line, as I do believe over 1.5 is a good play against a team that has conceded 58 goals. Also, Union over 1.5 team goals and Union Moneyline is +108 if you do a 2-leg parlay.

For anytime goalscorers, I'm focusing on the forwards. Mikael Uhre should be seeing a start in place of Tai Baribo, and more minutes should mean more chances. Mikael is sitting at +160 on Draftkings, while Bruno is +145. Bruno has scored two impressive goals against Cincy and New England, and I may want to ride the hot hand for Philly before the price continues to go up. Iloski is also at +160, while Q. Sullivan is +400.

Like I said, DC has conceded nearly 60 goals this year, and the Union have been lethal on set pieces all season. It might be worth taking a small chance on either center back to score today. Glesnes is +1500 to score, while Makhanya is +2000. This feels like a "get right" game for the Union's offense, and a set piece header from one of their center backs is doable. Lastly, Kai 1+ Assist is +320, Quinn 1+ Assist is +390, and Iloski 1+ Assist is +700. Iloski will likely be in the attacking mid position again, and I could certainly see him feeding a pass to Bruno or Mikael for a goal. He did earn the assist against the Revs too on Bruno's goal.

Final Thought

This can be viewed as a trap game, or a get right game. For me, I have to look at the Union's entire season for context. They have consistently been a good squad, and I'll chalk up last week's issues to travel, short rest, and possible illness as Carnell mentioned. They are rested and ready to make a final push for the Shield. I expect to see Philly in elite form tonight, and a poor performance would simply be unacceptable.

After the match, join our post game show on AAT Sports Network. You can comment on Facebook and Youtube and share your thoughts on tonight's match. We'll be live about 10 minutes after the final whistle. Doop!