NFL Prop Bets 1.16.21 - Saturday Divisional Round Edition
Are you ready for some more playoff football today?! Of course not, you haven’t read my article yet! Don’t worry though, it won't be long until you know everything you need to know.
Los Angeles (Rams) at Green Bay – 4:35 ET
I don’t know what to say about this one. The question to me was really what over do I want to take for Rodgers or Adams. I will throw you a couple that I like then give you my selection. These are in order from least likely to win to most likely to win (in my opinion not based on odds).
First play - Davante Adams OVER 75.5 Receiving yards -112
I view this as a 50/50 and the stats back that up. He is over 7/14 (50%) with each of his overs being at least 106 receiving yards. They are facing a good defense, but it’s a game they have to win, so Rodgers certainly will be looking his way often. I believe Green Bay’s offense is better than the Rams defense so Adams will end up over 75.5 receiving yards as the Rams can’t just concentrate on taking him away. Although, as I said, this is a coin toss and to lay the -112 you need it to hit 52.8% of the time.
Second play – Aaron Rodgers OVER 1.5 Touchdown Passes -225
In my opinion this one is very likely to happen (if not Green Bay will probably be in trouble) but you have to lay -225 (69.2%) which is a lot to ask. Rodgers has missed this mark just twice all year (14/16 – 87.5% hit rate). The misses occurred in Week 15 when Aaron Jones went wild (20 for 145) and in Week 6 against Tampa Bay in what was just a miserable performance by Green Bay. I do not think it will happen a third time.
My selection - Davante Adams OVER 6.5 Receptions -134
My selection is Davante Adams over 6.5 receptions -134 (57.3%). Adams has been over 6 receptions 10 of his 14 games (71.4%), including 4 of his last 5 (80%). His one miss was Week 17 where he had 6 grabs. I wouldn’t be surprised if Adams started slow as the Rams try to take him away and make Green Bay beat them using someone else but I think Green Bay will do just that, opening things up for Adams.
Above are my three favorite plays for the Rams/Packers game. If you want a surer thing and don’t mind putting down money to get it, I can see taking the Rodgers play over Adams Receptions but for me Adams receptions has better value.
Baltimore at Buffalo – 8:15 ET
I will give you a handful of plays on this game. All happen to be Overs for the Bills and Unders for the Ravens. Word of caution I am cheering for the Bills so this could be my bias coming through.
First play - Marquise Brown UNDER 58.5 Receiving Yards – 118
Brown has certainly been better as of late but not good enough to keep me off this play. I think that the Ravens offense will be one-dimensional and will struggle throughout the game. If I am wrong on that then the Overs may hit with their plays. For this one though, Brown has gone under 59 receiving yards 11 of his 17 (64.7%) games this year and 9 of his last 12 (75%) but 2 of last 4 (50%) including last week’s playoff game. At -118 you need the under to come in 54.1% of the time so looking at the history this is a pretty good bet.
Second play - J.K. Dobbins UNDER 7.5 Receving Yards -118
Once again a -118 (54.1%) favorite. Dobbins is not being utilized in the passing game very much since he started seeing increases in his carries. In fact, he hasn’t meet this total in his last 3 games and has only twice in his last 9 (77.8% of the time he has been under). Overall, on the year he is 10 of 16 (62.5%). Anyone of those spilts would return money on this prop.
Third play - Stefon Diggs OVER 7.5 Receptions +115
This one might be a little bit of a force because I like the plus money. We only need to hit this 46.5% of the time to make this a good bet at +115 odds. Diggs has missed on this his last two games (6 and 7 receptions respectively) but has hit on it in 4 of his last 6 (66.7%). With Moss hurt I think Buffalo will throw a bit more often and Allen will be looking Diggs way.
Fourth play - Cole Beasley OVER 3.5 Receptions -175
I had this as my play but made a switch late after comparing the numbers. While it is close, the game logs are just a little worse on this one than on the next play. Beasley has gone over 3 receptions in 4 of his last 5 (80%) and 11 of 16 on the year (68.8%). I do expect Buffalo to rely on the pass a little more than they have due to the Moss injury but Gabrielle Davis’ emergence and John Brown, as well as Diggs, all have to be fed. All that said, 4 receptions isn’t too many and I expect the numbers to hold, with Beasley getting over 3.5 receptions. My play - J.K. Dobbins UNDER 1.5 Receptions -177
Most of the write up on this one is done up above so I will make it short. Dobbins hasn’t gone over 1 reception in his last 6 games and has only gone over it 5 out of 16 games this year (68.8% under). AT -177 you do need to hit it 63.9% of the time but you can see these numbers get you there.
Well that’s all folks, have fun making that money.