The Backdoor Cover - Week 6 NFL Picks

Updated: Oct 18, 2020

By: Josh Gamble


We had another tough week, but as long as we are managing our bankrolls correctly, this a marathon and not a sprint. On the season, we are still above 50% and one good week will bring us back over the magic 60% mark. Bringing this to you guys a bit late this week as I did not want to post any picks until we had a somewhat better idea how the games would be affected by the new positive tests.

*Lines are accurate as of Saturday afternoon*

Broncos @ Patriots (-8.5) – Over/Under 45

There is a chance that both teams could have their starting quarterbacks back this week. That is definitely something to keep an eye on. Outside of that, I do not see much intrigue with this game. The betting on this game has been pretty even with a 60% split between the teams on cash and tickets. There is a ton of cash on the under in this game. If you are looking for a bet in this game, that would likely be the one, especially if one or both of the starting quarterbacks do not play.

Bengals @ Colts (-7.5) – Over/Under 46

Nobody loves Joe Burrow more than I do; however, last week was a massive disappointment. It was bound to happen with rookie quarterback. The real question now is how does he bounce back this week after a disappointing performance last week? The line sits at the magic number of 7.5 currently; however, there are too many questions for me to take that number. If there is any value in this game, it lies in the total. It is one of the lowest this week making the over very intriguing.

Lions (-3) @ Jaguars – Over/Under 54.5

This is a game that you will need to wait to bet it once you know it is actually going to be played. The Jaguars had a positive test on Saturday and closed their facilities. Keep a close eye on the situation. If they play this game, the sharp money is all over the Lions to cover the spread. The total is the most intriguing to me. Both of these defenses are terrible and the offenses have played relatively well this season. I just do not see either team stopping the other a whole lot. I am taking the over.

Falcons @ Vikings (-4) – Over/Under 54

I told myself that I would stay as far away from the Falcons as I could for the rest of this year. I lied to myself. I just cannot resist this matchup. I do not see a ton of value in the line with the way that the Falcons have been playing. Both of these offenses are good and both of these defenses are bad. I do not even care if Julio plays or not. Give me the over.

Football Team @ Giants (-3) – Over/Under 43

Both of these teams are t