Philadelphia Union v Atlanta United: Match Preview and Betting Notes

Photograph Credit: Philadelphia Union

It's only March 14th. It's only March 14th. It's only March 14th. Maybe if I say it enough times, I'll feel less disappointed with how the Union's season has gone so far. After a frustrating defeat at home to Club America, the Union take a short flight to face Atlanta United. Let's break down the last week for the Union, as well as the preview for Saturday afternoon.

Looking for Answers

The Union hosted the San Jose Earthquakes on Saturday and Club America on Tuesday night. Unfortunately, both ended in 1-0 defeats. Philadelphia now falls to 0-0-3 in MLS Play, and they'll also take a 1-0 aggregate goal deficit to Mexico on March 18th for the second leg against Club America.

As frustrating as the losses are, the manner in which the Union are losing may be more infuriating. The Boys in Blue have 1 goal so far in 3 MLS games, which was a penalty kick goal from Indy Vassilev against NYCFC. They have not been able to finish on their chances in open play, nor have their set pieces been efficient enough to test opposing keepers.

So, what has been the root of the problems? To start, a majority of fans would agree that the Union look disjointed. Whether it's inefficient passing, or miscommunications on the back line, this feels like a squad that is stuck in preseason mode. It's easy to blame the coach for issues like this, but some things aren't in Carnell's control right now.

There have been injuries to players like Lukic, Sery, and Westfield. We've also had suspensions for Makhanya and Alladoh and a congested schedule that has forced us into 6 matches in 20 days, with a trip to Trinidad in the mix too. As a result, the Union have trotted out different lineups in each contest, and the back line in particular has been a game of musical chairs.

On the other side of the field, chance creation has been limited, the Union have struggled to stretch the field, and they haven't been clinical enough in their finishing. Just look at Indy and Bruno's missed shots against Club America as a perfect example.

For additional context, here are some Union numbers from the last few matches:

Union v Club America: 12 shot attempts, 1 shot on goal (1 Westfield).

Union v San Jose: 13 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (2 Vassilev, 1 Harriel).

Union v NYC: 16 shot attempts, 5 shots on goal (2 Harriel, 1 Vassilev, 1 Korzeniowski, 1 Anello)

Union at DC United: 12 shot attempts, 3 shots on goal (2 Iloski, 1 Anello)

So, what can we do to fix this? To start, consistency on the back line is imperative. However, as long as there's added congestion from CONCACAF Champions Cup, Carnell will continue to rotate. Union fans may have to wait to see the finished product in front of their goal keeper. Ideally, I'd prefer it to be Ndinga, Makhanya, Sery, and Frankie (going left to right).

Next, I do appreciate that Carnell changed things up in the second half against Club America. The Union switched to a 4-2-3-1 formation, and they moved Danley Jean Jacques higher up in the attack. As I've said on our Union Post Game Shows, Danley is one of our best players, and he has been dangerous with his passes in the attacking third. I'd like to see more of Danley in that CAM role to spark some creativity.

Lastly, we need to get our playmakers in better positions to score. As you can see in my stats above, neither Damiani nor Alladoh have had a shot on target in 4 MLS and CCC matches (not including anything against a weak Defence Force side). Furthermore, Iloski hasn't had a shot on target since the DC match. If the Union want to score goals, then they need to find ways to get their pricey playmakers into a position to score. Perhaps the 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-3 approach could create better chances. Also, Cavan Sullivan over Indy Vassilev would be a nice change to the starting lineup.

Atlanta Preview

It was a difficult 2025 for the Five Stripes, who ended their season in 14th place and outside of the playoff picture. Atlanta only had 5 victories in 2025, with 38 goals scored and 63 goals conceded.

Unfortunately, their big three players didn't help their cause. In 2025, Aleksey Miranchuk had 6 goals and 3 assists in 33 matches, Emmanuel Latte Lath had 7 goals and 1 assist in 30 matches, and Miguel Almiron had 6 goals and 4 assists in 31 matches.

If you're doing the math at home, that's 19 combined goals and 8 combined assists between three players. Tai Baribo had 19 goals across all competitions, while Kai Wagner had 10 assists.

In 2026, the offense picked up right where it left off. Atlanta is currently 0-0-3 too and they were shut out in their first two matches (which were both 2-0 defeats). However, despite the 3-2 home loss to Real Salt Lake, there was a glimmer of hope during Atlanta's third loss of the year. Aleksey made his first start for the Five Stripes against RSL and earned himself a brace.

I was able to watch some of this match and caught the goal highlights as well. Atlanta had scoring opportunities in the first half prior to their first goal, and the speed of Almiron and Latte Lath caused issues for the visiting side. In both of the Atlanta goals, the ball went left to right in the box and found a wide open Miranchuk on each occasion. For the Union, their conceded goals against NYC, San Jose, and Club America have all come in similar manners, as highlighted by Ben Brecher during our March 10th post game show. These conceded goals have similarities to how Miranchuk scored his brace last week. I hope that's not foreshadowing for what's to come tonight, but it doesn't give me a ton of confidence either.

Defensively, Atlanta continues to have problems. They've given up 2 or more goals in each match this season, and RSL was inches away from having 4 or more goals on Saturday. For example, they hit the cross bar in the first minute of their game at Atlanta.

If you're looking for something optimistic, then Real Salt Lake's first goal should give you that. Atlanta turned the ball over and their back line was quickly exposed and caught too high up the field. Solans made a good run, found himself 1 v 1 against Hoyos, and easily finished for his first professional goal. The Union prefer to turn the ball over and quickly attack. If we find ourselves in that position, then maybe we'll have similar luck on Saturday afternoon.

RSL's second and third goal came from great individual efforts, something that the Union have been lacking. The Atlanta midfield was too relaxed in the midfield and Hezarkhani's trap, cut back, and right-footed finish in the box was fantastic. The Union have struggled to create 1v1 chances in the box, and I need to see Milan Iloski attack the Atlanta defense in a similar way.

For the third RSL goal, Gozo's 1v1 approach reminded me so much of Quinn Sullivan. He trapped a long ball with his right, gave himself space against the defender, cut to his opposite foot, and finished efficiently with his left. Again, players like Iloski and C. Sullivan should be licking their chops when seeing those goals. Hopefully, they try to replicate both chances on Saturday.

Overall, Atlanta may be starting to figure things out on offense, but their defense is off to a dreadful start. We'll see if that's the remedy the Union need to find the back of the net.

Player Availability and Betting Notes

The Union started their season with a handful of injuries, but things are beginning to clear up for Philly. Once again, only Eddy Davis (quad) and Quinn Sullivan (knee) are out with injuries. Atlanta has two players on their injury report as well, with Will Reilly (hamstring) and Juan Berrocal (hamstring) listed as out and questionable, respectively. Lastly, neither team will be missing a player for card suspension, nor are there accumulation warnings as of March 12th on the MLS website.

As always, we'll be using Draftkings Sportsbook for today's plays. Last week, two of our bets hit easily. Timo Werner Score or Assist at +155 cashed on Bouda's goal, and over 5.5 corner kicks -150 for the Union cashed with the Boys in Blue earning 11 corners. This week, the Union are slight underdogs at Mercedes Benz Stadium. Atlanta moneyline is +150, draw is +245, and Union ML is +155.

I'm not exactly itching to back the Union, especially with Atlanta's ability to put two goals in last week. However, one category that intrigues me for both teams is Tie No Bet: Atlanta is -115 and Philly is -110. If I had to pick one, I'm siding with Atlanta United. The home squad desperately need a point, and they won't have to worry about a flight to Mexico like the Union.

Again, the Union Player Shots on Target do not match what we've seen so far this season. Damiani 2+ Shots on Target is +115, while Iloski is 2+ at +135. I know both players will get off the cold streak at some point, but I'd rather see it happen first before backing either individual.

For Atlanta, Miranchuk's brace against RSL has definitely impacted his Shot on Target prop. 1+ Shot on Target for Aleksey is -190, while 2+ Shots on Target is +245. If anything, I'd try to pair the 1+ Shot on Target with another play. Also, considering Indy Vassilev continues to get himself in good positions to score, I should mention that 1+ Shot on Target for Indy is -105. Considering the trip to Mexico, I would maybe wait for the lineups to come out before playing this.

I know Atlanta's defense has been letting goals in at will, while their offense is beginning to show some life. So, I looked at Total Match Goals next. Over 2.5 total match goals is -125. Here's the thing. The Union's offense may be non-existent right now, but their defense hasn't been letting in a ton of goals. DC, Club America, and San Jose were only able to score 1 goal each, while NYC put in their second goal when the Union were down a man. With all of that said, here's my favorite play of the day: 1+ Shot on Target for Miranchuk and over 1.5 total match goals = -125. The Union haven't had a clean sheet (other than Defence Force), and Atlanta's defense has been poor enough to give me hope for Philly's offense. These reasons, with Miranchuk coming in confident, makes this play a reasonable one.

Next, I want to take a look at Player Assists. Again, I would wait to see the Starting XI for Philly, but I believe it's time to get Frankie Westfield another look. Ndinga at left back should force Carnell to put Frankie on the right, and this should draw attention to both sides of the pitch. The Union haven't been an overly dangerous attack, but when Westfield is getting wide and whipping in crosses, the Union have looked better. Westfield 1+ Assist is +800 and that is a great number for a player who absolutely needs to be more involved in Philly's attack. I'm not sure if Carnell changes the formation to start the match, but if they're in the usual 4-2-2-2, then I expect Westfield to be aggressive against this mediocre backline. Next, if Bradley does change the formation, expect to see Danley in an attacking position again like we saw against Club America. If so, Jean Jacques 1+ Assist is +950. As I've said on Across the Pitch, I have confidence in Danley's ability to facilitate, and Atlanta's defense could be the perfect test for DJJ's passing.

Final Thought

We have a matchup between two clubs that are nearing panic mode. Unfortunately for Philly, Atlanta's able to put their full focus into Saturday's game, while the Union have one eye on their second match against Club America. So far, the Boys in Blue have been out of sync, and I'm not sure if these problems are corrected on the road.

After the match, join us on AAT Sports Network for another Union Post Game Show. We'll be live 10 minutes after the final whistle, so please hop in the comments and share your thoughts!! Doop