NFL Prop Bets 1.24.21 - Conference Championships Edition

Conference championship Sunday!! What a great day! This year features two games that are pretty evenly matched, with both spreads being at -3.5 (Packers and Chiefs are the favorites), so the games should be competitive and fun. Plus after taking 5 minutes or so to read the following you will be getting rich. Like I said, what a great day!

Tampa Bay at Green Bay – 3:05 ET

These teams met once in the regular season with Tampa Bay blowing out Green Bay 38-10 (which was the score after 3 quarters). I will look at the game a little bit but mostly disregard it in my analysis.

First play – Tom Brady OVER 289.5 Passing Yards -106 (51.5%)

Brady has gone over 290 Passing yards in 4 of his last 5 (80%) and 5 of his last 7 (71.4%) games. He is 9 of 18 (50.0%) on the year so clearly has upped his hit rate over the latter half of the year. Antonio Brown is out for this game but I don’t expect that to hurt Brady all that much as he has plenty of weapons. He did have just 166 passing yards against the Packers when they met in the regular season but that was a unique game with a defensive score and a blowout win.

Second play – Jamaal Williams OVER 20.5 Rushing Yards -118 (54.1%)

Williams has gone over 20 rushing yards in 11 of his 15 (73.3%) games. Now two of those games were easy since Aaron Jones was out but one also saw Williams with only one carry as he got injured. I’m willing to call it 9 of his 12 (75%) of his games. Hey look at that, the odds actually went up! Bottom line is that Williams gets over 20 yards often enough to overcome the odds. Also, as a bonus, he got over that mark in their first meeting.

Third Play - Scotty Miller OVER 1.5 Receptions -167 (62.6%)

See below.

Ok, I will give you a little more than that. Miller is 4 of 4 (100%) on over 1 reception in the four games with Evans, Godwin, Miller, and Johnson as the four best active WRs (5, 5, 6, and 3 receptions respectively). This one isn’t rated as highly as the other Miller play because of the juice. I believe both are extremely likely to happen so why would I pay more?

My selection – Scotty Miller OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards -112 (52.8%)

Antonio Brown is out, leaving Tampa Bay to reorganize their depth chart. We have 4 games in which Evans, Godwin, Miller and Johnson were all active (weeks 1, 4, 6, and 7). In all of those 4 games Miller went over 22 yards receiving (in fact 35 was his lowest in week 7 with 73, 83, and 109 yards being the other weeks respectively). I really like this play. Almost as much as I like Dan Arnold’s hair.