Philadelphia Union v Toronto FC: Match Preview and Betting Notes

Photograph Credit: Philadelphia Union

The Union have a busy week and start a two-game road trip on Wednesday evening. Let’s quickly discuss Saturday’s draw against DC and tonight’s match against Toronto FC.

Subpar at Subaru Park

The Philadelphia Union earned a 0-0 draw against DC United on Saturday evening. I’m frustrated by this result, but we’ll start with the positives from the draw. First, Jesus Bueno continues to shine, and he was the best player on the field. Next, the Union earned their first shutout of the MLS season and are now unbeaten in two consecutive matches (4 points total).

On the other hand, this was a missed opportunity from the Boys in Blue. DC United hasn’t scored in a month, played 120 minutes on April 15th in an Open Cup loss, were missing Pirani, and have not won a game since March 14th. These are the teams that the Union would have handled at home last season. Instead, the offense couldn’t capitalize on 17 shot attempts and 62% possession.

Speaking of shots, the offensive struggles continued. I feel like a broken record at this point, but until Carnell fixes these issues, we should continue to be critical of the offensive production (or lack thereof).

Coach elected to start Alladoh after he came off the bench against Montreal, and he paired Ezekiel with Bruno up top. Once again, Indiana Vassilev earned the start next to Milan Iloski. As you’ll see in my Shots on Target list below, the 4 shots on target came from Iloski, Bueno, and Damiani.

My frustration comes from Carnell’s unwillingness to break away from the current formation and lineup. Indiana’s press may be efficient, but he’s unable to generate the same playmaking and chance creation as Cavan or Milan. Next, Alladoh followed up his nice performance against Montreal with a forgettable outing against DC. Damiani wasn’t much better, and he once again missed a scoring opportunity from inside the box.

I understand that there is a significant amount of money invested in Bruno and Ezekiel, however, their partnership at the top of the formation is clearly not working. We also see immediate chance creation from Cavan Sullivan off the bench, but he is still unable to earn a start for Vassilev. 8 MLS and 2 CONCACAF matches are a big enough sample size to understand that this isn’t good enough and a change needs to be made. Now that Danley is back, maybe we’ll see him earn the start next to Milan. We also have two more matches this week, so I imagine that Carnell is forced to get creative with his rotation to keep the team fresh.

Shots Attempts and Shots on Target through 8 MLS and 2 CCC Matches

Union v DC United: 17 shot attempts, 4 shots on goal (2 Iloski, 1 Bueno, 1 Damiani).

Union v Montreal: 15 shot attempts, 6 shots on goal (2 Bueno, 1 Iloski, 1 Sery, 1 Damiani, 1 Bedoya).

Union v Charlotte: 17 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (1 Iloski, 1 Jean Jacques, 1 Bueno)

Union v Chicago Fire: 12 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (1 Vassilev, 1 Iloski, 1 Bueno)

Union v Club America - Second Leg: 7 shot attempts, 2 shots on goal (1 Korzeniowski, 1 Bueno)

Union v Atlanta United: 14 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (1 Ndinga, 1 Westfield, 1 Anello)

Union v Club America - First Leg: 12 shot attempts, 1 shot on goal (1 Westfield).

Union v San Jose: 13 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (2 Vassilev, 1 Harriel).

Union v NYC: 16 shot attempts, 5 shots on goal (2 Harriel, 1 Vassilev, 1 Korzeniowski, 1 Anello)

Union at DC United: 12 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (2 Iloski, 1 Anello)

Toronto FC Preview

For the second time in eleven days, the Philadelphia Union are crossing the Canadian border. This time, they take on Toronto FC for their first meeting of 2026. It’s been a solid start for the Canadian side so far in MLS, as they’re 3W-3D-2L and in 6th place in the Eastern Conference standings.

Similar to Montreal, TFC started their MLS campaign with a long road stretch. They lost their first two games of the season against FC Dallas and the Whitecaps. However, they’re now unbeaten in six consecutive games and earned their first win with a 1-0 result in Cincy. Since then, Toronto drew New York Red Bulls 1-1, beat Columbus 2-1, beat Colorado 3-2, tied Cincinnati 1-1, and just tied Austin 3-3 on the 18th. As you’ll notice from the box scores, this offense will put up numbers, but they’ll also allow at least a goal a game. Like the Union, they only have 1 clean sheet in MLS so far.

Unlike Philly, Toronto is already in double-digits on the season with 13 goals in 2026, 8 of which have come from open play. However, most of their recent success has come without the assistance of Djordje Mihailovic. The former Colorado Rapid was brought to Toronto last Summer, and he has 1 goal and 2 assists so far in 5 MLS matches this season. Unfortunately, Mihailovic hasn’t played since March 21st and was just diagnosed with a pelvic stress fracture last week. As of now, this looks to be a two month recovery for the 27 year-old attacking player.

Despite the absence of Djordje, Toronto bolstered their attack this offseason with two key additions. TFC acquired Daniel Salloi in a trade with Sporting KC during the offseason, and Daniel’s already earned 3 goals and 1 assist in 8 matches. In 2025, Salloi had 7 goals and 3 assists in 33 MLS matches, so he’s certainly on pace to clear both of those totals. Next, Toronto added Josh Sargent from Norwich City of the English Championship. As Jeff Carlisle from ESPN reported, “Toronto will pay Norwich a fee of $22 million, which could rise to $27 million if certain incentives are met”.

So far, it’s been a bit underwhelming from Sargent in 5 MLS matches as he only has 1 goal and 1 assist in those contests, both of which were earned against Colorado. We’ll see if he and Robin Fraser's squad can find some luck against the Union.

Player Availability and Betting Notes

For Toronto, Mihailovic (pelvic stress fracture), Theo Carbeanu (knee), Nicksoen Gomis (achilles), Benjamin Kuscevic (groin), Henry Wingo (thigh), and Matheus Pereira (groin) are all out. For Philly, Quinn Sullivan (knee) remains on the Injury report, while Anello is off the report and back in training according to Carnell.

From the betting side of things, I need to take some accountability for Saturday. I’ve been successfully fading the Union since their home match against San Jose, but I was overly confident in the Boys in Blue against a struggling DC United squad. As luck would have it, I backed the Union and went 0 for 3 on my plays. Union moneyline, Baribo 1+ Shot on Target, and Makhanya 2+ tackles all fell flat. So, as you can probably guess, we are back to fading the Union tonight at BMO Field.

DraftKings has Toronto as favorites in their home arena. Toronto moneyline is +135, Draw is +230, and Union win is +180. I am a bit curious if Bradley changes up the lineup considering the short rest, and for that reason, we may see Cavan (pending Canadian Child Labor laws lol) on Wednesday night. I wish I was completely kidding with that comment, but I am genuinely uncertain about that. However, a change in the lineup could end up benefiting the Union’s chances on Wednesday evening, but I still think Toronto is the better side. As a precaution, I do like the Tie No Bet for Toronto at -135. It’s a cheap enough price if TFC wins but covers me if Philly puts together a better performance than I’m expecting.

Next, Total Goals was an easy one for me to gravitate towards. Over 2.5 match goals is -115, while the under is -110. Toronto has cleared that total in 3 of their last 5 games and have scored 2 or more goals in 3 of their last 4 games. Again, I’m concerned about the Union’s ability to score goals, so I looked at Toronto’s Team Total of over 1.5 at +105. Considering Toronto’s recent form, along with the Union’s offensive issues, I’m taking the TFC Team Total at +105. Yes, the Union had a clean sheet against DC, but DC’s offense may be worse than Philly’s. Also, Montreal was still able to get one goal against the Union, and Toronto is a better side than their fellow Canadians.

Next, I wanted to look at the First Goal option again under Match Props. Toronto FC is -115 to score first, while the Union are at even money (+100). I expected to feel confident in backing TFC in this spot, but their recent form doesn’t give me what I anticipated. The home side conceded first in 3 of their last 4 matches, with the one match being an own goal from Cincy. For that reason, I’m staying away from this option on Wednesday night.

Lastly, let’s look at Anytime Goal Scorers. Toronto and Philadelphia are similar when it comes to scoring production. Goals are coming from multiple players, not just one superstar or playmaker. For this reason, it may be a bit difficult to determine who will score for either side. Regardless, Philly has conceded against the “big names” of MLS this season, so we can focus on that. Sargent is +195 and Salloi is +245. Considering their ability, along with Salloi's scoring so far, I would lean toward these options if you're backing a goal scorer tonight. If you want some extra security, To Score or Assist for Sargent and Salloi is +120 and +140, respectively. For the Union, Damiani is +255, Alladoh is +270, and Iloski is +320. Considering the possibility that Carnell rotates his lineup, I would wait until the lineups are released before backing any Philly scorer.

Final Thought

I was hoping for the Union to be on a two-game winning streak entering tonight, but we can’t do anything about the past now. I still have very little faith in Carnell and company, especially on the road against a solid Toronto side. However, the schedule congestion may end up being a blessing in disguise for the Union if it forces Coach into some rotation. We’ll see if the Boys in Blue can win in Toronto like they did in 2025.

After the show, join us on The Free Kick's platform for our Union post-game show. Thanks to Todd Lewis for letting us borrow his network today while our AAT colleagues host their Eagles Draft show. Doop!!