I started out the Saturday pretty well (2/3 plus hitting my selection) but that didn’t last too long as the Saturday night game was a disaster going 1/5 (including missing my selection). Here’s hoping that today is better.
Cleveland at Kansas City – 3:05 ET
First play – Kareem Hunt OVER 2.5 Receptions +105 (48.8%)
This one comes down to game flow and gut. If Kansas City puts up a lot of points then Cleveland will be forced into more of a passing offense, which will make Hunt be on the field more often. If that is the case then Hunt will get over 2 receptions. Hunt has gone over this mark 8 times out of his 17 (47.1%) games. Like I said, this is more of a gut/game script play not a numbers play. Hunt is 5/9 (55.6%) since Chubb has returned from his injury though (0-2 in his last two, both against PIT).
Second play – Patrick Mahomes OVER 22.5 Rushing Yards -112 (52.8%)
In playoff games quarterbacks do whatever they need to in order to win games. In this case I think that means Mahomes will find himself running a little more than he did in the regular season like he did in last year's playoffs (over in all three games). He has been over this number 7 out of his 15 games (46.7%). He also has two misses where he got 21 rushing yards. I think the extra motivation to sell out for every yard changes those two to overs. 9/15 would put this at 60% and a clear winner.
My selection - Kareem Hunt OVER 50.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards -118 (54.1%)
This goes to the first write up. It’s a little based on gut and game flow but you also get the rushing yards involved and have better game history. After Chubbs’ return, Hunt has gone over 50.5 combined rushing and receiving yards 5 out of the 8 games (62.5%). Unsurprisingly, Hunt went over 50.5 combined rushing and receiving yardsevery game when Chubb was out, a little more surprisingly though, Hunt was over in the four games before Chubb’s injury.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans – 6:40 ET
This is a rare occasion where we can look at history between the teams on multiple occasions so I will be doing that more so than the whole season. I thought I would have a bunch of plays on this one but only ended up with two.
First play - Leonard Fournette UNDER Rushing Yards 38.5 +100 (50.0%)
Monitor the injury report on this one. If you happen to catch it, check out the odds. If Ronald Jones is playing then I expect this one to go under. Even if he isn’t I like Fournette going under. Fournette has been under 38.5 rushing yards 2 out of 4 (50%) games since he came back from injury but was under the 4 games before that. He was also under in the two games against the Saints albeit both with Jones playing. Also, the Bucs have been quick to abandon the run game which could happen again in this one like they did in November when they last met.