The Backdoor Cover - Week 3 NFL Picks

By Josh Gamble


*Lines are accurate as of Thursday morning*


Dolphins @ Jaguars (-2.5) – Over/Under 48.5

I feel like a broken record, but the NFL has done it again with another premium matchup. (Insert sarcasm here) These are two teams that are incredibly difficult to figure out. Many people are buying into Minshew Mania while Ryan Fitzpatrick keeps finding ways to put points on the board. The Dolphins came through the backdoor last weekend against the Bills in a game that I thought would not be close. This game opened as a pick em and currently sits at 2.5. There is over 90% cash on the Jags but only have around 60% of the tickets. There are some big bettors out there that like the Jags in this game. If the cash can push the line past the field goal mark, you may see some value in taking the Dolphins. With less than 12 hours until kickoff, I would find that unlikely. If the line does not make it that far then I would stay away from this game.

Raiders @ Patriots (-6) – Over/Under 47.5

The Raiders were impressive on Monday against the Saints. What remains to be seen is if that is a testament to the improvement of the Raiders or the decline of Drew Brees and the Saints. They will also need to travel across the country on a shortened week. On the other side, the Patriots are becoming one of my favorite teams to watch with Cam Newton under the helm. The line opened at 7 points and has dropped down to 6. We are now seeing an even bigger influx of cash on the Patriots. 6 points is a lot to give a team that have looked as impressive as the Raiders, but I just can’t shake the fact that they are traveling to New England on short rest. The better play to me is the over. The Patriots defense was exposed last week against the Seahawks and I would expect the Raiders to be able to score. The Raiders gave up 24 points to the Saints and the Patriots seemingly have a better offense. Take the over and hope the Raiders can show some life after a short week.

Rams @ Bills (-2.5) – Over/Under 47

This is one of the games that I am most excited to see this weekend. Both teams have been impressive offensively. With that being said, I do not see a whole lot of value when it comes to betting this game. I have a small lean on the over in this game if you have a little extra betting money and are looking for more action. Another intriguing option would be Rams moneyline at +115. For me, this is one of those games that I would rather sit back and enjoy as opposed to having action on either side.

Texans @ Steelers (-3.5) – Over/Under 45

The spread on this game is very difficult to figure out. The line has dropped a couple points from its open despite the fact that there is an overwhelming amount of cash and tickets on the Steelers. Something in the handicappers’ algorithm thinks this game will be closer than the bettors do. The Texans should have the marginally better offense in this game; however, there is a lot of talent and speed on the Steelers’ defense. I like the home favorite to cover the spread.

49ers (-4) @ Giants – Over/Under 41.5