Philadelphia Union v NYCFC: Match Preview & Betting Notes

Photo Credit: Philadelphia Union Social Media

As the band Staind once said, "It's been a while." Yes, it certainly has. It's been 22 days to be exact since the Philadelphia Union defeated the Chicago Fire on November 1st. Let's shake off the rust and dive into the Eastern Conference Semi-Final Match.

A Busy Break

The Philadelphia Union may have taken a three week break from soccer, but this was far from an ordinary stoppage of play. I won't go into detail regarding each topic, but I do want to list some significant things that happened since Philly beat Chicago.

First, MLS announced that they will be switching to a Summer-to-Spring Schedule starting in 2027, with a 14-game season played through the Spring and early Summer of 2027 prior to the full switch.

Next, Andre Blake and the Reggae Boyz failed to earn a World Cup qualification during this window, but congrats to Danley Jean Jacques and Haiti as they punched their ticket to the 2026 World Cup. Andre will have another chance to join Danley in the World Cup during the Intercontinental Playoff matches scheduled in March of 2026.

Shortly after Philly's win on November 1st, news broke that the Union were finalizing a deal with Ezekiel Alladoh, a Ghanaian striker from IF Brommapojkarna in the Allsvenskan, Sweden’s top division. I don't want to speculate too much at this moment, but with Mikael Uhre's contract coming to an end, this may be Mikael's replacement for the 2026 season. As of now, this seems to be an exciting prospect that could make an immediate impact for Coach Carnell. Our friend Jimmy King of Philly Sports Network shared a goal from Alladoh that you can watch below.

Finally, I do need to discuss the most significant news that broke this month. Pablo Iglesias Maurer and the Guardian released an investigative piece on November 18th regarding Ernst Tanner. In this report, Pablo lists several allegations that claim Tanner has exhibited sexist, racist, and homophobic behavior throughout his 7-year tenure. If you haven't given this article a read, I encourage you to do so, and I've provided a link for it here. On Thursday, November 21st, Bradley Carnell spoke with the media and briefly addressed the report. Pablo provided the quote, and I've included it below.

The MLS investigation on Ernst has been reopened since the release of this report, and I'll refrain from adding my thoughts until after we have all of the information. However, I will applaud Bradley for how he approached the topic and refocused the conversation on the NYCFC game. The Union have a chance at something historic, and Coach Carnell and the players seem fully invested on the match.

NYCFC Preview

First, let's discuss the Disciplinary and Injury Report. Aidan O'Neill has been suspended for Sunday's match for Yellow Card Accumulation. Also, as of November 5, there are no players on accumulation warning. Regarding injuries, Alejandro Bedoya is questionable for the match with a hamstring injury, and of course Quinn is still out with his torn ACL. New York has four players out with leg injuries: Malachi Jones, Alonso Martinez, Keaton Parks, and Andres Perea. Andres suffered a gruesome injury against Charlotte FC in the Best of Three round, while Alonso Martinez injured his knee while representing Costa Rica. The Martinez loss is a harsh one for NYC fans, as the Costa Rican had 19 goals and 1 assist in 33 matches. 19 goals is 35% of the away club's 54 scores this year, 39 of which have come in open play.

On the season, the Union were 20W-6D-8L, while New York was 17W-5D-12L. We know the Union have been a force at Subaru Park, while NYC has been mediocre on the road with a 6W-5D-6L record. Of course, these teams played each other on two occasions during the season. The first was a 1-0 Philly loss in New York, with the lone NYC goal coming off a bad mistake by Andrew Rick. In the second match, Mikael Uhre secured the 1-0 win and the Supporters' Shield with a goal in the 40th minute.

NYC may have defeated a solid Charlotte side in the first round of the playoffs, but there's some context needed. First, Pep Biel was out for the playoffs with a knee injury, and Wilfried Zaha missed Game 1 due to a red card suspension he earned against the Union. Next, Charlotte shut NYC out in Game 2 and stole a win in a penalty shootout. Also, prior to the playoffs, NYC wasn't exactly in the best form. They lost 3 of their final 4 games, with their only win being a 3-2 victory against the New York Red Bulls.

Without Alonso, NYC will look to their second most impactful player, Hannes Wolf. The Austrian midfielder has 11 goals and 6 assists in 36 games this year, and he earned an assist in New York's 3-1 victory over Charlotte in Game 3. Also in Game 3, Nicolas Fernandez earned a brace. The Argentinian has only played 14 games for the away team, but he's scored 5 goals and grabbed 1 assist. I expect him to threaten Andre Blake and the defense on Sunday evening.

Betting Notes

If you ask Union fans about how the team performs after a break, I'm sure you'll get a negative or mixed response. Unfortunately, Philly hasn't been overly successful after pauses, or at least it doesn't feel like they have. However, this is a new coach and a new batch of players. Also, with NYC adjusting to the absence of Alonso Martinez, I have hope that Philly will come out fresh and ready to go.

As always, we'll look at DraftKings for today's betting notes. The Union Moneyline is -115, the draw is +255, and the NYC win is +270. Once the Martinez news broke, I was able to grab the Union at even money, but that line has moved a bit since that report.

We have a clear and comfortable day in Chester, and the Total Match Goals is intriguing at under 2.5 at -105. The Union and New York have a combined 24 clean sheets on the season, while Philly has only allowed 35 goals, and NYC has only allowed 44 scores. Also, with Martinez absent, it's possible we see some scoring regression from New York. These teams have played each other close in both matches with two total goals in the contests. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 1-0 or 2-0 match on Sunday, but with a dry pitch and clear skies, maybe the Union finally break through and score multiple goals on their I-95 rivals.

For the Union, the team changed significantly when Milan Iloski joined the starting XI, and I expect a strong performance from Milan on Sunday. The one thing I love about Iloski is his lack of fear to test the keeper. Player Shots on Target 2+ for Milan is +100, and with this being a do or die match, I hope he's ready to let it rip. If you wanted to do a 2-leg parlay, 1+ Shot on Target for Milan and the Union moneyline is +116 on DraftKings.

Again, focusing on the Union's playmakers, we have to check out Kai Wagner's numbers. 1+ assist for Wagner is +320, while Indy Vassilev is +450. We have seen Indy be more aggresive in the attack during the second half of the season, and Vassilev at that price is worth a small bet.

Before I looked at Anytime Goal Scorers, I checked out Goalkeeper Saves and found an interesting option. Matt Freese 4+ Saves is +110. Freese saved 4 shots in the 1-0 Philly win against New York, and he saved 3 shots in NYC's 1-0 victory earlier in the year. Again, I do think that Philly will come out hot, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Philly test Matt early. Considering his save totals in the last 2 matches, 4+ saves isn't a bad option here.

Finally, let's look at Goal Scorers: Baribo is +150, Uhre is +210, Damiani is +210, and Iloski is +300. For New York, Wolf is +310 and Nicolas Fernandez Mercau is +270. Again, these two players will need to step up for the road team if they expect to win on Sunday. I anticipate that one, if not both, will be involved in any goal scored by New York.

Final Thought

The Union have hurdled every obstacle in their path this season. From a new coach, to Quinn Sullivan's injury, and now the Tanner investigation, there have been distractions and challenges along the way. However, there is a calm confidence from Bradley Carnell, and this has permeated through the roster. I like our chances on Sunday, and I like our chances at Subaru Park even more.

After the match, we'll be going Live on AAT Sports Network for our Union Post Game Show. You can join us 15 minutes after the final whistle on Facebook and YouTube. Doop!