Philadelphia Union v Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Match and Betting Notes

Photo Credit: Philadelphia Union Social Media

It's always nice to take a break from the weekly grind that is the MLS season, but with the Supporters' Shield in the Union's grasp, I can't wait to see Philly back on the pitch. Let's dive into what's been going on with the Blue and Gold.

A Cincy Sweep

The Union traveled to Ohio in their last MLS match on August 30th, and it turned out to be an intense fight between FC Cincinnati and Philly. Andrew Rick was forced into difficult saves, and Bruno Damiani wowed us all with a very athletic header in the 49th minute. If you haven't watched Todd Lewis' Goal Breakdown on The Free Kick, check it out below. He does a great job discussing the build up before Damiani's game-winning strike.

It wasn't just the Bruno goal or Rick's performance that made this such an incredible win. Olwethu Makhanya's reckless tackle earned him a second yellow in the 60th minute, and the Union were forced to play a half hour with 10 men. They battled against Cincy in the final thirty minutes, and the Boys in Blue would leave TQL Stadium with a gritty and well-deserved 3 points. Carnell's squad gave themselves a 5 point lead in the Eastern Conference Standings, remained a point above San Diego for the Shield, and finished the regular season sweep against the 2nd seed in the East. If the Union do manage to win the Supporters' Shield, we will certainly look back at this match as a big reason why.

Pre-Game Presser and Roster Notes

Several players were away for international duty, including Tai Baribo and Danley Jean Jacques. Coach Carnell spoke with the media on Wednesday and mentioned that everyone returned safe and sound, with Danley returning on Wednesday a bit later than the others.

Carnell sounded optimistic when speaking about the Union. He mentioned their positive momentum entering the international break, and that their commitment to each other will help in this tough road match. Of course, Bradley brought up the world class talent of Thomas Muller, but he made it clear that the squad will only be focused on the team, and not the stardom of Muller. It wasn't too long ago when the Union looked starstruck against Messi in Leagues Cup, and considering Philly's performance against Messi earlier this year, it doesn't seem like the Union are concerned with the big name players.

Coach also spoke about Andre Blake's recovery after his right hamstring injury. With the Jamaican goalie back at training this week, it looks like Philly will have their top goalkeeper back in net. Considering Olwethu Makhanya's two game suspension, it will be crucial to have as many top players in front of goal on Saturday evening. Also, with the US Open Cup on Tuesday, I imagine Makhanya will be fresh and ready to go in Nashville while he serves his MLS suspension.

Lastly, Coach again mentioned the Union's successful month of May. It's clear that Bradley takes a lot of pride in how his squad performed during that congested month, and he reiterated how it laid the foundation for the current success.

If you'd like to watch Carnell's press conference for yourself, I've added the link here.

Vancouver Preview

The Vancouver Whitecaps FC have had a strong season. They currently sit in third place in the Western Conference, only behind Minnesota and San Diego. They're also 8 points behind the Union in the Supporters' Shield standings. They hold a 14W-7D-6L overall record and a +16 goal differential. I should also mention that the Union have not played Vancouver since 2019, which was a 1-1 draw in Canada.

Vancouver enters this match having only won 2 of their previous 5 contests. Their most recent match was a thrilling 3-2 victory over St. Louis City, which ended with a stoppage time penalty kick by Thomas Muller. Prior to that, they had a 1-1 draw against Houston, a 2-2 draw against Forge FC in the Canadian Championship, a 2-1 loss to San Jose, and a 3-0 victory over Sporting KC.

The Whitecaps' star player is Muller, but his surrounding talent has earned recognition as well. Players like Brian White, Tristan Blackmon, and Sebastian Berhalter have all received call ups to the US Men's National Team, while Jayden Nelson has seen time with the Canadian National squad. Muller will certainly draw the Union's attention when Vancouver is in the attack, but thankfully Philly will not have to worry about Brian White. The Vancouver forward is out with a hamstring injury, and that is a significant blow for the Whitecaps considering his 14 goals in 19 matches. I imagine that Daniel Rios, who scored against St. Louis City, could fill in for Brian in the starting XI. Rios has played in 24 matches for the home side, with 3 goals and 2 assists. Vancouver also has 5 other players listed on the MLS injury report: Sam Adekugbe (Achillies), Ryan Gauld (knee), Joedrick Pupe (hamstring), Sebastian Schonlau (Achillies), and Ranko Veselinovic (knee).

Coach Jesper Sørensen's side can put up goals with the best of MLS, and they have 49 scores this season. Additionally, they have scored 10 of those goals from set pieces. The Union are frequently praised for their lethal production on set pieces, but Philly will get a taste of their own medicine when they travel to Vancouver. This is definitely a match where I would love to see Olwethu Makhanya on defense. Instead, Nathan Harriel will need to use his physicality and impressive vertical when the Whitecaps are leaping for an incoming cross.

Vancouver is a strong home squad, and they have an 8W-3D-2L record at BC Place, with a +13 goal differential. Thankfully for Philly, they aren't ones to back down on the road. Even with just a +4 goal differential on the road, the Union hold a 7W-2D-5L record away from Chester, and I imagine we'll see another tough performance like we did in Cincinnati. Lastly, I know we talked about the Whitecaps on set pieces, but the Union's 17 goals on set pieces is absolutely remarkable. Again, Coach Carnell has done a fantastic job at making this club dangerous at all levels.

As mentioned, the Union travel to Nashville on September 16th for the US Open Cup semi-final. I do believe we will see some rotation on Saturday evening, but it's unclear how Carnell will rotate considering the Supporters' Shield race. Thankfully, Vancouver should also be balancing some rotation. The Whitecaps will be playing the 2nd leg against Forge FC on Tuesday. A successful result on 9/16 would send Vancouver to the Canadian Championship Final against either Vancouver FC or Atletico Ottawa. Of course, a win in the final would earn Vancouver a trip to the CONCACAF Champions Cup tournament, so I expect Sørensen to keep his squad's health in mind.

Betting Notes

The Union enter Saturday night as road underdogs. Draftkings has Vancouver's moneyline at +120, the draw at +235, and the Union win at +200. Anytime I see a good price for the Union moneyline, I check the Tie No Bet. The Union have earned my respect on the road, and a +125 Tie No Bet is a reasonable play for me.

Again, rotation is important to keep in mind, so I would hold off on placing some bets until the lineups come out. However, it's not surprising to me that Both Teams to Score is a pricey -210, so I took a look at the Halves props. Both Teams to Score - Both Halves is an enticing +750. I know both clubs have been solid on defense, but even a 5 dollar bet on this will give you a nice lunch on Sunday afternoon. There's some serious offensive firepower between these two sides, and I wouldn't be surprised if we had a shootout on Saturday.

If you aren't willing to take a chance on a shootout, then let's focus on the Union's offense. Milan Iloski has been a key difference maker in the Philly offense, and Milan had a breakout performance in Vancouver earlier this season with 4 goals. Considering this rejuvenated offense, I really like the Union over 1.5 team goals at +105. I'm not entirely sure if the Union can stop the Whitecaps from scoring multiple goals, but I do have faith in the Philly offense to get a couple of scores on the road. Also, Philly is the healthier of the two sides, and that could be a main reason why the Union walk away with three points.

The absence of Makhanya is a significant one. I have really enjoyed Nathan's ability to play centerback, but Makhanya is the more reliable man next to Jakob Glesnes. Also, if there is rotation from Carnell, I wouldn't be surprised to see Danley on the bench to start the match. In the pre-match presser, Coach mentioned that Danley probably saw the most minutes out of any Union player on international duty, so we may see DJJ rest a bit before Tuesday's match. The possible absence of Danley and Makhanya gives me concern that Thomas Muller could earn an assist or goal, and 1+ assist for Muller is +390. We know he's an elite talent, and I could definitely see a scenario where Thomas catches the Philly defense sleeping and finds a teammate for a goal. Considering Brian White's absence, Daniel Rios Anytime Goal at +190 is a decent play as well. The Whitecaps will need a big performance from him if they look to earn another home win.

Here's a few of the Union's Anytime Goalscorer numbers: Baribo +150, Uhre +285, Damiani +285, Iloski +310, Q. Sullivan +550, and Lukic +750. Like I said above, if Danley sees some time on the bench, then I believe Jovan would be more involved in the attack. Lukic hasn't scored for quite some time, and I could certainly see him cracking one from outside the box if given the opportunity. Even if he doesn't score, you could always take a chance on Lukic at +150 for 1+ shot on goal, or even Iloski 2+ shots for +170. Milan has been unafraid to rip a strike at net, and I believe that will continue throughout the rest of the season.

Final Thought

The Union are in playoff mode now, and every game matters in this final stretch. Philly has a real chance to push themselves away from San Diego in the Shield race, while also securing a spot in the Open Cup Final after Tuesday's match. Similar to the Cincy game, Coach Carnell will need to pull all the right strings to ensure the Union walk away with a win. After the game, we'll be going live on AAT Sports Network for our Union post game show. We'll be on the air about 15 minutes after the final whistle, and you can join the convo on Facebook and Youtube. Doop!