Union v Charlotte FC: Match Preview & Betting Notes

Photo Credit: Philadelphia Union Social Media

The Philadelphia Union are the 2025 Supporters’ Shield Champions, but the job is far from over. The Union return to action on Saturday night in North Carolina, and they’ll look to end their regular season on a high note. Let’s dive into our preview!

Lifting a Trophy

I’ll be the first to admit that I was wrong about the Union. Prior to the season, I predicted that the Union could finish below the playoff line. This was on the heels of Jack McGlynn’s departure, along with uncertainty in Tanner’s additions, Makhanya and Westfield’s development, Blake’s health, and Carnell’s ability. Honestly, I have never been happier to be wrong.

Coach Carnell convinced this team to buy-in from Day 1, and we were lucky enough to watch one of the best squads in Union history. From the Lukic and Danley pairing, to the growth of Olwethu and Frankie, these players rose to the occasion each and every week. Even when they had bumps in the road, the Union never felt like a group who couldn’t bounce back from adversity. I’ll stop myself from rambling about the Union’s 2025 campaign, but I will say how excited I am for what Carnell and Tanner have built this season.

Pre-Match Press Conference

Philly enters this week in a unique situation. To start, they are locked in for the first seed in the Eastern Conference, so a loss or draw doesn’t impact their playoff position. On the other hand, some minutes and a strong outing can be positive before we enter the first round. Coach Carnell was asked about the approach and mindset entering this game. Bradley responded by saying, “Every game we put all our eggs into that basket, right. That’s a way I feel we go into this game. It’s another chance to end the regular season on a historical note for this club, and I think everyone’s hungry for that.”

As a fan, I love that answer from Coach. It’s easy to get lost in the moment, and it’s easy to take your foot off the gas when you’ve accomplished something significant. Carnell has preached focus throughout the season, and I’m not surprised to hear that type of response from him now.

Regarding injuries, Rafanello is “working his way back” from injury, and Bradley mentioned that Quinn has been in the building as he begins his recovery. Carnell praised Sullivan’s energy and presence at this time. On the international players, Danley has returned in “good health”, as did Tai Baribo. Also, Carnell praised Westfield for his performance in the U-20 World Cup.

Lastly, Frankie, Quinn, and Olwethu were selected for the 22 Under 22 MLS list this season, which ranks the league’s top young talent. Kyle Almoney of The One Team We Agree On asked Carnell about his three players earning that honor. In summary, Coach showed a sense of pride in his three players, but also voiced that this is the expectation for the Union and their ability to develop talent.

If you’d like to watch all of Bradley’s presser, which included his thoughts on Charlotte and the Union’s depth, I’ve included the link here.

Charlotte Preview

Let’s start with the injury and disciplinary summary. Neither club will be missing players for suspension, although Eryk Williamson, Wilfried Zaha, Jakob Glesnes, and Frankie Westfield enter this match on yellow card accumulation warning. From an injury standpoint, MLS Player Availability report shows that Pep Biel (knee) is out, while Nikola Petkovic (thigh) is questionable. For Philly, Quinn Sullivan is out with his torn ACL, and Rafanello (hamstring) is also listed as out for Saturday's game.

The Union and Charlotte will be facing each other for the second time this season, with their last match being June 14th. As you may recall, the Union had a heavily rotated squad that evening in Chester, as Rick, Mbaizo, Bedoya, Bueno, and Bender earned starts for Philly. Also, Vassilev saw time next to Bruno Damiani. The bench was also rotated with Westfield, Donovan, Anderson, Rafanello, C. Sullivan, LeFlore, Pierre, Davis, and Semmle as Carnell’s options. Despite the makeshift lineup, the Philadelphia Union earned a hard fought three points at Subaru Park. We also saw a spectacular goal by Bueno in first half stoppage time, and then a game-winner by Markus Anderson in the dying seconds of the game. Of course, the Union’s depth will be deeper than what we saw in June, but this was an early glimpse of how resilient Carnell’s team could be. Even after conceding a goal in the 78th minute, Philly continued to put pressure on Charlotte to walk away with three points.

Let’s talk about Charlotte now. Saturday’s home squad is currently in 4th place with 56 points, but they aren’t locked into that position just yet. NYC is in 5th place with 56 points, Nashville is in 6th with 54 points, and Orlando is in 7th place with 53 points. A draw or loss at home could bump Charlotte down the table, and in turn lose their home field advantage in the best of three first round.

In terms of form, Charlotte enters this match having won 3 of their last 5 games, but having lost 2 of their last 3 matches. These results include a 1-0 win over DC, a 4-1 loss to Montreal, a 2-0 loss to NYC, a 3-0 victory over Miami, and a 2-1 W against the Revs. The DC and Montreal results are particularly eye-opening. DC United earned red cards in the 21st and 30th minute, but despite the clear advantage, Charlotte was only able to find the back of the net in the 33rd minute when Zaha scored. Remember, the Union just embarrassed DC in their home arena, so Charlotte’s inability to win by more goals is alarming. Against Montreal, Zaha gave Charlotte an early lead in the 10th minute, but a 20th minute red card to Malanda gave Montreal the advantage, which turned into 4 unanswered goals. Even with a man advantage, Montreal has been a bottom-tier squad for most of the season, and that result is a tough one to swallow for Charlotte fans.

Offensively, Charlotte has three players that can find the back of the net. Idan Toklomati, Pep Biel, and Wilfried Zaha have a combined 30 goals between the three of them, with Biel including 11 assists, and Zaha having 5 assists. Toklomati has recently been finding the goal too. He scored against New England on August 30th, and then had a hat trick against Miami. As mentioned above, Zaha has scored in consecutive games, and he was the lone scorer for the home team when they visited Chester back in June. Lastly, Biel's absence is a significant one considering how well he's passed the ball this year.

Again, Charlotte has a chance to secure the 4th spot in the Eastern Conference, as well as home field advantage in the best of three. Based on their home record, that would be crucial for them entering the playoffs. Charlotte is 12W-1D-3L in North Carolina with a +15-goal differential. On the road, they are 6W-1D-10L, with a -8-goal differential. Also, of their 53 total goals this year, 40 of them have come from open play. Needless to say, the Union will be facing a team that is comfortable at home and who can find multiple ways to score.

Betting Notes

We have great weather in North Carolina on Saturday, which leaves me less concerned considering the Union are playing on a turf field. On DraftKings, Charlotte is the Moneyline favorite at +130, while the draw is +260, and the Union win is +170. I should also point out one important fact. Besides a Charlotte win, a Charlotte draw and a NYCFC loss/draw, or a Nashville loss/draw and NYC loss would give Charlotte the 4th spot in the East. So, even though they would prefer the three points, a draw still gives them a chance. Charlotte Tie No Bet is -135, while Philly’s price is +110. I know Carnell is trying to keep his team focused, but there’s a clear difference in mentality when it comes to Saturday’s fixture. Although a win would be nice, the Union’s priority is conditioning and health. For Charlotte, a loss could significantly impact how far they go in the playoffs. If you are going to place a Tie No Bet play, then Charlotte at -135 is the safer choice.

As of now, it’s unclear how Carnell will approach this match, especially with players like Tai Baribo and Danley Jean Jacques coming back from international duty. I imagine that Tai, Danley, and even Frankie get a rest, so expect to see Bruno, Mikael, Jesus, and Nathan/Olivier in the Starting XI. Also, we are unsure if Carnell rotates players at the start of the second half, or if he plays this like a normal match. I would therefore wait until the Starting XI is announced before making any bets on the Union.

However, let’s look at a few Player and Match Props. The books suggest that this will be a higher scoring affair, and DK shows the Total Match Goals over/2.5 at -180. That doesn’t surprise me in the slightest, and I’d have to agree. Although Charlotte v Philly hasn’t always had high-scoring results, these two teams are well-equipped offensively to put in 3-4 goals in total. For Goal Scorers, I’d focus on Charlotte’s players if you’re looking to place a bet prior to the lineups being announced. Toklomati Anytime Goal is +160 and Zaha is +210.

Something that caught my eye is Toklomati’s Shots on Target. Despite his +160 price to score a goal, 1+ Shot on Target is only -130. That’s a reasonable price to play for someone who has recently had a hat trick. Also, the books have been paying attention to Milan Iloski’s shot chart. 2+ Shots on Target for Milan is +115, and 1+ Shot on Target from Outside the Box is a whopping -225.

With Frankie Westfield coming off the bench, I imagine that Kai will get the start and play a full 90 minutes. The only way I don’t see that happening is if Carnell puts Nathan at left back, and Olivier at right back. If Kai starts, 1+ Assist for him is +380. Also, with Quinn out and Rafanello still on the mend, expect Ben Bender to possibly see some minutes. 1+ Assist for Bender is +380, although I would be very hesitant to place this bet unless he’s starting.

Lastly, considering what’s at stake for Charlotte, I’m a bit intrigued with To Score in Both Halves for them. Their number is +185 on DK, while Philly is +225. Again, I expect this to be a 2-1, or 3-2 type of match, so this may not be a bad play (depending on the lineups).

Final Thought

It feels like the Union have been in “playoff mode” for weeks now. It has been a constant push for the Supporters' Shield and the first place spot in the East. Although I want a victory, it will be nice to have a more “relaxed” viewing approach for Saturday’s contest. Play well, stay healthy, and get some minutes in before the playoffs. After the match, you can join us on AAT Sports Network for our Post-Game Show. We’ll be live about 10 minutes after the final whistle on YouTube and Facebook, so please hop in the comments and share your thoughts. Doop!