The Backdoor Cover - Week 5 NFL Picks

By: Josh Gamble

Last week was a bad week, I mean a bad week. The best part about last week is that it is over and we are never looking back. So let's dive right into this week's games. Please note that I am not including the "COVID games" as there is too much uncertainty on whether they will be played and Vegas has not set any lines for those games.

*Lines are accurate as of Thursday afternoon*

Buccaneers (-3.5) @ Bears – Over/Under 44.5

We have a Super Bowl LII quarterback rematch, albeit both with different teams. The line in this game started at a field goal and then pushed all the way to 5.5 at one point this week based on the amount of tickets coming in for the Bucs. Since that jump, there has been a good amount of cash coming in for the home dog pushing it back down to 3.5. The total is one of the lower numbers this week despite the Bucs going over in 75% of their games this season and the Bears having one of the poorer defenses thus far. What this tells me is that Vegas thinks that the Bears offense is just that bad. After watching them last week against the Colts that is a point that is hard to argue. I am not really seeing much value in this game at all unless the total comes down a little bit.

Photo courtesy of

Bengals @ Ravens (-13) – Over/Under 51

The Bengals have been impressive offensively this season with rookie quarterback, Joe Burrow. So far, he has done a great job of keeping games relatively close; however, playing the Ravens is a whole other animal. The Ravens have not been nearly as impressive this season as they were last year. Last week, they were 13-point favorites against the lowly Football Team and barely covered that game. I think the Bengals are a better team than Washington is and I would take the points in this game. I think the best play in this game is the over. The Ravens defense gave up a ton of yards to Haskins last week. I would expect the Bengals to be able to put a good amount of points on the board. I will be taking the Bengals +13 and the over 51.

Panthers @ Falcons (-1) – Over/Under 54.5