The Backdoor Cover - Week 7 NFL Picks

Updated: Oct 25, 2020

By: Josh Gamble

*All lines are accurate as of Friday morning*

Early on, we were looking like it was going to be a big week. A couple missed field goals and goal line stops later and we ended the week at 2-3. Not what we want but starting to trend back in the right direction. Let's take a look at the action this week.

Browns (-3) @ Bengals – Over/Under 50

The Browns are going to Browns and Baker is going to Baker. Baker Mayfield looked more like the quarterback we expected this season last week. The line in this game has been teetering between 3 and 4 all week. The public and the sharps are both on the Browns this week. Maybe they think that Baker is more like the quarterback we saw the first few weeks. I just cannot trust him or the Browns to make any kind of play here. In addition, I have an unfounded bias towards the Bengals for reasons I cannot explain. I will be staying away from this game.

Cowboys (pk) @ Football Team – Over/Under 46

The consensus of the football world is that the Cowboys would be just fine with Andy Dalton at quarterback. Last week’s performance did absolutely nothing to prove that point. If anything, it was a notch in the other column. Andy Dalton has had talent his entire career and did very little with it. Combine that with the fact that the Cowboys defense is absolutely atrocious. This line opened at a field goal in favor of America’s team and has dropped significantly down to a pick em. The puzzling part of the drop is that the cash and tickets have leaned towards the Cowboy all week long. Appears to be the odds makers are concerned more about the ability of Dalton as opposed to where the money is at. With so many questions surrounding the Cowboys and the Football Team just not being very good, I do not see a ton of value in this game at all.

Lions @ Falcons (-1) – Over/Under 55

The Falcons have not been good at winning football games, but they have been an over machine this year. Combine that with a Lions offense that looks a lot better with Golladay back in the fold and this game screams over to me. Both are of these defenses are really bad and I would expect this to be a shootout. Everyone is all over the Lions in this game, both taking the points and as the moneyline favorites. I cannot trust the Lions ability to win, or not throw away, football games so I am staying away from the spread in this game. Give me the over 55.