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Quick Preview: Union v New England - Match & Betting Notes

What's been happening?

The Union are in a free fall. Just when you thought this team had a chance to turn it around, they found a new way to stumble. This was on full display Wednesday evening in Chester. NYC only needed 2 minutes to get themselves on the board, and once again, mental mistakes hurt the Union in the first half.

Philly did settle into the match and had their chances, but a careless tackle by Kai toward the end of the half gave NYC a free kick. Even with a tight angle, Wolf's free kick found it's way over Semmle and into the back of the net. Carranza's heroic strike kept the Boys in Blue in the match to start the second half, but it wasn't good enough for Philly, who have now lost 4 straight home games.

But hey, at least we got a raccoon on the pitch to lift our spirits a bit. Our friend Bootleg MLS released a shirt for our furry friend, and of course I bought it immediately.

Presser Notes

As Jim said on Wednesday evening, only the Union players and staff can dig themselves out of this hole. Yesterday, Curtin took to the podium again before the Union's match against New England. Jim reiterated the need for every player to be ready to compete, and it does not seem that this group is ready to panic.

One of the main concerns for this club is depth, and Jose Nunez inquired about Richard Odada, who is apporaching the end of his loan. Curtin shared his thoughts on Richard, as well as players developing at this level.

As of May 17th, the following players are out for the Revs: Bye, Nacho Gil, McNamara, and Miller. They also have four players listed as questionable: Borrero, Jones, Mensah, and Spaulding.

Thankfully for Philly, their list is much shorter. Markus Anderson, Andre Blake, and Damion Lowe are all listed as questionable. Considering the turf field, I expect to see Semmle again in net. I also believe Elliott has earned the starting spot over Lowe for now.

Betting Notes

The Union might be struggling, but our bets have found some success this season. On Wednesday, we hit on the Carranza anytime goal and over 1.5 goal parlay. It's tough to say what type of Union squad we will see each game, but two things have been consistent this season: Philly has no issue scoring and allowing goals.

So far, the Union have scored 22 goals, but they've allowed 21. They are now facing a New England squad who has allowed 22 goals, but have only scored 9! On paper, you would think the Blue and Gold should be able to out score the Revs, but as we saw against Orlando and Seattle, even weak teams are having their way with the Philly defense. I know the Union walked away with a 1-0 victory the last time they were at Gillette Stadium, but I would be shocked if we only saw one goal this evening.

Somehow, the Union are slight favorites tonight.  Majority of books are showing the Philly Moneyline at +140, although Bet365 is offering the best number at +145.  For the Revs, you can find their best number on Caesars at +175.  A draw is +265 on BetRivers.

Considering the amount of goals both teams are allowing, the over 2.5 being -160 on DraftKings is no surprise, but that is not a number I’m rushing to bet.  Also, with the Union desperate for some form of cohesion, I’m not entirely sure how Curtin approaches today’s game.  This is truly unchartered territory for Philly, and I would say all options are on the table as they try to get back in the win column.

For Dave and Jose, they’re not too optimistic about today’s outcome.  Jose thinks it will be a 2-0 New England win, while Dave thinks we will see a 4-2 Revolution victory, with Uhre and Sullivan scoring.

For some reason, I am not as pessimistic as my colleagues, but I’m not rushing to hit the Union Moneyline either.  If you’re looking for a safer bet, the Union Tie No Bet at -124 seems doable and will likely be what I pick tonight.  As much as I don’t trust Philly, the Revs have struggled to score all season in MLS play.  Playing New England might be what the Union need to get back on track. 

If you want to get a bit creative, the “Correct Score Combinations” on FanDuel are intriguing.  Philly to win 2-1, 3-1, or 4-1 is +490, while the same bet for New England is +500.  If you think it could be a high scoring draw (2-2, 3-3, etc), that is +750.  I might try throwing some money on these options for the fun of it, but again, it’s hard to predict how these two teams will play tonight considering their form. Finally, we know that Julian Carranza led the halftime speech on Wednesday night, and he immediately scored a hell of a free kick to start the second.  I expect to see Julian playing at a high level again today and he should get some clear chances at net.

Finally, here are some numbers from FanDuel for the Anytime Goal Scorers.

Gazdag +140

Carranza +140

Uhre +195

McGlynn +700

Harriel +1200

Glesnes +2300 (Jakob has come close recently on headers for what it's worth).

We know Philly can compete with the best teams, but we are approaching desperation mode as they struggle to win a game. Doop!

Mike Barrera (Mbarrera1323 on Tik Tok and Twitter)


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