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NFL Prop Bets 12.20.20

For those of you looking for a new voice in the prop betting world, I wanted to throw my hat in the ring. I am going to provide you with my lock for each game (that DraftKings has up) of the Sunday action. Each and every one of these is a lock (haha) so feel free to send your winnings to me as a thank you.

Early Games (1:00 EST)

Photo Courtesy of DeShaun Watson OVER 23.5 Rushing Yards -134 He has gone over 24 rushing yards his last 9 games. Enough said. Gardner Mineshew OVER 16.5 Rushing Yards -112 This one sets up to be a sweat. Minshew has gone over 17 rushing yards 6 out of his 8 games but has not rushed for more than 22 yards in any game. This seems like it should be good financial value but also seems to provide good entertainment value.

JD McKissic UNDER 3.5 Receptions +100 McKissic has gone under this number 7 times while he has gone over it 6. Why is this a good bet then? First, you are getting even money opposed to laying the normal 112. Second, McKissic went under 3.5 receptions 3 of the 4 games that Haskins was the starting QB.

Russell Gage UNDER 55.5 Receiving Yards -112 Julio Jones is out. This means the stats we are focused on are only for the games where Julio didn't play. Luckily (for this purpose), those are not in shortage. Julio sat out weeks 3, 5, 12 and 14 and also played only 21% of the snaps in week 4. Gage has only gone over this mark (55.5 receiving yards) once in these 5 games (counting week 4). I don't love that he went over it in week 14 but I believe that was a one off and not a trend. James White UNDER 20.5 Rushing Yards -118 James White has only gone over this number 2 times in his 11 games. Those two times… his first two games of the year, where he went for 21 and 22 yards respectively. Don't love that Harris is out but those numbers are hard to overcome. Allen Robinson OVER 5.5 Receptions -177 Definitely have to lay some extra coin on this one but the odds are worth it. Robinson has gone over this mark in his last 6 games (see it's a lock) and 9 out of 13 on the year (69%). The implied odds are 63.90% when you lay 177. Brandon Aiyuk OVER 5.5 Receptions -165 Once again have to lay some extra stacks but worth it. With a rookie I look at the trends. He has gone over the 5.5 in 4 of his last 5 games he's played with the one under being 5 receptions against Buffalo. Not sure if you know but Dallas is not Buffalo. Also, his target number are 16; 9; 14; and 10 over his last 4 games. The last reason is you get to yell Aiyuk after each catch. Late Games (4:00 EST) Denzel Mimi OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards +100 When was the last time Mims went under 40.5 receving yards…? His last game. When was the time before that? Never. Mims is over the 40.5 receiving yards 5 out 6 games (2 at 42 yards and his miss is 40). This one seems worth the risk at even money. Dan Arnold OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards -137 Arnold has gone over this number 9 out of his 11 games and his last 3 in a row. This one is a sneaky lock, or it may just be because I am jealous of his hair. Note: when I originally picked this one the juice was -112. Tre’Quan Smith OVER 3.5 Receptions -105 Looking at the games that Thomas has missed (oh Michael Thomas is out in case you didn't know) Smith is 5 out of 6 times. At lower juice, lock this one up. Sunday Night Football Nick Chubb OVER 74.5 Rushing Yards -118 Since Nick Chubb has come back from his injury he is 5/5 on going over 74.5 rushing yards (before injury 2/4). His lowest in that span was 80 yards. Also, I expect Cleveland to run the ball more than they have in the last couple of games getting Chubb 1-3 extra carries (conservatively 4-12 yards at a paltry 3 yards/carry). One additional one, if you can find it. Take Derrick Henry OVER rushing yards if the total is under 14,257 yards (really I would take it at 114.5 -112). He will have a big game. Well that’s all folks. Now do yourself a favor, place these bets then go back up to the picture and dream of spending your new found money on getting your locks to look like Arnold’s. -Shaun Parrott

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