NFL Prop Bets 1.24.21 - Conference Championships Edition
Conference championship Sunday!! What a great day! This year features two games that are pretty evenly matched, with both spreads being at -3.5 (Packers and Chiefs are the favorites), so the games should be competitive and fun. Plus after taking 5 minutes or so to read the following you will be getting rich. Like I said, what a great day!
Tampa Bay at Green Bay – 3:05 ET
These teams met once in the regular season with Tampa Bay blowing out Green Bay 38-10 (which was the score after 3 quarters). I will look at the game a little bit but mostly disregard it in my analysis.
First play – Tom Brady OVER 289.5 Passing Yards -106 (51.5%)
Brady has gone over 290 Passing yards in 4 of his last 5 (80%) and 5 of his last 7 (71.4%) games. He is 9 of 18 (50.0%) on the year so clearly has upped his hit rate over the latter half of the year. Antonio Brown is out for this game but I don’t expect that to hurt Brady all that much as he has plenty of weapons. He did have just 166 passing yards against the Packers when they met in the regular season but that was a unique game with a defensive score and a blowout win.
Second play – Jamaal Williams OVER 20.5 Rushing Yards -118 (54.1%)
Williams has gone over 20 rushing yards in 11 of his 15 (73.3%) games. Now two of those games were easy since Aaron Jones was out but one also saw Williams with only one carry as he got injured. I’m willing to call it 9 of his 12 (75%) of his games. Hey look at that, the odds actually went up! Bottom line is that Williams gets over 20 yards often enough to overcome the odds. Also, as a bonus, he got over that mark in their first meeting.
Third Play - Scotty Miller OVER 1.5 Receptions -167 (62.6%)
Ok, I will give you a little more than that. Miller is 4 of 4 (100%) on over 1 reception in the four games with Evans, Godwin, Miller, and Johnson as the four best active WRs (5, 5, 6, and 3 receptions respectively). This one isn’t rated as highly as the other Miller play because of the juice. I believe both are extremely likely to happen so why would I pay more?
My selection – Scotty Miller OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards -112 (52.8%)
Antonio Brown is out, leaving Tampa Bay to reorganize their depth chart. We have 4 games in which Evans, Godwin, Miller and Johnson were all active (weeks 1, 4, 6, and 7). In all of those 4 games Miller went over 22 yards receiving (in fact 35 was his lowest in week 7 with 73, 83, and 109 yards being the other weeks respectively). I really like this play. Almost as much as I like Dan Arnold’s hair.
Buffalo at Kansas City – 6:40 ET
Another rematch from the regular season. This game was also odd as Buffalo was determined not to let Kansas City beat them with big plays so gave up a ton of rushing yards. Will that be the game plan again?
First play - TJ Yeldon OVER 5.5 Rushing Yards -112 (52.8%)
I normally love taking unders on very low totals as I think they hit at a higher percentage. This one I have to go over, though. Zach Moss is out which has put Yeldon into the role of the backup. Buffalo did sign Devonta Freeman but I don’t view that as much of a threat at this point. Yeldon only got two carries last week that went for 4 yards but I think he may very well double (haha) his carries this week, which will lead to the over.
Second play – Josh Allen UNDER 305.5 Passing Yards +102 (49.5%)
When these teams met during the year Allen had his lowest passing yardage of the year (122) on 14 of 27 passing. What Allen did instead to make the game close (Buffalo lost 26-17) was used his legs more (8 carries for 42 yards). I look for Kansas City to come in with the same game plan and the adjustments that Allen and Bills will make will be to run more often (until Kansas City adjusts).
On the year (including the playoffs) Allen has gone over the 306 passing yard mark 9 out of 18 (50%) times including an over at 307, 311, and 312. He also was under on the last game of the year at 224 yards but didn’t play the whole game (Barkley had 164 yards). I would lean towards the under based on the full year history not taking into account the odds or my projected game script but those two put this in a bet category.
Note on these next two: - There has been a lot of movement on Edwards-Helaire making me think he is expected to have more of a role than I previously thought. Monitor this situation closely.
Third play – Darrel Williams OVER 41.5 Rushing Yards +100 (50.0%)
This one is based off of the number of touches I think Williams will get in the run game. Rumor has it that Edwards-Helaire is going to be active, if true, that could cut into Williams carries. But, Le’Veon Bell hurt his knee in practice Thursday and is questionable for the game and is reportedly considered unlikely to play. If you believe Williams won’t get the bulk of the carries then I would take the UNDER on this, if you don’t the OVER is the play.
Worth noting, when these teams met during the regular season Edwards-Helaire ran for 161 yards on 26 carries. However, Buffalo’s defensive captain, Jordan Poyer, said Buffalo’s game plan is a lot different for this game. Why you say that publicly, I don’t know.
My play - Darrel Williams more Rushing yards than Devin Singletary -115 (53.5%)
Not going to lie, I don’t normally look at matchups during the full slates but I did today since there are fewer games.
I like the Williams side of this one for all the reasons listed above under Williams going over 41.5 rushing yards. So we are putting Williams at 42 Rushing yard. Let’s take a look at Singletary’s rushing history. He hasn’t been at 42 rushing yards in his last four games and missed that mark on 11 of his 18 (61.1%) games. Also, I can’t really see a game where Singletary goes wild but can see a game where Williams does. Singletary is likely only going to win in a pass heavy game where he ends up with 50 yards or so and that’s enough to beat Williams.
Well that’s all folks, have fun making that money.