Union v Cincinnati: Match Preview and Betting Notes

The Union enter a pivotal part of their MLS season, so let’s dive into a highly anticipated match against FC Cincinnati.

Putting Out the Fire

If you read my Union v Chicago Preview, then you saw my concern prior to the match. Yes, I believed that the Union were the better team, but there were legitimate reasons for concern. First, the Union had dropped points at home against Toronto, and then lost in Harrison after Damiani missed a PK. Second, Chicago was coming into Subaru Park in solid form. They are a high-scoring team that has been tough on the road, and with playoff seeding on the line, they had everything to play for. Well, the Union silenced many doubters in 90 minutes. Philadelphia beat Chicago 4-0, with goals from Tai, Kai, Danley, and Milan. Iloski in particular was fantastic, and he showed creativity and dribbling ability that reminded me of Ilsinho. Iloski ended the night with a goal, an assist, and 4 shots on target.

I know Milan has only played a handful of games, but it’s hard not to get excited about his impact for the club. It was obvious during Quinn’s USMNT absence that Philly needed another attacking midfielder, and Tanner absolutely nailed this move. Milan is unafraid to challenge defenders, and he has been a great compliment to Quinn behind the forwards. The Union were already in good position to earn some silverware this season, and I truly believe Iloski can be the final piece that gets us there.

Keeper Depth

Pierce Holbrook was called up to the first team in the Union’s last match. Unfortunately, Pierce injured himself during warmups and was carried off the field before the start of the match. The Union, now without three of their keepers, quickly added to the roster. Ernst Tanner signed George Marks through the end of the 2025 season. Per the Union, “Marks, 25, was selected 57th overall in the 2022 MLS SuperDraft by Charlotte FC and officially signed with the club on February 22, 2022. He made his MLS debut on June 26, 2022, starting against CF Montréal. Over three seasons with Charlotte FC, Marks made eight MLS appearances, recording 31 saves and two clean sheets. He also featured in two U.S. Open Cup matches and nine matches for Crown Legacy FC, Charlotte’s MLS NEXT Pro affiliate”.

Rick is of course the starter during Blake’s absence, but it’s nice to see an MLS experienced player brought into the mix. Mike Sheridan seems to be a Union II keeper at best (for now), so I’m glad Tanner brought in a more reliable backup. We’ll see if Marks also gets any time with Union II.

Bradley Carnell Press Conference

Coach spoke with the media on Thursday afternoon. He mentioned that Indy Vassilev is questionable (concussion) and Andre Blake is following the appropriate protocols to return to action. As of now, there is still no timeline for Andre’s return, and he is of course out (hamstring) for Saturday.

Speaking of injuries, I checked the MLS injury report and Cincy has 4 players listed as out: Yuya Kubo (leg), Obinna Nwobodo (quad), Miles Robinson (leg), and Paul Walters (foot). Additionally, the MLS disciplinary report lists Lukic and Makhanya on caution accumulation warning.

Coach was asked about George Marks and how he’s fit in with the squad. Bradley complimented George’s character and mentioned how he appeared to be a good fit for the locker room. Hopefully, we will not have to see Marks this season, but it seems that Tanner has found another player to fit this Union culture.

Lastly, Coach was asked (in a couple of ways) about the importance of this upcoming match. Carnell praised his team’s resilience and success so far this season, and mentioned that the club “embraces the emotion”. It certainly seems that Coach is keeping his team level-headed and mentally prepared for the final stretch of the season.

Cincy Preview

In recent years, the Union v FC Cincinnati felt like must-watch soccer. Curtin v Noonan was always the main headline, and we’ve seen some great matches between these two clubs. Although the coach connection isn’t there in 2025, the stakes are still just as high. As of today, the Union (54 points) are two points ahead of Cincy in the Eastern Conference standings. They are also one point ahead of San Diego for the Supporters’ Sheild with 6 games to go. Although a first place finish and a Shield aren’t the ultimate goals, these next 6 matches will certainly feel like playoff games. The Union have a chance at a trophy, and it’s time for the Boys in Blue to finish the job.

The Union played FC Cincinnati several months ago at the start of the season. On March 1st, Philly handed Cincy a 4-1 loss in Chester, PA, and we had goals from Tai Baribo (hat trick) and Bruno Damiani. Of course, Daniel Gazdag won’t be in the lineup today for Philly, but I expect Milan Iloski to continue his role in the midfield. Despite the blowout loss, we have to take a very important fact into consideration. FC Cincinnati was in the middle of a CONCACAF Champions Cup run, and their March 1st loss was sandwiched in between two CCC games. I know Cincy will be without a handful of key contributors today, but I would be surprised if the Union had the same type of rout tonight.

Although Noonan’s squad is 2nd in the East, they’ve struggled in their last 5 matches (including Leagues Cup). In MLS, they’ve lost 2 of their last 3 matches, with their lone win being a 3-2 victory in Portland. Cincy lost to both Charlotte and NYCFC by a score of 1-0. What might be the most concerning thing for Cincy fans is that both of those losses came at home. Noonan’s squad is 7W-2D-4L at TQL stadium, and although that isn’t the worst record, recent home defeats while pushing for a Supporters’ Shield is worrisome.

Cincinnati isn’t too far behind Philly with 42 goals on the season, and a big reason for that is Evander Ferreira. The Brazilian has 16 goals and 8 assists for Cincy this season, and he also scored against Philly in their March meeting. Besides Evander, Kevin Denkey is another threat for Philly to worry about. He has 13 goals and 1 assist in 24 matches, with his last goal coming in the 3-2 victory in Portland.

The Union have just silenced one of the top offenses in the league, which included a dangerous Zinckernagel for the Fire. The Philly back line will again have to stifle a dangerous offense and a playmaker in Evander that’s been having a great season thus far.

Betting Notes

The Union are road favorites entering tonight’s match. On DraftKings, the Philly ML is +135, while Cincy sits at +160. The draw is +255.

I do like the draw option here. These are two teams that have played in several tough matches over the years, and the 4-1 Philly victory in March seems to be more of a one-off. However, the Union and FCC haven’t tied a match since 2023, and I don’t believe that streak will end tonight. If you are taking a chance on the Union, the Tie No Bet at -125 is a reasonable and affordable play.

Next, I looked at the Union’s Total Team goals. Yes, we did just score 4 against Chicago, but Cincy has kept things close in their recent 1-0 defeats at home. The Union over 1.5 goals is -125. Again, I have faith in Carnell’s side to score 2 or more, but I’m not rushing to back a high scoring affair in TQL.

The Anytime Goal Scorer odds are favorable if you’re backing a Union scorer: Baribo is +130, Iloski is +225, Damiani is +255, and Uhre is +255. Mikael started against FCC in their last match, but Carnell has gone with Bruno as his starter over the last few matches. I would wait for the lineups to come out if you wanted to back Mikael.

The Union had 23 shots against Chicago, with 8 of them being on target. I was browsing the player shots on target prop and noticed Danley Jean Jacques 1+ shot on target is +185. DJJ has 1 shot on target in 4 of the last 5 Union matches (not including the friendly), and the one game he didn’t get a shot on target was the Union’s loss to NYRB. Danley did not start that match and came on in the second half. Danley has shown his offensive ability throughout the season, and he’s been testing the keeper of late. I think it’s worth taking a chance on this prop considering those recent numbers.

Final Thought

I’ve said this a lot over the last few weeks. The Union are in great position to win the Supporters’ Shield and more. A win over Cincinnati would be an excellent step toward accomplishing that goal, and I fully expect a prepared and focused squad tonight.

AAT Sports Network will be going live for our Union post game show tonight. We’ll be on the air 15 minutes after the final whistle. Please join the comments on Facebook and YouTube to chat about tonight’s game. Doop!