Today is the Sunday games of the Wild card Weekend. The games on the schedule are Baltimore at Tennessee, Chicago at New Orleans, and Cleveland (that’s right CLEVELAND!!) at Pittsburgh, they will have to try to match the great action from yesterday.
If you are interested in the process, a description is in yesterday’s article.
Baltimore at Tennessee - 1:05 ET
I am just amazed by Derrick Henry and what he has been able to accomplish, really going into last year. I really wanted to take the over on Henry but I just can’t do it at 120.5 rushing yards -110 (interestingly both the over and the under on this bet is juiced at -110, normally they are -112 on prop bets). Instead, I am going to go with a pass catcher for Baltimore. That pass catcher… Mark Andrews. In the past, I wrote of how he is coming on and it is no coincidence that his ascension has coincided with Baltimore’s. A fancy way of saying when he do good, Baltimore do good. So the play is Mark Andrews Over 56.5 Receiving Yards -112 (52.8%). Andrews was at 27 yards in week 17 (on 7 targets and 4 receptions) but was over the 57 mark (actually over 60.5) the 5 games before that. We are looking to hit this number 52.8% and in his last 6 he has hit it 83.3% of the time.
Chicago at New Orleans – 4:40 ET
I actually like a lot of the bets on this game (which scares me). But my favorite one is David Montgomery OVER 92.5 Rushing and receiving yards +100 (50.0%). Montgomery has been over 93 in his last 6 which is also when the Bears changed back to Trubisky. Over the past 3 games Montgomery has had over 20 carries as well opposed to once this year before that span. On top of that, he has been very efficient in the passing game and not in the bad way that is normally used; he is getting volume as well. He has 27 targets in his last 6 with 24 catches on those targets.
The other bets I like in this game:
Michael Thomas OVER 69.5 receiving yards -118 (54.1%)
Allen Robinson II OVER 70.5 receiving yards -118 (54.1%)
Allen Robinson II OVER 5.5 receptions -143 (58.9%)
Jared Cook OVER 2.5 receptions -117 (53.9%)
Cleveland at Pittsburgh – 8:15 ET
The play I like in this one is Chase Claypool OVER 50.5 receiving yards -121 (54.8%). Claypool went over that mark in both games against Cleveland this year (74 yards with Ben and 101 without him). He has also gone over it 7 out of his last 9 (77.8%) and his last 3. If you remember Claypool caught everyone’s attention in week 4 with his 4 touchdown performance when Diontae Johnson left early in that game. Johnson came back in week 6 (after a solid game by Claypool) and it seemed like we didn’t hear about Claypool too much thereafter. However, he has been pretty steady. We just didn’t really hear about him because his games were mainly in the 50-60 receiving yard range.
So apparently, today’s games are chalked full of overs. Normally I like a good mixture but the numbers showed good value on the overs and it fits the narrative of the game in that it plays to the team’s strengths.
Well that’s all folks, have fun making that money.
-Shaun Parrott