The Backdoor Cover - Week 4 NFL Picks

By: Josh Gamble


*All lines accurate as of Thursday morning*


Normally, I would be ecstatic about going 4-1 in last week’s five picks but I can’t help but feel a little disappointment. Don’t get me wrong, I am certainly happy with last week’s outcome; however, the Titans loss sticks out to me. The likely cause is that I felt it was the best bet last week (hence the 2 units). Sometimes the correct bet loses and we still ended the week up roughly 2 units. Enough with focusing on the past, let’s look to find some opportunities to make some money in this week’s slate.

Broncos @ Jets (-1) – Over/Under 41

The Jets are a brutal football team. The only team that may be worse is the Giants. The Jets are so bad that Vegas only has them as a 1-point favorite at home to a team that is starting their third string quarterback. Personally, I don’t think the Jets are quite that bad and the Broncos generally don’t play as well on the road as they do in Denver. I do see some value in taking the Jets to cover the one point or moneyline to win (-120). The total has also remained flat since the open so there may be an opportunity as it is on the extreme low end. Too many questions on Denver’s offense with a young quarterback for me to bet the total.

Colts (-2) @ Bears – Over/Under 43

It will be interesting to see what the Bears offense will look like for a full game with Nick Foles as their quarterback. They seemed to be rejuvenated last week after the benching of Mitchell Trubisky. The Colts have looked good the past couple of weeks; however, one of those was against the Jets and the other against the Vikings that visibly struggled to start the season. This should be one of the closer games this week and I do see some value in the Bears moneyline at +120. If you don’t feel comfortable on the moneyline, I would take the points. It’s hard to bet against an undefeated team at home that just made a switch at quarterback that should make their team better.

Saints (-4) @ Lions – Over/Under 54

The Lions are coming off a big road win against the Cardinals. That being said, the inconsistency of the Lions this year makes them a tough bet each week. (Other than our nice moneyline hit last week!) The Saints need to hope that Michael Thomas is ready to play so they can rely on someone other than Alvin Kamara. I do not see a ton of value in the spread on either side of this game. The only bet that is possibly intriguing is the total. I know that 54 is a lot points, but the total has actually dropped 2 points since its open. I won’t be taking the over, but the point decrease certain makes it a value play to consider.

Cardinals (-3.5) @ Panthers – Over/Under 51.5

The public likes the Cardinals in this game and the sharps like the Panthers. 3.5 is always a tough line for me to bet on either side. If we get any movement down below a field goal based on the amount of cash coming in on the Panthers, then I would snatch that up. As of right now, the spread and the total both look unplayable to me.